Ukraine–Russia Direct Talks Resume: What to Expect Next
Andrea Stauder | 26 May 2025
Summary
After more than 3 years, Russia and Ukraine resumed direct talks in Istanbul, leading to the largest prisoners-of-war (POW) exchange of the conflict and a tentative commitment to further dialogue.
Despite public gestures toward peace, the talks exposed deep strategic divides: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to pursue regime change in Kyiv, territorial consolidation, and Ukraine’s neutral status, while Kyiv demands full sovereignty and Western guarantees.
Russia is likely to continue military pressure while delaying meaningful progress in peace talks, with United States President Donald Trump likely to withdraw from mediation if neither side shows readiness to compromise—a scenario that does not serve Putin’s interests.
On 16 May 2025, direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine was restored after more than 3 years. Though the talks lasted less than 2 hours and produced no ceasefire agreement, dismissing the meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations as a 'non-event' would overlook its significance. Both sides agreed to the largest POW exchange of the conflict (1,000 each) in a face-to-face talk for the first time since March 2022, they also agreed in principle to meet again. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could meet once negotiators manage to reach "certain agreements".
The delegations that met at Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace in Türkiye were not formed as initially hoped. The Russian delegation, led by Vladimir Medinsky, Assistant to the President, was criticised by Zelenskyy for consisting of individuals of too low a rank. Moreover, after days of speculation about a possible summit between Putin and Zelenskyy, the Kremlin's announcement that Putin would not travel to Türkiye was followed by Zelenskyy’s decision not to take part in the negotiations.
Putin never stated he would attend nor intended to accept his Ukrainian counterpart’s offer for a one-on-one meeting in Istanbul. He does not regard Zelenskyy as an equal, nor recognise his mandate, which technically expired in 2024 but was extended under martial law. However, Trump’s calls for engagement prevented Putin from explicitly rejecting the proposal outright. Putin’s primary goal is to convince Trump that Russia is genuinely interested in peace, hence the decision to send a delegation to Istanbul. But Moscow largely follows the same protocols it did in the Soviet era, with all high-level talks meticulously prepared in advance. As a result, spontaneous negotiations on Ukraine’s terms are out of the question.
A second problem is that Putin has not abandoned his demands for the war, still seeking to consolidate Russia’s territorial gains, regime change in Kyiv, and demilitarise Ukraine. These goals are inconceivable to Kyiv, Washington, and the West, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer describing Russia’s position in the talks as “unacceptable”. Meanwhile, as Russia slowly but steadily advances in Donetsk, already controlling almost one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, Putin remains convinced that if diplomacy fails, he can achieve his objectives on the ground.
Russia claims to seek peace, but Putin insists on direct talks to address the "root causes of the conflict"—while also being unable to return to his public without a real or symbolic victory. Kyiv is highly unlikely to recognise its sovereign territory as part of Russia, though it may accept temporary loss. It also demands Western security guarantees to prevent future invasions. Zelensky even urged harsher sanctions should Russia reject a 30-day ceasefire. Anticipating this scenario, the European Union (EU) has already adopted its seventeenth package of sanctions. Nevertheless, the Kremlin appears undeterred, convinced of the resilience of the Russian economy and confident in an eventual military victory. Finally, the peace process is going exactly how Russia wants it to. Slowly, and with the Kremlin as its scheduler. The only wildcard is Trump’s patience—eager to end the war, but unwilling to feel like he’s playing Putin’s game.
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
After the 19 May call between Trump and Putin, during which possible solutions were reportedly discussed, there is the realistic possibility for the Russian and Ukrainian delegations to meet again or issue a joint ceasefire memorandum.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
Russia is likely to maintain battlefield pressure while prolonging negotiations without offering substantive concessions following perceived US reassurances.
It is unlikely that any substantial change in the Ukraine conflict will occur before a direct meeting between Putin and Trump.
Trump is likely to disengage from mediation efforts should both sides remain unwilling to compromise.
Long-term (>1 year)
There is the realistic possibility of a partial reopening of dialogue and selective US-Russia cooperation, with some easing of sanctions in less sensitive areas.
Europe is likely to remain more sceptical, especially in the Baltic and Eastern member states
