2024 South Korean Legislative Elections
Ranson Lo | 8 April 2024
Summary
All 300 seats of the Gukhoe (South Korean parliament) will be elected on 10th April by the 44 million registered voters.
Current polls indicate no clear frontrunner, with the People Power Party (PPP) 's popularity trailing behind the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) by a few percentage points.
If the PPP wins the election, President Yoon Suk-yeol will have a stronger mandate until the end of his term in 2027, as Yoon is ruling with a minority government in the parliament with 42 seats less than the opposition DPK.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: USD 1.78 trillion (2023)
GDP per capita: USD 34,650 (2023)
HDI: 0.925 (2021)
Official currency: Korean Won
Demography
Population: 51.51 million (2023)
Ethnic composition (2019)
95.1% Korean
Religion (2019)
51% no religion
20% Protestants, 17% Buddhists and 11% Catholics
Electoral System
300 seats in the unicameral Gukhoe (National Assembly) for four-year terms.
253 out of the 300 are constituency seats elected by first-past-the-post system; the remaining 47 seats are allocated by the proportional representation system based on parties’ total votes on the condition, provided they have at least 3% of the total votes.
Authorised to amend and enact the Constitution and laws. The President has no power to dissolve the assembly.
Major Political Parties & Candidates
Democratic Party of Korea (DPK, 더불어민주당)
The opposition and the largest party in the parliament with 156 seats.
Founded in 1955 and transformed into DPK from a merger between multiple parties, including the Democratic Party (민주당), the Open Democratic Party (열린민주당), and New Wave (새로운물결).
Centre-left - supports stronger government intervention in the market, expands welfare policy and advocates for a Green New Deal for net zero by 2050.
Led by Lee Jae-myung since 2022, the former Governor of Gyeonggi Province between 2018 and 2021.
Lee Jae-myung lost the presidential election in 2022 to PPP’s Yoon Suk-yeol by 0.73% of votes.
People Power Party (PPP, 국민의힘)
President Yoon Suk-yeol’s governing party with 114 seats.
Founded in 2020 and led by Han Dong-hoon, the former Minister of Justice between 2022 and 2023.
Right-wing - advocates for fiscal conservatism and conservative ideas, including nationalism and conservative stance on gender-based issues, including the rejection of LGBT rights, while taking a stronger pro-Western foreign policy than DPK.
Green Justice Party (GJP, 녹색정의당)
Opposition party with 6 seats in the parliament.
Founded in 2012 and led by lawyer Kim Jun-woo as interim leader.
Centre-left - advocates for the creation of a welfare state by expanding social welfare and takes a progressive stance on gender-based issues.
The legislative election is widely perceived as a mid-term review of Yoon’s 2022 elected government. Yoon edged out DPK’s candidate, Lee Jae-myung, by a marginal 0.73% of votes. Yoon’s policy-making capabilities have remained limited since he was elected, as DPK currently controls the parliament with 180 out of 300 seats. However, as indicated by opinion polls, PPP is currently polling at approximately 36%, trailing behind DPK’s 45% for constituency votes, meaning that it remains unlikely for Yoon to get out of the gridlock for a smoother second half of the term despite the recent surge in popularity over the proposed healthcare reform, to address the ongoing problem of lack of medical professionals.
Concerning the overstretched healthcare system, it is highly likely that it will worsen in the coming decades as South Korea is experiencing one of the world’s worst demographic crises, with a birth rate of 0.72 children per woman, falling far below the replacement rate of 2.1. The low birth rate illustrates that the country is suffering from the problem of an ageing population epidemic, which is expected to only deteriorate further. This is because South Korea has one of the world’s highest life expectancies, at, on average, 83.3 years old. The demographic crisis could be detrimental to the country’s development long-term due to a smaller workforce lowering productivity, which increases social welfare system pressures, and subsequently increases pressure on the government’s financial resources in the long-term due to a smaller workforce and lowered productivity, which increases the pressure on the social welfare system, and subsequently on the government’s financial resources. Alongside its economic impacts, the ageing population will also likely weaken the country’s defensive capabilities against North Korea in the long term, as Seoul will have a smaller pool of population to recruit and conscript for national defence.
Given the ongoing demographic crisis and its subsequent ripple effects on society and the economy, Yoon’s government, although a staunch advocate of conservative values, is likely to open up to more relaxing immigration and citizenship schemes and reach a consensus with the liberal DPK apart from deadlocks in policy proposals in other departments. The prospect of more relaxed immigration rules could provide a band-aid for South Korea’s ageing population in the short run by topping up the labour force. However, the newfound cultural diversity might incite stronger resistance, especially in a highly culturally homogenous country such as South Korea, potentially sowing seeds for the emergence of more radically conservative and revisionist parties in the long run. Regardless of whether the PPP could secure a majority in the upcoming election, the ongoing problem of an ageing population remains a delicate yet urgent issue for Yoon’s government to address, with or without help from the opposition and society.
Dmthoth CC BY-SA 3.0
Forecast
Short-term
The status quo remains with the opposition DPK likely remains in control of the parliament, continuing to pose a resistance to Yoon’s government policy-making efforts.
Despite the ongoing cost of living crisis, the PPP has a small chance of winning more seats, as Yoon’s proposed healthcare reform is highly popular among the population.
Long-term
Yoon’s flagship pro-US foreign policy will highly likely continue throughout his term until 2027, with hawkish stances toward China and North Korea remaining.