From Lasers to Mini-Missiles: Emerging Counter-Drone Technology
Janhavi Pathak | 5 February 2025
Summary
The absence of a one-for-all solution against drone threats has pushed countries to adopt a layered counter-drone systems (CDS) approach with robust integration of AI to increase hit probability, optimise cost efficiencies and reduce human errors on the battlefield. The demand for autonomous execution in CDS has consolidated newer partnerships globally between the tech and defence sectors.
Emerging CDS aim to reduce operational cost, balance out skewed cost-to-hit ratios and optimise efficiency for tactical units. Innovations in these systems are driven by evolving demands on active battlefields and emerging geopolitical risks across theatres. This has reduced the overall operational lifespan of existing systems, propelling a constant weapon iteration cycle for recalibration.
Cross-theatre and cross-asset deployment of CDS is on the horizon, with emerging technologies appearing in Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, the North-South Korean border and the Indo-Pacific. Countries are investing heavily in procuring CDS and developing indigenous models to equip their militaries against drones. A greater share of the defence budget is now allocated to modernise and recalibrate air defence systems.
Problems with Traditional Air Defence (AD) Systems Vis-a-Vis Drones
The low-flying, small and fast attack drones have successfully circumvented radar and sensor-based detection and tracking of conventional AD systems, using multimillion-dollar interceptor missiles for neutralisation. The cost-to-hit ratio remains largely skewed with AD systems projecting expensive interceptors to counter $1500-$5000 drones, raising concerns on affordability, efficiency and scalability in protracted, multi-front conflicts. Alternatively, AD and Electronic Warfare (EW) systems can get overwhelmed by multi-pronged, combination attacks involving drones and missiles.
Emerging EW sensors, radars and frequency jammers have proven effective against close-range drone combat by cutting off or jamming the signal between the drone pilot and the machine before a strike. Militaries have deployed them across asset classes to recalibrate with the adversary’s target selection. These systems are relatively expensive, have a limited operational range and are vulnerable to signal spoofing, GPS-denial and technical failures.
With AI integration, advanced GPS denial systems and machine vision achieving autonomous mission execution demands for more efficient, affordable, mobile and user-friendly solutions against drones that can be calibrated quickly have emerged.
From Lasers to Shotguns: Kinetic & Non-Kinetic Solutions
Emerging CDS are geared towards addressing the problems of cost-efficiency, scalability and effectiveness. Solutions have been broadly divided into kinetic & non-kinetic technologies depending upon their usage of force in neutralising and mitigating drone-threats.
Countries like Estonia and Ukraine are testing affordable mini counter-drone missiles designed to target and neutralise low-flying drones with AI tracking and detection. While significantly reducing the cost-to-hit ratio, the mini counter-drone missiles have limited range, mobility and payload capacity. It depends on detection systems for launch while struggling against swarm and coordinated drone attacks.
Other countries like the United Kingdom, the United States and South Korea are experimenting with high-energy laser weapons using infrared ray beams and electro-optical systems for precision targeting and detection of adversary drones. Battle-tested in Ukraine, anti-drone lasers are mobile, user-friendly and cheap with the UK’s DragonFire pricing at￡10 per shot, according to the Wall Street Journal. Although rising military assets now mount anti-drone lasers to bolster close-combat capabilities, laser systems suffer from climate vulnerabilities, technical failures and limited operational range.
As the final line of defence, countries are investing heavily in anti-drone gears comprising anti-drone shotguns, mesh-net launchers, lasers, portable sensors and radars using acoustic or frequency detection. Anti-drone guns use specialised ammunition that can be self-made while being user-friendly and cost-effective against commercial quadcopters. Actors with limited resources fielding cheap plastic-made drones on tactical fronts are specifically vulnerable to this innovation. However, concerns about limited range, human errors and operational failure persist.
While individual CDS innovation seems promising, a multi-layered defensive approach has been the most effective against evolving drone-threats. With the integration of AI, efforts are underway to upgrade weapon software and standardise hardware for improved performance, quicker adaptations and better interoperability while controlling operational expenses.
Broader Implications
Mass deployment of improved and autonomous CDS will enhance precision-targeting and coordinated strikes against drone swarms and combination attacks on tactical fronts. AI will boost accuracy, operational efficiency and scope of protection across contested zones, bolstering asset and troop survivability in active conflict areas. A better defensive posture will allow militaries to take assertive offensive positions. The broad rollout of advanced CDS can further engender deterrence among nations.
Securing state-of-the-art CDS has forged robust tech-defence partnerships to upgrade existing weapon systems with AI, creating bigger investment calls and strategic resource allocation needs. As innovation remains central to countering drone-threats, governments may continue tapping into the creativity of emerging industry players and traditional primes, diversifying procurement portfolios for better deals. With CDS becoming imperative to modern AD, immunity against supply chain disruptions may eventuate stricter export controls and indigenous expansion efforts among counties.
US Navy/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term
Emerging counter-drone technology will likely experience a robust integration of AI to offset human errors, leverage cost efficiencies and harness better precision and accuracy in mission execution. C-drone systems will likely be engineered to become affordable, efficient and user-friendly while being deployed extensively across asset classes. Deeper partnerships between the tech and defence sectors may emerge with a greater allocation of funds towards weapon innovation & development. The weapon iteration cycle timeline will likely be reduced with a higher emphasis on modularity and interoperability to match the rapidly evolving market demands, spurring wider competition between industry primes and emerging companies for a market share.
Medium to Long-term
C-drone systems will likely adopt a layered defensive approach. Enhanced integration of AI in drone systems will likely reignite international calls for a unified regulatory stance on autonomous weapon systems. Large-scale partnerships among countries and defence companies will likely emerge to modernise militaries globally as non-state actors incorporate emerging technologies into their arsenal. A new battlefield ecosystem of AI vs AI drones with limited human oversight may rise as machines govern on the battlefield.