Guinea's Junta Dissolves Government
Sara Etukudo | 2 April 2024
Summary
A decree was read on national television on 19th February 2024 by the presidency’s Secretary-General, Brig Gen Amara Camara, without any explanation about the dissolution or when a new government will be put in place.
As the junta strives to establish a new administration amid international pressure and internal discontent, the world waits to see if Guinea could fall back into the routine of corruption or move forward on the path to stability and democracy.
If Guinea’s political instability persists over the next few months and they are unable to hold elections in December, it could lead to prolonged economic downturn and social unrest.
A decree was read on national television on 19th February by the president’s Secretary-General, Brig Gen Amara Camara, without explaining the dissolution or when a new government would be put in place. Statements released by the Chief of Army General Staff, Ibrahim Sory Bangoura, stated that the members of the dissolved government had their bank accounts frozen, were ordered to return their official vehicles, and were required to surrender their passports and aid personnel promptly. Additionally, their bodyguards would have to end their services. The junta were also instructed to “seal” the country’s borders until the government had fully transitioned into the hands of the junta. Deputy ministers and low-ranking officials will manage the ministerial departments until the appointment of a new government.
The National Committee of Reconciliation and Development (CNRD) is the ruling military junta that took power in September 2021. Colonel Mamady Doumbouya led Guinea’s armed forces to overthrow elected President Alpha Condé, after a series of protests erupted over the president’s unconstitutional attempt for a third presidential term in 2020. During the demonstrations against Condé’s third term, dozens of people were killed after clashes with the police force and hundreds more were arrested. Opposition politicians who were challenging the legitimacy of the president’s mandate were met with repression. Doumbouya revealed that he was preventing Guinea from slipping into chaos and condemned the previous government for broken promises. Subsequent to the 2021 coup d’etat, Guinea was suspended from the African Union, La Francophonie and ECOWAS. Under international pressure, Doumbouya promised to hold elections and return the government back to elected civilians by the end of 2024.
In 10 months, the agreement between the military leaders in Guinea and ECOWAS to hold elections and restore democratic rule is set to expire. The dissolution of Guinea’s government marks a pivotal moment in the country’s history. Guinea’s coup does differ from the rest of the military takeovers in West Africa. The Guinean junta has assured that the leaders of the transitional military authority are prohibited from serving in the new government. Furthermore, the military regime has also refused to join the alliance of military juntas in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali who have disputed with ECOWAS while acknowledging each other’s illegitimate claims to power.
Despite Guinea’s efforts to ensure a peaceful transition, the actions undertaken by the junta have left civilians questioning if the timetable for a return to democratic constitutional rule will be respected or if the regime is intentionally delaying it. Those who criticise the regime, such as journalists or civil society leaders, have been met with intimidation and arrests. Since 2022, protests have been banned, several media outlets have faced restrictions, and internet access has been periodically suspended. Whilst condemned, these coups are seen as the dramatic shift driven by the younger generation’s desire to rid Guinea of neo-colonial influences, particularly France.
Dominic Chavez/World Bank/Flickr
Forecast
Short-term: It is likely tensions will escalate as government crackdowns on dissent are expected to lead to further intimidation, arrests and suppression of freedom of speech in the coming weeks.
Medium-term: Over the next several months, the success of Guinea's transition to democracy hinges on the junta’s ability to navigate internal and external pressures and establish a credible and inclusive electoral process.
Long-term: If Guinea’s political instability persists over the next few months and it is unable to hold elections in December, it will likely lead to a prolonged economic downturn and social unrest.
