China's Strategic Tightrope in Myanmar: Balancing Economic Interests, Rebels, and an Unstable Regime
Alex Blackburn | 23 September 2024
Summary
Following Myanmar’s 2021 coup, China has shifted to navigating a suspicious military regime, affecting its economic projects.
By covertly backing ethnic rebels, China pressures the junta and combats organised crime groups, prioritising stability over ideological concerns.
This dual strategy may fragment Myanmar’s politics, invite more regional involvement, and risk instability that threatens China’s security and economic interests.
Longstanding economic and strategic interests have shaped the context of China’s engagement with Myanmar. The country provides a crucial link in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, offering access to the Bay of Bengal and reducing China’s reliance on the congested Malacca Strait for energy imports and trade routes. Before the coup, China had cultivated a strong relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government, which supported several large-scale infrastructure projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. However, the February 2021 coup threw these plans into disarray. The military junta, historically suspicious of China due to its past support of ethnic armed groups and its involvement in Myanmar’s internal conflicts, returned to power under General Min Aung Hlaing. This deep-rooted mistrust of China, combined with the chaos and instability following the coup, has made it difficult for Beijing to resume its pre-coup level of engagement. Despite the investments made during the Suu Kyi administration, Beijing found itself dealing with a regime less cooperative and more erratic than its predecessor. While Chinese officials initially referred to the coup as a “cabinet reshuffle” and urged dialogue between the military and Aung San Suu Kyi, the prolonged instability and lack of progress in Myanmar forced Beijing to recalibrate its approach.
The implications of China’s interference in Myanmar’s civil war are profound. By covertly supporting ethnic armed groups such as the Kokang forces and other rebel factions in the northeastern borderlands, China is exerting pressure on the military regime without directly intervening in the conflict. This strategy reflects Beijing’s long-standing approach to Myanmar, which prioritises border stability and economic access over ideological or political alignment. The northeastern region, which borders China’s Yunnan province, has long been a flashpoint of ethnic conflict, and Beijing’s support for rebel groups provides it with leverage in these contested areas. In late 2023, a Chinese-backed rebel offensive dealt a significant blow to the Myanmar military, demonstrating the extent of Beijing’s influence and its willingness to undermine the junta when its interests are threatened.
This support for rebels is not without reason. The Myanmar military’s failure to control transnational crime syndicates operating along the China-Myanmar border, particularly scam centres targeting Chinese citizens, has increasingly irked Beijing. By aligning with ethnic armed groups, China can ensure greater security for its citizens and its border regions while also keeping the junta in check. Beijing’s strategy of playing both sides - engaging with the military while quietly supporting ethnic rebels - allows it to maintain flexibility in its dealings with Myanmar and ensures that it is not overly reliant on an unpredictable military regime.
The future implications of China’s involvement in Myanmar’s civil war are significant and wide-ranging. While Beijing’s interference has so far been measured, its increasing influence over Myanmar’s internal dynamics positions China as a key power broker in the conflict. As the civil war continues, China’s role will likely grow. One potential result of China’s involvement is the further fragmentation of Myanmar’s political landscape. By backing ethnic armed groups in border areas, China may inadvertently fuel the disintegration of central authority in Myanmar, leading to a protracted conflict and further weakening of the military regime’s control. This scenario could create a power vacuum that Beijing might exploit to expand its influence, but it also risks long-term instability that could spill over into neighbouring countries.
Additionally, China’s dual approach of engaging with the junta while supporting ethnic rebels may open the door for other regional and global powers to increase their involvement in Myanmar. India, for instance, is likely to seek opportunities to counterbalance China’s influence, potentially by strengthening their ties with Myanmar’s military or by engaging with ethnic groups themselves. The United States and the European Union, meanwhile, may find common ground with China on issues such as transnational crime and humanitarian aid, despite their differing views on the legitimacy of the military regime.
However, China’s actions also carry risks. By supporting ethnic armed groups, Beijing is gambling that it can control the pace and direction of the conflict. If the situation in Myanmar spirals further into chaos, China could find itself entangled in a civil war that threatens its border security and economic investments. Moreover, its ambivalence toward the military regime may alienate the junta, driving Myanmar closer to other regional players or encouraging the regime to double down on its authoritarian grip, further destabilising the country. In the long run, China’s ability to manage its complex relationship with Myanmar will depend on its capacity to balance its economic interests with its security concerns, all while navigating a volatile and unpredictable conflict.
MPATV/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-Term:
China will deepen its engagement with both the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups, aiming to protect its economic interests and stabilise the border. Covert support for rebels will pressure the junta, but relations between Beijing and the regime will remain tense due to mistrust.
Long-Term:
China’s support for ethnic armed groups may further fragment Myanmar’s political landscape, weakening central authority and prolonging conflict. While this could expand China’s influence, it risks destabilising the region and disrupting key projects like the Belt and Road Initiative. Strained relations with the junta may push Myanmar toward other allies complicating China’s position. Escalating conflict could entangle China in a situation that threatens its long-term interests.
