US Abstention from the UN Security Council on the Gaza Ceasefire Resolution
4 March 2024
Summary
The UN Security Council has recently passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, with the US abstaining rather than vetoing the resolution.
US’ abstention reflects a growing concern with how Israel is engaging in the conflict, which Israel condones and disagrees with.
This abstention will likely increase pressure on US-Israel relations and change Israel’s trajectory within the Middle East and the conflict.
On 25th March 2024, the United Nations Security Council finally passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The resolution, drafted by the Council's ten non-permanent members (Algeria, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Republic of Korea, Japan, Slovenia, Guyana, Ecuador, Malta, and Switzerland), came after months of diplomatic gridlock with the US vetoing the previous resolutions. However, with the US abstaining on the 25th, the current resolution had called for a pause in fighting and the release of hostages taken by Hamas when they attacked Israel on 7th October 2023.
This sudden change in decision reflects the Biden administration's growing concern with Israel's engagement in the conflict, which was accompanied by international pressure over civilian casualties and humanitarian access. This sudden decision blindsided Israel, as they expected the US to veto the measure as they had done in previous resolutions. This has caused Prime Minister Netanyahu to cancel a visit to the US and condone them for not conditioning the ceasefire on hostage releases.
As a result, with the US abstaining from the UN resolution, Israel may become more cautious in its military actions to avoid further misalignment with the US. However, this shift in the US decision also emboldens Palestinian factions and their international supporters. This may, in turn, create a power vacuum that other regional actors like Iran can exploit. Therefore, Israel's response to the US abstention will determine the long-term impact of the conflict, potentially leading to either increased isolation or renewed efforts for dialogue and compromise.
Forecast
Short-term: The resolution will build up diplomatic pressure on Israel to restrain its operations within Gaza, but Israel will likely continue its operations as it deems them essential for their protection. This will keep tensions high between the US and Israel.
Medium-term: If fighting continues, the US may take further steps to press Israel, such as delaying arms transfers. However, the US will try to balance Israel's right to self-defence and mitigate civilian casualties. Much will depend on if any hostages are released.
Long-term: The US abstention creates a mark in the US-Israel ties under Netanyahu, meaning that trust will be slow to rebuild, especially if Israel defies US calls for restraint. However, the countries' strong underlying alliance will likely endure, given their shared interests within the region.