The Growth of Farmer-Herder Violence in Nigeria
Hugo Folliss | 26 May 2025
Summary
Nigeria has faced increased violence amongst farmers and pastoralists, as desertification reduces the amount of available grazing lands.
The violence threatens Nigeria’s economic outlook as its agricultural industry is an important aspect of its economy.
The continuation of violence in the medium term is likely to have a high impact on Nigeria’s ability to counter terrorist threats.
For over a decade, northern Nigeria has been subjected to increased violence between farmers and pastoralists. By 2021, over 15,000 deaths had been linked to the violence, with half of those occurring since 2018. The violence has spread beyond Nigeria’s north and into the south as increased droughts and desertification have pushed pastoralists away from their traditional grazing areas in the Sahelian belt. The violence has been exacerbated by the fractured security framework in Nigeria, the proliferation of weaponry, and the spread of misinformation that links the violence to extremist terrorism. The latter point refers to the polarisation of the conflict along ethnic, regional, and religious lines, with the pastoralists mostly classified as Muslim-Fulani, whilst the farmers are generally Christians from numerous ethnic groups. The Nigerian government has made a number of attempts to solve the conflict and established the Ministry of Livestock Development in 2024.
The agriculture sector made up 28.65% of Nigeria’s GDP in the third quarter of 2024, even amidst the climate of increased violence. It is one of Nigeria’s most important industries and is overwhelmingly represented by pastoralists rather than commercial ranches, with over 80% of Nigeria’s meat coming from pastoralists. The effect of desertification has already put pressure on the industry, leading to a decline in food production that has negatively affected food security and inflation. The economic impact of desertification pushed the pastoralists further south, threatening cultivated fields and forcing pastoralists to rely on illicit means to provide for their herds, such as moving into national parks. To try and stem the violence, anti-open grazing laws have been implemented in 17 states; however, enforcement is often challenged by a lack of resources or political backing.
The rise of violence between these groups has also highlighted a much larger issue: the breakdown of traditional methods of conflict resolution that threatens social cohesion as pastoralists move further away from their traditional grazing lands, and with increased private cultivation of land. The lack of legally defined protections for pastoralists suggests they are increasingly threatened by these matters. The spread of misinformation also provides a source for increased enmity between groups, with social media often focusing on the ethnic or religious tensions between the groups rather than ascertaining the source of the violence. For instance, Christian groups have purported that since 2019, 7,400 deaths can be attributed to pastoralist violence, whilst SBM intelligence puts the number at 542.
The Livestock Ministry has also been beset by these issues, with politicians suggesting that the ministry would favour pastoralists due to their religion over the concerns of farmers. Furthermore, the supposed biases of the government are presumed to be present in the security forces, with public confidence in them one of the lowest in the region. Nigerian security forces face a variety of threats from extremist groups who can exploit the conflicts to recruit disenfranchised youths. The criminality in the country has led to the proliferation of firearms, further intensifying any conflicts between the groups. In a complex security environment where traditional means of conflict resolution are breaking down and with a plethora of criminal organisations intent on taking advantage of the situation, Nigerian security forces must be aware of what scenarios they are responding to, to deal with them effectively.
John Mauremootoo/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Forecast
Medium-term (3-12 months)
These violent clashes will highly likely continue in the medium term, as the government has not presented an effective means to mediate potential conflicts having a high impact on Nigeria’s domestic environment.
The Ministry of Livestock Development will likely struggle to effectively protect against future attacks without a process of civilian engagement that has a high impact on the economic output of the agricultural industry.
Long-term (>1 year)
It is highly likely that if misinformation is not contested, terrorist groups will be able to take advantage and recruit more fighters, having a very high impact on Nigeria’s ability to counter terrorist threats.
More pressure will likely be put on pastoralists due to the effects of climate change, which may have a high impact on their traditional lifestyles.
It is unlikely that the Ministry of Livestock Development will be able to deal with the rising level of violence without a coordinated effort with security forces and a focus on rebuilding traditional means of conflict resolution, posing a high risk to public safety.
