Unconventional Warfare in the Middle East - Explosive Communications Devices and Evolution of Modern Warfare Tactics
Thomas Graham | 24 September 2024
Summary
A simultaneous detonation of communication devices used by Hezbollah militants in mid-September 2024 has resulted in almost 3500 wounded across Lebanon, marking a moment of increasingly volatile tensions.
While no parties have claimed responsibility for the sophisticated attacks, the most likely actor is Israel, following an escalation of tensions with the Iran-backed proxy in Lebanon.
The most probable method employed in the operation was the use of small remote explosive devices implanted in pagers and walkie-talkies at some point in the supply chain.
The Evolution of Hybrid Warfare
Drones, cyberattacks, and more recently combustive communication devices have assumed centre stage in 2024’s global news cycles. Marked by their low human and material cost, high effectiveness, and difficulty in retaliation, methods of hybrid combat have traditionally been employed in asymmetric warfare by actors whose relative power is dwarfed by their adversaries. Considering the conditions in which contemporary wars have been waged, it is unsurprising that these methods have become fully integrated into the wider strategies of modern combat. As the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War and 2023 Israel-Hamas Conflict have demonstrated, ‘boots on the ground’ methods of conventional warfare have become subject to substantive international scrutiny in the 21st century, drawing sanctions, extensive criticism from the high toll on civilians, and arrest warrants from the International Court of Justice against war leaders. A logical approach to circumvent these issues can be found in high-precision operations, shrouded in anonymity and conducted hundreds of miles away from the target, where plausible deniability becomes an instrument of war.
Hezbollah’s Combustible Communication Devices
Unconventional warfare tactics were employed with deadly efficiency against Hezbollah operatives across Lebanon on 17 September 2024. Around 3:30 p.m., over an hour, thousands of pager devices utilised by the militant group were detonated in what is being regarded as a high-precision coordinated operation. At least 12 fatalities were reported by the Lebanese Health Ministry, two civilians amongst them, with at least 2,800 people wounded in the attack. Notably, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was also injured, highlighting the proxy links between Iran and Hezbollah. The schematics for the pager model AR-924 can be traced to Taiwanese manufacturer Golden Apollo, who has since claimed that Hungarian-based company BAC Consulting KFT assembled the particular batch supplied to Lebanon in Budapest. It is likely that the 5,000 pagers were covertly intercepted somewhere along the supply chain before their delivery to Beirut and implanted with small remote explosive devices. However, some experts claim that another possible explanation for the detonations resulted from a cyberattack intended to overheat the equipment’s lithium batteries.
Similarly, 18 September 2024 saw a second wave of explosive walkie-talkie devices kill 20 and injure another 450 Hezbollah-affiliated militants, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. These were purchased five months ago, around the same time as the pagers. Although the IC-V82 model points to Japanese manufacturer ICOM, the company has since reported that their production ceased ten years ago, raising the possibility that these were off-brand copies. The complexity of retrofitting thousands of devices with undetectable explosives also invokes questions surrounding the products’ origins - were the miniature explosives built into the communication devices? In this line, it is conceivable that Hezbollah’s providers were covert agents posing as equipment manufacturers who managed to convince the militants to purchase the booby-trapped equipment, which ultimately led to the aforementioned events. In any case, Hezbollah’s claim that the incident is its ‘biggest security breach’ yet emphasises the importance of safeguarding supply chains in procuring military equipment, a lesson that has left international observers scrambling to secure their own manufacturing networks.
While no parties have yet claimed responsibility for the attack, the most likely actor behind the sophisticated attack is Israel. On 17 September 2024, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu introduced a new war goal to the Israel-Hamas Conflict, seeking to return displaced Israeli citizens from the northern region, which had been evacuated since artillery-fire exchanges with Hezbollah militants in South Lebanon began. This same day saw the Israeli Security Service, Shin Bet, thwart an assassination plot against one of its security officials through the use of a remote-activated claymore explosive, a method regularly employed by Hezbollah. The pager and walkie-talkie incidents mark the raising of tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border. This situation is anticipated to deteriorate as Houthi and Hezbollah militias have vowed retaliation whilst PM Netanyahu seeks to securitise the region. While unconventional warfare has highlighted the efficacy of hybrid methods in incapacitating soldiers and communications with minimal civilian casualties, an all-out conventional war between the parties is an increasingly likely scenario. The days following the incidents have seen major airstrikes by Israel in Lebanon, with Israeli claims that top Hezbollah officials have been eliminated and the Lebanese Health Ministry reporting another 500 deaths as a result. At Hezbollah’s moment of chaos, Israel may see an opportunity to strike at its long-standing adversary and secure Lebanon’s side of the border.
Microsoft Designer (AI-Generated)
Forecast
Short-term
It is highly likely that Hezbollah and its Iran-backed allies will retaliate against Israel through methods of unconventional warfare, such as concealed explosives, suicide drones, and cyberattacks. At the same time, the attacks on Hezbollah signal a realistic possibility of an Israeli invasion aimed at expelling Hezbollah from the southern region of Lebanon, in order to accomplish its new war goal.
Medium-term
International actors will certainly learn from the incident and redouble efforts to secure global manufacturing chains, especially relating to the provision of military equipment.
Long-term
The combustible communication devices incident marks a further step in the deterioration of relations between Israel and Iran, in which an increasingly likely full-blown war would have catastrophic reverberations for the stability of the Middle East.
