Earthquake in Istanbul
Lily Donahue | 27 May 2025
Summary
Istanbul was hit by a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in late April; the quake caused no fatalities and the collapse of only one abandoned building.
Despite a position on active fault lines, Turkey is hindered by poor construction safety measures, the most significant of which is the controversial construction amnesties programme.
That this earthquake was relatively non-destructive may make it easier for Erdoğan to downplay the urgency of comprehensive building reforms.
The Turkish metropolis of Istanbul was jolted by a 6.2 magnitude earthquake on 23 April 2025, causing alarm among residents in a city historically devastated by deadly tremors and situated directly on a seismic fault line. The quake originated in the Sea of Marmara, and lasted 13 seconds. Occurring on a national holiday, more people were at home; there were no fatalities, but 151 people were injured after jumping off balconies in attempts to reach the street.
The Kandilli Observatory, a Turkish earthquake research centre, has posited that there is a 64% chance of Istanbul experiencing a 7-magnitude earthquake within the next five years. For comparison, the 2023 twin earthquakes that left at least 55,000 people dead in Turkey and Syria - though experts estimate the actual fatality toll could be as high as 200,000 - were a 7.6 and 7.7 in magnitude.
Destructive quakes prompted the creation of stricter construction regulations that mandate earthquake-resistant designs for new structures. However, enforcement of these standards has been lax, particularly in a nation where estimates suggest more than half of buildings are constructed without proper legal authorisation. Two such attempts - the 2007 Turkish Earthquake Regulation and the updated 2018 Turkish Building Earthquake Code - established new design codes for new builds and retrofits for older buildings. A 2024 amendment allowed a retrofitting permit to be granted if the majority of a building’s owners agreed. However, such proposals - fixation on whether a minority ownership would deny retrofits - overlooked more dangerous culprits within Turkey’s construction practices.
Though Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan slammed inferior building practices and poor oversight for fatalities after a 2011 earthquake- “Municipalities, constructors and supervisors should now see that their negligence amounts to murder.” - his own government benefited from amnesty measures for unauthorised construction, generating an estimated USD 3B in income and allowing for the construction of unsafe buildings. Such amnesties (İmar affı or imar barışı) allow builders to register buildings not up to code for a fee. The impact was destructive: in the southern city of Kahramanmaraş, Erdoğan praised the amnesty programme in 2018, claiming it solved the housing problems of “144,556 people”. Maraş would be one of the hardest hit cities in the quakes, 5 years later, which left thousands in the city dead.
But Erdoğan rose to power on the back of an earthquake: in a 1999 quake that killed 18,000 people, Erdoğan, fresh off a stint as Istanbul mayor, slammed a weak governmental response. His criticism did him well: he would become president four years later. And indeed, the amnesty practice that summoned such fury was not scrapped: from the 1950s to 2002, construction amnesty was implemented approximately eight times. It was granted nine times between 2002 and 2023. Despite its dangers, construction amnesty remained broadly popular - even the main opposition party gave its support. In Kahramanmaraş alone, 39,000 registration certificates for poorly constructed buildings were issued.
The anti-Erdoğan contingent made themselves known, though, at the time of writing, did not address the construction amnesties that could lead to heavy fatalities. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu expressed his "greatest sadness” that he was unable to be with the residents of Istanbul after the earthquake. Imamoğlu, a significant opposition voice, was arrested last month on terrorism and corruption charges, which he denies. Speaking from prison, Imamoğlu called for “national and international mobilisation,” warning against further development on the Kanal İstanbul, a government-backed waterway which critics emphasise could increase earthquake risks.
In the mayoral elections, Imamoğlu bested Erdoğan-backed Marat Kurum, despite Kurum’s prioritisation of earthquake resilience throughout his campaign. While Kurum admitted “construction amnesty doesn’t mean the building is sturdy” in 2019, he backed the controversial Kanal İstanbul project and further backed a controversial law enabling government appropriation of areas “deemed at risk of disasters such as earthquakes”. This raised concerns about potential environmental degradation through unchecked urban development. Further, critics warn the law “lacks clear criteria for identifying disaster-prone areas.”
Anna Berdnik/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Government officials are likely to frame the lower casualty count as evidence of improving regulations.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
Insurance costs in high-risk zones will likely elevate, worsening the country’s economic crisis: Turkish real estate has experienced a substantial decline, with nationwide home prices actually dropping 7.16% year-over-year as of January 2025.
Long-term (>1 year)
A major earthquake is likely to impact Istanbul and Western Turkey, which will almost certainly lead to fatalities and infrastructural damage.
