Israel Strikes Hamas Leadership in Doha
By Tom Hayward | 18 September 2025
Summary
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike targeting senior Hamas leaders in Qatar’s capital, Doha.
Hamas claims that its leadership survived the attack, but 6 others, including bodyguards and family members, were killed, as well as at least one Qatari security official.
The operation risks diminishing the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza and fracturing the Abraham Accords, as the UAE considers withdrawal over Israel’s actions.
Context
On 9 September, the IDF launched an airstrike on Qatar’s capital, Doha, targeting a compound believed to house senior leaders of Hamas. The strikes killed 6 people, including at least one Qatari security official, though Hamas denied that any of its leadership were among the casualties. Qatar deplored the attack as a violation of its sovereignty under international law, while the strikes were also unanimously condemned by the UN Security Council.
While the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office described the strike as a “wholly independent Israeli operation," the attacks have prompted Qatari leadership to question the United States’ (US) reliability as a security partner. Qatar is designated by the US as a major non-NATO ally and has spent billions in recent years on American defence equipment, including a USD 42 billion defence package signed this year. The deal included the cutting-edge THAAD ballistic Air Defense Missile System. The Gulf state is also home to Al Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in the Middle East, which serves as the forward headquarters for US Central Command and hosts approximately 10,000 US troops.
Israel’s attacks come just months after Qatar was targeted by Iran in its missile attacks on al-Udeid. These incidents have led Doha to reassess the strategic value of its close partnership with the US. Such strikes could undermine the assumption that American partnership brings more protection than it does vulnerability. Despite President Trump’s promise to the Qatari Emir that “such a thing will never happen again,” it is not clear whether Washington will be able to fulfil this promise in light of its waning influence on Israeli decision-making.
Implication and Analysis
While Trump is reportedly “not happy” with Israel’s strikes in Qatar, Washington appears unwilling or unable to constrain Israel’s increasingly audacious overseas military activity. Israel is operating with growing impunity, with Qatar being the seventh country to be struck by Israeli offensive military operations in 2025. Consequently, Israel’s actions increasingly appear to be contrary to American foreign policy goals. The strikes on senior Hamas officials in Doha undercut Washington’s ongoing diplomatic efforts to establish a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Similarly, the IDF’s operations in southern Syria, purportedly to protect the minority Druze population, have undermined the legitimacy of the Syrian government at a time when the White House has tentatively reopened diplomatic channels with Damascus.
Dissatisfaction with American partnership may lead Arab partners to look elsewhere for security and trade agreements. In 2024, the Middle East was the top recipient of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments, demonstrating Beijing’s growing influence in the region. There may also be consequences for the US-brokered Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic normalisation between Israel and several Arab states. The UAE has warned that annexing the occupied West Bank would cross a "red line" and undermine the spirit of the Abraham Accords. Anger at Israel’s strikes in Qatar could provide further reason to reconsider relations with Israel.
The long-term implications for ceasefire negotiations are unclear. The White House suggested in a statement that the attacks in Doha "could serve as an opportunity for peace,” perhaps given that military pressure could force Hamas to accept US-brokered terms. However, the immediate prospects for peace are significantly diminished. While Qatar has indicated willingness to continue in its role as mediator, trust in negotiation processes has been eroded and will take time to re-establish. It is almost certain that Hamas negotiators will be less willing to partake in talks if they believe that Israel still seeks to assassinate them. Meanwhile, the IDF continues its ground assault of Gaza City to capture what Netanyahu has described as Hamas’s last important stronghold. To date, over 64,000 Palestinians have reportedly been killed in the IDF’s campaign in Gaza since 7 October.
Radoslaw Prekurat/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
It is almost certain that Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations will be effectively halted for the next 3 months following the strikes, given a total breakdown in trust among all involved parties.
Israel will almost certainly continue to intensify its operations in Gaza City as it seeks to put military pressure on Hamas.
At the upcoming Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), it is likely that members will seek to agree to joint retaliation against Israel for its strikes on Qatar. It is a realistic possibility that this could include considering withdrawal from the Abraham Accords.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
It is likely that Tel Aviv will continue to attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders abroad. Netanyahu has stated that getting rid of Hamas chiefs in Qatar would remove the main obstacle to ending the war in Gaza.
Long-term (>1 year)
It is likely that Qatar and other regional US allies will reassess their relationship with Washington in light of the strikes in Doha and the recent US strikes on Iran.
It is likely that Washington’s undermined regional credibility will drive regional partners to deepen their relationship with rivals, including China and Russia.
