The Evolving Dynamics of China-Africa Relations
Aryana Ris-Luamháin | 7 February 2025
Summary
Evolving China-Africa relations are mutually beneficial but are associated with risks including unequal trade terms, growing financial vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s Annual New Year Tour presents an opportunity to review their relationship, especially in the wake of the 2024 Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
China-Africa cooperation is likely to intensify in the short-term at the cost of Africa’s relations with the West amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
China-Africa relations underpin Chinese foreign policy through securing strategic resources and expanding global leadership. Moreover, they solidify China’s position as Africa’s largest trading partner. This cooperation benefits Africa through substantial investment while China can use the continent’s significant voting bloc to balance Western dominance in governance, trade and security.
In January 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Namibia, the Republic of the Congo, Chad and Nigeria as part of China’s 35th Annual New Year Tour to deepen cooperation between China and Africa and pledge the allocation of Panda bonds to fund infrastructure projects. This followed the 2024 Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which serves as the primary platform for advancing their relationship and facilitating strategic planning between China and African nations. A number of arrangements for the 2025-2027 Beijing Action Plan were made at the Forum. President Xi Jinping again promised to support initiatives across Africa financially, announcing USD 51 billion in funding and moving away from large-scale infrastructure projects towards an approach that will implement 1000 smaller projects over the coming years. This includes targeted investments in specific sectors such as transport, clean energy and agricultural development.
The promotion of smaller projects, such as the “Luban Workshop”, which focuses on vocational education, in Africa may heighten existing financial vulnerabilities felt by countries that suffer from gaps in infrastructure and would benefit more from larger-scale projects. Moreover, the success of smaller-scale projects will depend heavily on local supply chain efficiency - any disruptions will significantly affect the implementation of projects. Political unrest in Mozambique in 2024, for example, significantly affected Estwani’s sugar exports.
Africa has long been at the core of competition between different global superpowers. China’s continuing desire to establish itself as a counterpart to Western powers means that African countries that engage with it could be drawn into existing US-China tensions, inducing increased political risks by threatening the maintenance of constructive relationships with both sides.
Stephen Walli/Wikimedia, CC BY 2.0
Forecast
Short-term
China-Africa cooperation is very likely to intensify, with the rollout of the Beijing Action Plan creating jobs and improving the economies of key areas.
Medium-term
Smaller-scale projects will likely increase the participation of local workforces, leading to greater skill-building opportunities. This could pave the way for more sustained economic benefits as local expertise grows in sectors such as construction and technology.
Long-term
China’s role in Africa and their increasingly close relationship will likely prompt the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) to play a greater role on the continent. The West will likely go beyond providing governance criticisms and security partnerships.
If implemented effectively, the AfCFTA is likely to enhance intra-African trade and significantly reduce reliance on external actors. This will likely facilitate African countries to negotiate better terms with China and other global partners.