Wagner’s Exit from Mali Marks Shift in Russian Strategy Amid Rising Instability in the Sahel
Alex Blackburn | 20 June 2025
Summary
Wagner Group has withdrawn from Mali after over three years of operations, claiming to have completed its mission of reclaiming territory from jihadist groups and stabilising key regions alongside Mali's military junta.
Despite Wagner’s exit, Russian influence remains through the Africa Corps, a Kremlin-backed paramilitary group formed after Wagner's failed mutiny, which will focus on training, logistics, and targeted operations.
The security situation in Mali is likely to deteriorate or remain volatile in the immediate aftermath of Wagner’s departure. Recent jihadist attacks, including the deadly assault on the Boulkessi base, underscore the persistent threat posed by armed groups such as JNIM. With Malian forces withdrawing from strategic positions, there will be growing concerns over the military's capacity to hold territory and defend civilian populations.
The Wagner Group, a notorious Russian paramilitary organisation, officially announced its withdrawal from Mali after more than three and a half years of military operations. The departure marks the end of a significant chapter in Russia’s military involvement in the West African nation, where Wagner forces had partnered with Mali’s military junta to combat a growing Islamist insurgency. In a statement posted on the group’s Telegram channel, Wagner claimed it had successfully completed its mission by reclaiming regional centres from jihadist control, killing thousands of militants and their commanders, and supporting the Malian army in stabilising key territories.
Since its arrival in Mali in 2021, Wagner has played a pivotal role in the country’s evolving geopolitical landscape. The deployment followed Mali’s cooling relations with France, which withdrew its troops in 2022 after nearly a decade of military support to a civilian-led government. As French forces left, Mali's military junta embraced Russian support, particularly from Wagner, to fill the security vacuum. However, recent developments suggest that Wagner’s strategy may have reached its limit concerning operational sustainability and political utility.
Despite Wagner’s exit, Russian military influence in Mali is far from over. Its withdrawal coincides with the rising prominence of the Africa Corps, another Kremlin-backed paramilitary outfit designed to inherit Wagner’s roles across Africa. The Africa Corps was established following Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny against the Russian military in June 2023; a move that is emblematic of the Kremlin’s intentions to rebrand and reorganise its overseas paramilitary efforts while maintaining strategic leverage in geopolitically sensitive regions.
According to statements from both Wagner and the African Corps, Russian fighters will continue supporting the Malian military but under a different command structure. The Africa Corps is expected to concentrate on the capital, Bamako, and play a role in targeted airstrikes, rather than engaging in widespread ground combat. Furthermore, Russian military advisers are stepping in to provide training and logistical support, signalling a move toward a more sustainable, lower-profile Russian military presence.
This reconfiguration comes amid a renewed wave of violence in Mali. In recent weeks, the jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has launched several deadly attacks, including one on the Boulkessi army base that reportedly killed over 30 Malian soldiers. Malian troops have abandoned multiple positions, including the strategic Boulkessi base, prompting questions about the efficacy of both Malian forces and their foreign allies.
The long-term implications of Wagner’s withdrawal are multi-layered. On one hand, it allows Russia to recalibrate its foreign military engagements, replacing a controversial and independent mercenary group with a more centrally controlled force. This move may offer the Kremlin tighter oversight and accountability, avoiding the political fallout associated with Wagner’s past abuses and operational freelancing.
However, the transition also exposes the challenges of maintaining stability in Mali and the broader Sahel region. While Africa Corps and Russian advisers may provide continued support, their reduced footprint may limit the effectiveness of counterinsurgency operations, particularly in remote or contested regions. This suggests that Russia’s future role may centre more on arms supplies, training, and intelligence support rather than direct engagement on the battlefield.
aharan_kotogo/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
The security situation in Mali is likely to deteriorate or remain volatile in the immediate aftermath of Wagner’s departure. Recent jihadist attacks, including the deadly assault on the Boulkessi base, underscore the persistent threat posed by armed groups such as JNIM. With Malian forces withdrawing from strategic positions, there will be growing concerns over the military's capacity to hold territory and defend civilian populations.
Logistical challenges and possible friction between Malian forces and new Russian elements will likely accompany the shift from Wagner to Africa Corps. The reorganisation period could temporarily weaken coordinated responses to insurgent threats, providing jihadist groups an opportunity to gain ground or mount additional attacks.
Long-term (>1 year)
Through Africa Corps and bilateral military arrangements, Russia will likely strive to cement its role as a key security and political actor in the Sahel Region. This could include expanded arms sales, military training programs, and intelligence-sharing initiatives.
Unless there are substantial improvements in governance, security sector reform, and socioeconomic development, Mali is likely to remain vulnerable to insurgency and internal conflict. Foreign military assistance alone, whether from Russia or any other actor, will be insufficient to address the root causes of instability, such as ethnic tensions, poor governance, and disenfranchisement.
