Where Does Kyiv Go From Here? Ukraine in the Face of a Second Trump Presidency
Lily Donahue | 16 December 2024
Summary
Donald Trump has been re-elected as 47th President of the United States.
Despite collective worry about the future of American aid to Ukraine, it is possible that Trump will not be the cause of immediate defunding if only out of lack of interest.
The Kremlin, who certainly did not love Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, may be cooling on Trump.
Former President, and only president with prior felony convictions, Donald Trump has won the election for the President of the United States, beating Vice President Kamala Harris and becoming the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.
Trump, who famously promised to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours,” has operated under the dubious assumption that he - unlike current President Joe Biden - is “respected by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” a sentiment that he believes will allow him to quickly draw the war to a close. Of course, the notion that Putin - who once paraded his labrador in front of a famously dog-averse Angela Merkel, has said he can forgive everything “except betrayal”, and is thought to have approved several assassination attempts on opposition voices - respects Trump is absurd.
Certainly, Biden was not popular in Kremlin circles; Kamala Harris, reminiscent of Hillary Clinton, was arguably worse. (Former President Dmitry Medvedev crowed about Harris’ defeat on X, bizarrely writing that she could keep “cackling infectiously”.) Biden’s perceived name-calling (Putin as both average “criminal” and, more bluntly, “war criminal”) was not something Putin would be willing to forget anytime soon. But the Kremlin is pragmatic, and would have worked with who they got. Trump, however, is erratic. Though a known, and preferred, entity, Trump’s impulsivity is likely giving Moscow some pause. While better than Harris, Moscow remembers that Trump allowed - or at least, did not obstruct - Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to provide 61 billion USD in aid to Ukraine. Trump also gave the go-ahead for aid to Ukraine in 2019. Should Republicans of an older order - not the Trump devotees of the Freedom Caucus - gain enough congressional seats, support for Ukraine may continue in some form, albeit dented. This is, admittedly, a big if.
Incoming Vice President JD Vance, who has slammed increased funding to Ukraine, has advocated a ceasefire plan - Russia retaining land it has captured, demilitarisation along the frontline, and nominal security guarantees to Ukraine - that is highly favourable to the Kremlin, allowing it to maintain occupied territory. While some have pointed to the apparent decline in Trump’s mental acuity as evidence Vance will play a larger role in presidential affairs, Trump’s evident distaste for his own VP may mean he tries to curtail Vance.
It is also likely that Putin does not appreciate Trump’s bleating regarding how he will be able to bring him and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table. It undermines Putin’s self-perception of ultimate power, and furthermore has no teeth behind it: how, exactly, will Trump accomplish this? Trump’s war-ending proposal relies on Putin being interested in and willing to negotiate. There is little evidence to suggest this will happen. While Zelenskyy has congratulated Trump on his win, likely in the hopes he can secure some good favour for a continued US-Ukraine relationship, Putin will be invested in continuing his war. (Tellingly, at time of writing, he has not congratulated Trump because the US remains an “unfriendly country.”) Negotiation wins him precious little, and fighting at least presents the potential for more. For a leader who places significant value on winning - or appearing to win - there is little to win here. For Zelenskyy, who has committed to a full Ukrainian victory, including reclaiming Crimea, there is little reason to believe Trump could negotiate some positive deal, and even less reason to want it. This is especially true because Trump’s version of diplomacy relies entirely on telling both sides to negotiate or he will simply give the other side more. His former team are slightly more circumspect: a May publication by former Trump national security chiefs argued for a continued weapon supply if Kyiv agrees to negotiations, and for barring Ukraine from NATO. It is plausible, however, that Trump will not feel beholden to such guidelines.
Euromaidan Press
Forecast
Short-term
The Biden administration is reportedly looking to push through the last 6 billion USD to Ukraine before Trump takes office. The practicalities of such a move are immense, and it is possible Trump could stop shipments if they stall.
It is unlikely Trump will be able to provide enough incentive to either Putin or Zelenskyy to end the war. Indeed, Russia may scale up its efforts in the months before the inauguration.
Currently, the future for Ukraine looks bleak: a likely partition on the frontline in the case of a ceasefire, and exclusion from NATO membership.