Putin's Gamble: The Evolution of Russia's Africa Corp
Alex Blackburn | 11 March 2024
Summary
Wagner mercenary forces in Africa, formerly led by Prigozhin, now operate as the 'Africa Corp' under Russian military command, aligning with Russia's geopolitical goals.
The transition allows Russia to negotiate African resource markets directly but removes plausible deniability, making the state responsible for the Corp's actions.
Russia's strategy includes supporting authoritarian regimes, exploiting Soviet nostalgia, and targeting resource control, as seen in efforts to control Niger's uranium mines.
Accelerated by the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner mercenary forces remaining on the African continent have been fully incorporated under the direction of Russian central military command. Rebranded as the ‘Africa Corps’, a name harkening back to Nazi attempts to conquer North Africa, the African branch of the Wagner Group, including military units, experts, and political strategists, initiated the shift to Africa Corps under the leadership of Russia’s deputy defence minister, Col. Gen. Yunus-bek Yevkurov. Legacy staff from Wagner are given a choice to either quit or continue their work for a government agency. After the decapitation of Wagner's leadership, Putin’s Russia has desired a more direct approach in exerting influence over predominantly unstable and developing African states, absorbing contractual responsibilities to the wider Russian military, a clear shift from the proven method of using private military company (PMC) proxies to exert influence and obtain lucrative resource licences. Essentially, this rebranding extends beyond nomenclature; it encompasses a shift from a more shadowy private initiative to an entity firmly under government jurisdiction, aligning with Russia's broader geopolitical objectives in Africa.
Although this transition of authority does provide the Russian state a more direct avenue to negotiate the acquisition of resource markets, and to circumnavigate increased Western sanctions, it does leave the Russian state directly responsible for the actions and inactions of the Africa Corps as an expeditionary force. Previously under the guise of the Wagner PMC, the Russian government held a level of plausible deniability for the actions of the mercenary force, despite the PMC being a clear branch of the Russian oligarchical elite. Already internationally isolated due to their war of aggression in Ukraine, there is a question of whether the Africa Corps will change its approach towards protecting civilian populations and use of terror tactics to limit an insurgency’s capacity to commit violence, despite their tactical success under the Wagner banner. This is unlikely, however, considering Russia’s desperation for concrete international allies, it seems possible that Russia will take the risk of maintaining the heavy-handed approach of Wagner to prop up similarly authoritarian regimes in Africa. This is a clear example of Putin’s pragmatism and belief in realpolitik.
A notable element of Soviet nostalgia persists in some African states, viewing Russia as an anti-imperialist alternative with historical parallels to the Soviet Union's stance during the Cold War. This sentiment is further fuelled by Russia's support for regimes that challenge the influence of former colonial powers, notably France. Reports reveal a systematic effort by Russia to replicate Wagner’s success in Mali by gaining de facto control of Niger's uranium mines, a move that could expose Europe to Russian "energy blackmail”, given France's heavy reliance on nuclear power and uranium imports. As Russia forges ahead with its expeditionary force, navigating the balance between securing resource markets and potential international backlash, the world watches closely to see if Putin's pragmatic approach will yield success or exacerbate Russia's isolation on the global stage.
Wagner Orchestra/Telegram
Forecast
Short-term
It is highly likely there will be little change in the operational output of the former Wagner PMC mercenaries in Africa, especially considering foreign minister Lavrov’s 2023 message to ‘friends and partners’ on the African continent which guaranteed a continuation of Wagner PMC contracts for their clients. With an already damaged international reputation, Russia intends on maintaining strategic alliances with like-minded states rather than placate to the Western powers, this means maintaining the tried and tested methods of the Wagner PMC.
Long-term
International backlash for the actions of the Africa Corp is likely, any significant infringement of the rules of warfare could lead to further international isolation on the global theatre, however, these reactions by the West are likely to be muted in contrast to Western objections to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
Russian interests in Africa could potentially cause a rift between its allies in China as both states are courting African states for priority over resources. Although this rift between the two powers is less likely to occur due to the wider geopolitical parameters of their partnership, the ‘historical pull’ held by Russia is rapidly fading so much so that some experts suggest that without proper investment, Russia risks not being taken seriously in contrast to their Chinese counterparts.
