2024 Portuguese Parliamentary Elections
Ranson Lo | 12 March 2024
Summary
All 230 seats of the Assembleia da República (Parliament) were elected in the elections in Portugal on 10th March, with the centre-right Democratic Alliance led by the Social Democratic Party emerging as the biggest party with 79 seats.
The election has resulted in a hung parliament, with the far-right Chega potentially becoming the kingmaker for forming the next governing coalition.
The early election was called after Prime Minister António Costa resigned in December 2023 after being investigated for links to corruption charges.
Chega’s emergence in the election is likely to further facilitate the rise of far-right political groups and movements across the European Union.
The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) led by the Luis Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) won the Portuguese parliamentary elections on 10th March with 79 out of all 230 seats of Assembleia da República (Assembly of the Republic, Parliament) elected. The snap election was called by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in December 2023 as PM António Costa resigned amid alleged involvement in a corruption case over government projects. Costa rejected the allegations and remained as the caretaker PM while standing down in this election.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: USD 289.52 billion (2023)
GDP per capita: USD 28,120 (2023)
HDI: 0.866 (2021)
Official currency: Euro
Demography
Population: 10.3 million (2023)
Ethnic composition (2022)
92.5% Portuguese
Religion (2022)
85% Christians & 14% no religion
Electoral System
230 seats in the unicameral Assembleia da República (Assembly of the Republic) for four-year terms.
Party-list proportional representation system with voters voting for the political party instead of candidates as individuals.
Authorised to dismiss government with the vote of no confidence, to amend the constitution and laws, and to control over government budget.
Major Political Parties
Partido Social Democrata (PSD, Social Democratic Party)
Won 79 seats in the election.
Major party of the Aliança Democrática (AD) formed with CDS-Partido Popular (CDS-PP) and Partido Popular Monárquico (PPM).
Centre-right, implemented austerity measures in the last government advocating for a liberal economy.
Led by Luis Montenegro, a 22-year MP.
In power four times, most recently between 2011-15.
Partido Socialista (PS, Socialist Party)
Won 77 seats in the election, previously the governing party before the election.
Centre-left with pro-European line and advocate for welfare economy by expanding social welfare policy.
Led by Pedro Nuno Santos, former Minister of Infrastructure and Housing in the Costa administration.
Fifth time in power since Portugal became democratic in 1976, Costa has been in power since 2015.
Chega (Enough)
Won 48 seats in the election, up from 12 in the 2022 election.
Far-right populist party with strong advocate of anti-immigration and increasing crackdown on crime while expanding social welfare policy.
Founded in 2019 as a splintered party of PSD.
Led by André Ventura, MP since 2018 (elected as a PSD member) and known for his speech denouncing the Roma community.
Chega, a far-right populist party that has been criticised for being “xenophobic” and “racist” by PSD and PS, has increased their seats from 12 to 48 from the last election with 18.1% of the votes. Chega’s emergence has indicated the population’s discontent towards the governance and platforms offered by the two parties, PSD and PS, which have dominated the Portuguese political system since the Carnation Revolution, which saw the country become a democracy in 1974. This phenomenon adheres with the rise of the far-right political parties across Europe, including the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany and the Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands, which fundamentally campaigns on anti-immigration and anti-EU integration amid stalling economic growth due to Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Ukrainian War.
Although PSD, the biggest party coming out from the current election, has kept the campaign promise of refusing to form a coalition government with Chega due to the conflicts in values and platforms, the far-right party is set to establish itself as a major player in Portugal after rising as the third largest party in the country. The refusal to cooperate with Chega may also be ineffective in the attempt to stall the growth of the far-right movement in Portugal, as the next administration, which is almost certainly to be led by the PSD, will still have to rely on Chega’s support to achieve a majority to govern or to pass any policy into laws through the parliament. PSD’s governance could be stalled by sidelining Chega, which is likely to result in stronger dissent from the population and build up more support for the populist party that has disrupted the decades-long system of two-party rule in Portugal.
On the other hand, the upcoming government also has to improve its anti-corruption efforts and measures, given that Costa’s PS government collapsed due to corruption allegations over the handling of government projects on renewable energy and infrastructure. Corruption has been perceived as a relatively rampant issue in Portugal compared to the rest of the EU, as the Iberian country scored 61 out of 100 on the Corruption Perceptions Index in 2023, which is below the EU average of 66. Apart from Costa’s administration scandal last year, Portugal’s loose National Anti-Corruption Mechanism (MENAC) proposed in 2022 and golden visa programmes have raised public concerns regarding systematic and institutional corruption by politicians and the military.
European People's Party
Forecast
Luis Montenegro and the PSD will likely have to come to an agreement with Chega in the coming weeks to ensure effective governance throughout the four-year term.
It is highly likely that Chega’s electoral performance will further facilitate the rise of far-right political parties across the European Union by building on the momentum of PVV’s electoral victory in the Netherlands in November 2023.
Portugal will likely tighten its immigration policy with Chega’s increased presence and influence, especially regarding refugees.
