Terrorism in Pakistan: A Test for Pakistan’s Relationship with China?
Sen Chanu | 10 February 2025
Summary
The recent vice-foreign ministerial-level meetings between Pakistan and China called to push for a renewed commitment towards a high-quality development of the CPEC 2.0 projects.
The terrorist groups that target Chinese interest in Pakistan—however different their ideologies are—share a common goal, eradicating China’s presence by sabotaging the CPEC projects.
In the wake of increased terrorist attacks, China is prompted to take a dual approach towards Pakistan. While pressuring Pakistan to increase its security measures, China also expressed its interest in supporting Pakistan’s anti-terrorism efforts.
On 10 January 2025, diplomatic consultation and the meeting of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Joint Working Group were held at the vice-foreign ministerial level. The meetings highlighted key elements of the Sino-Pakistan strategic relationship such as enhanced coordination of development and security, the launch of CPEC 2.0-related projects, and the security of Chinese workers in Pakistan.
Overall, these agenda items come under the umbrella of China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Pakistan. The BRI’s flagship project, CPEC, was initially set to be completed in three phases until 2030. However, the first phase projects, expected to be completed by 2020, were severely delayed; and the second phase (CPEC 2.0) was only announced during a 14-day high-level workshop by China’s National Development and Reform Commission on 18 December 2024. One of the main reasons for the delay was the presence of terrorist groups in proximity to where the CPEC projects are located. Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have repeatedly targeted Chinese workers, with Pakistan’s National Counter Terrorism Authority recording 14 terrorist attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan since 2021. The Baloch-based insurgent groups demand a separate Baloch nation, while the TTP seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government and implement Islamic law. This resulted in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government refusing to fund some CPEC projects.
Minister Ahsan Iqbal stated during the 14-day high-level workshop that the 17 energy projects completed under CPEC have added 8,904 MW to the national power grid. These energy projects aim to alleviate Pakistan’s chronic energy shortages that cost the country’s GDP growth. Additionally, the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are established to strengthen the country’s economic growth by reducing its excessive reliance on imports. Pakistan is targeting to achieve this growth by developing export-oriented industries under the CPEC projects. According to a publication by the Centre of Excellence for CPEC, the projects are designed to alleviate poverty through increased job opportunities; integrate deprived districts with unified national markets especially, Balochistan and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; and increase productivity and purchasing power of lower and low-middle income groups through the construction of highways and railways. On the other hand, the Baloch insurgent groups believe that the projects under CPEC are exploitative against the residents of Balochistan. In an interview with a commander of BLF, he asserted that China is facilitating Pakistan to grab more lands in Balochistan through the implementation of CPEC projects, especially the projects in Balochistan’s Gwadar region. Similarly, TTP’s goal is to establish a caliphate system in Pakistan, so China’s presence is seen as a foreign threat.
While the target of Chinese interest by the terrorist groups has raised serious concerns about the CPEC’s future, it has also strengthened China and Pakistan’s security coordination in combating terrorism. Following the October 2024 bomb attack by the BLA that killed two Chinese engineers at Port Qasim Power Plant, the Chinese embassy called for a safe working environment for the Chinese personnel and Pakistan to improve counterterrorism efforts. China has also stated its commitment to supporting Pakistan’s anti-terrorism strategy through capacity-building. A joint counter-terrorism exercise, Warrior-VIII, the first of its kind since 2019, was conducted in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan, one of the provinces where TTP primarily operates.
It is important to note that China’s firm resolve was both verbal and tangible towards Pakistan despite the persisting terror threats against the CPEC projects. China has invested an approximate amount of USD 25 billion up until 2024 under the CPEC projects. Given the amount of investment made so far, it is highly unlikely that the Chinese government would afford to neglect the remaining projects and alienate Pakistan’s terrorism issues. The condemnations that came from the Chinese officials against the terrorist attacks are always accompanied by an assurance to protect the China-Pakistan relationship against such adversaries. China will likely continue with its attempt to allow for a smooth implementation of the CPEC projects and Pakistan will resume undertaking strategic measures to appease its Chinese investors.
Javedpk05/Wikimedia, CC BY 4.0
Forecast
Short-term
The ongoing counterterrorism operations in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, will likely thwart some pre-planned attacks on Chinese workers since the terror groups will be occupied, for a while, to retaliate against the Pakistani security forces.
Long-term
It is highly likely that terrorism will persist in the future and continue to pose challenges to the CPEC projects. In this case, based on the developing incidents, defence partnership and cooperation between China and Pakistan to combat terrorism will likely increase.