2024 Turkish Local Elections
Elif Bas | 3 April 2024
Summary
Türkiye held its local elections on 31st March, with the current opposition party CHP consolidating power in major cities Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. CHP emerged victorious in 35 provinces, marking a clear defeat of President Erdoğan’s AKP party.
With CHP’s İmamoğlu winning a second term as mayor of Istanbul, along with the failed attempt to regain a majority in parliament by the AKP, implying Erdoğan cannot amend the constitution to remove the term limit for presidents, prohibiting him from rerunning in 2028.
Türkiye will likely continue to face uncertainty and instability short term, as Erdoğan remains in power until 2028 and will likely showcase attempts to secure his position. However, İmamoğlu will most likely run as a strong presidential candidate in the elections, ending AKP’s over two-decade long rule of Türkiye and opening possibilities to redirect the country’s trajectory.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: USD 1.34 trillion (2024)
GDP per capita: USD 15,370 (2024)
HDI: 0.855 (2021)
Official currency: Turkish Lira
Demography
Population: 85.8 million (2023)
Ethnic composition (2022)
Turkish 70% & Kurdish 19%
Religion (2019)
88% Sunni Muslims
6% No religion and 4% Alevi
Electoral System
Local Elections are held every 5 years to elect municipality mayors, district mayors, provincial or municipal council members and ‘muhtars’
A 10% threshold applies to the municipal council, mayoral candidates are elected through direct popular votes
Major Political Parties & Candidates
AKP (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi - Justice and Development Party)
Türkiye’s ruling party since 2002.
Ideology: positions itself as a conservative-democratic, while third parties often classify is as right-wing populist, neo-Ottoman, and nationalist.
The party became increasingly authoritarian after the 2011 Gezi Park protests under Erdoğan’s rule.
Currently with 268 out of the 600 in the Parliament, as elected in 2023.
CHP (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi - Republican People's Party)
Main opposition since 2002, founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the first president of Türkiye.
Ideology: social democratic, centre-left, with a strong emphasis on Kemalism, entailing nationalism, republicanism, and secularism.
Currently with 169 out of the 600 seats in parliament.
MHP (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi - Nationalist Action Party)
Formed in 1969 and currently part of the ruling “People’s Alliance” with AKP
Highly controversial far-right ultranationalist party, with alleged ties to organised crime organisations and paramilitaries.
Currently with 50 out of the 600 seats in parliament.
YRP (Yeniden Refah Partisi - New Welfare Party)
Founded in 2018, successor of the Welfare Party a popular Islamist party in the 1990s
Ideology: Islamist and conservative
Won two provinces and 6.19% of the vote indicating an increase in support for the far-right, replacing the moderate nationalist right IYI party.
Currently with 5 out of the 600 seats in parliament.
DEM Party (Halkların Eşitlik ve Demokrasi Partisi - Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party)
Since 2023 as the successor of the left wing pro-Kurdish HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party).
Predominantly ruling southeastern provinces with a majority Kurdish population.
Historically, pro-Kurdish parties have been accused of having ties to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), which is a designated terrorist organisation in Türkiye, causing the continuous closure cases and new formations of the minority rights party.
Currently no seats in parliament.
IYI Party (The Good Party)
Established in 2017, due to discrepancies within MHP on the 2017 Constitutional Referendum and considered as an alternative to the MHP and AKP.
Ideology: Nationalism, Secularism and Kemalism.
Currently 43 with 600 seats in parliament.
Governing one province, with only 3.77% of nationwide votes, as of now.
Amidst an ongoing cost of living crisis, sky-high inflation of nearly 70% and one million new voters, Türkiye held its local elections on Sunday. The opposition party, CHP, won 37.76% of the votes, overtaking the ruling AKP’s 35.48% marginally. However, CHP has gained 14 provinces since the last elections and secured 35 out of 81 provinces, becoming the dominant player in Turkish politics. In the capital, Ankara, and the major city of Istanbul, CHP strengthened its presence, with candidates securing decisive victories. Overall, the result is a clear stance against Erdoğan’s policies and want for change.
In Istanbul, Erdoğan strategically endorsed former urbanisation and environment minister, Murat Kurum, addressing the critique of mishandling last year's earthquake response. Kurum prioritised infrastructure enhancement and seismic resilience in his campaign, as experts suggest a continuous risk of earthquakes due to Istanbul's position on two tectonic plates. Nevertheless, İmamoğlu won with 51.14% of the votes, securing his position in Istanbul and emerging as a strong candidate for the 2028 presidential elections. In comparison, during the 2019 elections, CHP had formed a six-party coalition to secure the Mayoral Office in Istanbul, yet İmamoğlu won with a 0.3% margin.
Erdoğan, who began his political career as mayor of Istanbul in 1994 suffered a significant loss with these results, particularly losing Istanbul, as it is considered an unwritten rule that "Istanbul'u alan Türkiye'yi alır" (“Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Türkiye”) symbolically and in terms of power. After this defeat, AKP’s future past the presidential election seems uncertain, as Erdoğan has yet to endorse a successor.
Although the local election results serve as a stepping stone towards political change, short-term Erdoğan is set on continuing his Medium-Term Economic Policy (OVP), causing uncertainty, and inflating the Lira further, despite experts attributing his defeat to the economic decline. In his remaining four years, the president is likely to attempt to reinforce not only his but also the AKP party’s power to ensure its survival beyond his rule. Yet the hidden champion of this election is the far-right New Welfare Party, which overtook the established nationalist MHP and IYI parties. The combined 14.95% support for right-wing national parties is likely traceable to the high influx of refugees, currently sheltering 3.6 million Syrian displaced people, making the country the world's leading refugee host. Campaigns from parties across the spectrum addressed this, reflecting a strong desire to decrease the refugee population. Considering its prevalence in 15% of the population, the rise in xenophobia should not be underestimated and could potentially become a cause for social tensions.
As for the opposition, having received more votes than in the past 20 years, CHP has re-established itself as a potential ruling party. This would come with drastic changes in all domains of politics, domestically and internationally. Under a CHP government, the country will likely undergo economic reform, expand civil liberties and increase investments in education and healthcare. The promotion of democratic governance could put peaceful negotiations regarding granting Kurd cultural and political rights. Internationally, CHP has been supportive of joining the European Union, thus we would likely observe increased efforts of cooperating and aligning with Europe.
Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term:
Erdoğan will likely attempt to consolidate power during the remainder of his presidential term.
Investors’ anticipation of a surge in urban development based on Kurum’s campaign pledges will result in losses and stock declines in the construction industry, particularly Istanbul-based firms, potentially allowing for public-private partnerships to cover losses. Erdoğan will likely attempt to consolidate power during the remainder of his presidential term.
Medium-term
Both CHP and AKP have their sights set on the 2028 elections and will most likely strategically prepare to achieve their respective best possible outcomes. A continuation of AKP's economic policies will likely hamper economic recovery and a reduction of inflation until 2026. Foreign investors are likely to exercise caution and refrain from large investments until the country demonstrates stability.
Long-term
İmamoğlu will likely win the 2028 presidential elections for CHP, marking the end of Türkiye’s decline into authoritarianism and opening up possibilities for international cooperation and stronger ties to the EU with possible reopening of accession negations if requirements are met.