Mali’s Political Freeze and the Rise of the Sahel Junta Bloc
Aryana Ris-Luamháin | 23 May 2025
Summary
Mali's military junta ordered the dissolution of all political parties and associations, banning their activities in the public sphere.
Shutting down opposition elevates risks of social unrest and subsequent violent crackdowns, setting a precedent for further backsliding into military rule across West Africa.
Democratic transition to power in Mali is unlikely in the short to medium term unless regional bodies can effectively intervene.
Mali’s junta issued a presidential decree announced on May 13 suspending all political parties and associations. The decree forbids these groups from holding any meetings or engaging in public activities, effectively silencing the country’s organised political opposition.
The move marks a new low in Mali’s democratic backslide and has reverberated throughout West Africa. While the junta claims it is acting to preserve “social cohesion,” critics say it amounts to a dismantling of the country’s democratic institutions. The move has been widely condemned by opposition leaders, with former Prime Minister Moussa Mara describing the junta’s restrictions as dealing “a severe blow to the reconciliation efforts initiated last year".
The decree is issued amid escalating dissent and state repression. Numerous opposition party members and pro-democracy activists are said to have disappeared following a rally on May 3 and 4 demanding multi-party elections. The "social cohesion" rationale invoked appears, in practice, to be a pretext for solidifying military rule and sidelining the opposition indefinitely.
Mali’s military junta came to power in 2020 following a series of coup d’état led by Colonel Assimi Goita. The junta had vowed to return to civilian leadership through elections in 2021, however, such plans have been delayed since. These delays have significantly compromised relations between the government and civil society. Transitional government ministers proposed extending Goita’s presidency until 2030, signalling a clear intent to extend military rule.
The implications of the decree extend beyond Mali’s borders. Aligning with other Western African military juntas established in recent years, resulting in the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States in 2023, the region has grown increasingly hostile to Western diplomatic influence and drifted away from regional institutions such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Meanwhile, Mali has strengthened its ties with Russia and openly supports Moscow, marking a significant geopolitical realignment in the Sahel.
Mali’s actions establish a dangerous precedent. It increases the risk that other transitional governments in the region may follow suit, further delaying or cancelling promised elections and suppressing political opposition. ECOWAS has previously imposed sanctions on Mali, but its ability to influence the junta appears diminished, undermining regional stability, economic integration, and crisis response mechanisms. A new age of one-party or military dictatorship for much of West Africa may therefore be emerging.
AMISOM Public Information/Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Democratic transition is highly unlikely. The junta appears emboldened and may indeed pursue a constitutional referendum to legitimise its rule.
Civil society and opposition party unrest are likely to escalate, especially among disenchanted young Malians weary of authoritarianism and a disintegrating economy.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The wider region stands in danger of further democratic regression. A key factor in reversing this trend will be the ability of regional bodies such as ECOWAS and the African Union to regain legitimacy and effectively negotiate credible transition timelines with the military governments.
