Russian Drone Incursions in Poland and Romania
By Milica Starinac and Alexandra Bostenaru | 18 September 2025
Summary
Russian drones violated Polish airspace on 9 and 10 September, in the largest breach since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022. Poland invoked NATO’s Article 4 (consultations with allies regarding a security concern of a member state), while Romania reported a similar incursion several days later.
The drone incursions were seen as a test of NATO’s air defence and highlighted the need for symmetrical responses to this threat, while Russia and Belarus denied that the incursions were intentional.
NATO will likely boost air defences and explore various anti-drone systems, while also being pushed to delineate the justifiable grounds for invoking Article 5 – collective defence in case of an armed attack on a member state.
Context and Implications
At least 19 Russian drones violated Polish airspace on 9 and 10 September 2025, in the largest-scale breach since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Four drones were reported to be shut down, the first instance of a NATO member state engaging in shooting since the start of the war. Commercial flights were temporarily suspended, while NATO scrambled fighter jets to respond to the drone threat. The aircraft deployed were Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS, NATO Multi-Role Tanker Transport, and German Patriots. Russia downplayed the incident and stated that there is no intention to carry out attacks against targets in Poland, claiming that the drones had strayed from Belarus and Ukraine due to signal jamming. However, Poland regarded the incursion as an attempt to test NATO defence capabilities and invoked Article 4 of the Washington treaty, prompting emergency consultations among Alliance members. Several days later, on 13 September, Romanian authorities reported a Russian drone had entered their territory near the southern Ukrainian border, making this a second breach of a NATO member's airspace in the same week. The European Union's Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Chief, Kaja Kallas, denounced the act as "another unacceptable breach of an EU Member State's sovereignty". As NATO ramped up air defence in the East, Russian drone incursions caused concern about potential spillover effects of the war in Ukraine amid stalled peace negotiations led by the US.
The incident, which Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk described as the “closest to open conflict since World War II” resulted in no casualties, but did result in property damage when one of the drones crashed into the roof of a house in the eastern Polish village of Wyryki-Wola. Three drones found in the Lublin region were identified as Gerbera drones, low-cost decoy drones modelled after Iranian Shaded drones, often used for overwhelm air defence systems. According to reports from German media, the drones penetrated the Polish territory by 250km and were headed towards the Rzeszow Airport — a key NATO logistical hub for Ukraine. The fact that drones were found to be unarmed did not diminish the severity of this incursion in the eyes of NATO, which announced the Eastern Sentry mission to strengthen air defence on the Eastern flank. Czechia, Denmark, France and Germany are among allies expected to provide additional aircraft to the mission. The response from the other side of the Atlantic has been rather cautious, with the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, describing the incursion as unacceptable, but questioning whether they were intentionally directed into NATO airspace.
The drone incursion in Romania had a significantly lower gravity, but its timing raised concerns among NATO allies. The Romanian Ministry of National Defence stated that the situation was monitored by its radar systems and two F-16 fighter jets, which detected the Geran drone at 18:23 (EET), that “orbited for about 50 minutes”, and tracked it to approximately 20 km southwest of Chilia Veche in Tulcea county, where it disappeared from radar. The pilots considered the possible “collateral risks and made the decision not to shoot down the target”. At the same time, the German allies deployed at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base joined the Romanian aircraft, monitoring the area until 21:30 (EET). Even though the drone did not reach populated areas nor pose an imminent danger, the authorities issued RO-Alert warning messages for the northern area of Tulcea. In light of the recent events that have undermined security policy at the EU borders, MEP Victor Negrescu, along with other Romanian MEPs, addressed a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, supporting Romania's intention to host the future European Maritime Security Hub for the Black Sea in Constanta — an initiative that President Nicusor Dan firmly supports —, given the strategic role of the country and the Black Sea for the EU. Considering the incursion in Poland several days earlier, Russia's attempt to test NATO's Eastern flank is highly likely to amplify regional tensions, leading both Poland and Latvia to restrict their airspace. In addition, disinformation campaigns used hybrid warfare tactics to sow distrust among the Polish and Romanian people. Simultaneously, Russia and Belarus conducted a military exercise Zapad-2025, joined by India for the first time. The exercise took place in Belarus from 12 to 16 September and caused further unrest among Eastern NATO member states, who strengthened border security or even temporarily closed borders amid the exercise. However, Zapad-2025 was of significantly lower scale than the previous Union State’s military exercise – Zapad-2021, with approximately 13,000 troops participating compared to 200,000 in 2021.
Regarding military implications, the Russian drone incursion into Poland and Romania will highly likely prompt NATO allies to further strengthen air defence on the Eastern flank, including but not limited to deploying fighter jets. Relying on high-level air defence systems and mobilising multibillion-dollar aircraft to counter Russian low-cost drones highlights a gap in NATO capabilities to counter low-intensity threats proportionally. NATO is likely to prioritise deployment of cheaper and more portable anti-drone equipment, ranging from MANPADs to jammers. Politically, these incidents raise further concerns about Russian grand strategy and potential escalation and spillover of the Ukraine war. This comes particularly after peace negotiations led by US President Donald Trump seemingly failed to provide a pathway to cessation of hostilities, urging the Western leaders — including Trump himself — to consider strengthening sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting the oil industry (recent 50% tariffs on India being an example). States bordering Ukraine and Russia are likely to push for increased defence spending and a tougher NATO stance, possibly facing resistance among more cautious Western allies (such as Germany or France) amid escalation fears. Russia is likely to continue low-intensity provocations under the guise of plausible deniability, probing NATO unity and pushing the allies to clearly draw a line of what constitutes justifiable grounds for invoking Article 5.
Mohammadreza Jabbari/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Countries on the Eastern flank are likely to impose further airspace restrictions, while NATO reinforces air policing and surveillance under the Eastern Sentry mission.
Russia and Belarus are highly likely to continue with hybrid warfare and low-intensity provocations of similar scale, while denying responsibility.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
NATO will possibly prioritise procurement and deployment of anti-drone systems, organise joint exercises focused on drone threats and further develop response procedures which do not rely on fighter jets.
Long-term (>1 year)
The Eastern flank NATO countries are likely to push for tougher sanctions on Russia and Belarus, as well as increased security protections. Meanwhile, the US and Western European allies may insist on clarifying the necessary conditions for invoking Article 5, fearing they could be drawn into the war.
