North Korea Revamps Drone Program
Janhavi Pathak | 5 March 2025
Summary
North Korea (NK) is upscaling the production of various reconnaissance & attack drones for domestic and export markets with the help of Russian and Iranian expertise, knowledge and resources. The latest NK drones share structural similarities with Russian & Iranian models, focusing on interoperability and integration across diverse weapon systems for optimal performance.
NK’s drone strategy prioritises offensive capabilities and cross-domain functionality, aggravating regional security and triggering rearmament among neighbouring states. Serial production of suicide drones acting as guided missiles is essential to boost tactical capabilities and gain a combative edge.
NK’s drone industry will likely develop using a ‘test & refine’ strategy by exporting weapons to actors in lower-risk theatres for efficient feedback and prompt improvement. This will give NK drones battle-tested credibility, creating another revenue stream for the sanctioned economy. Supply chain hurdles and resource deficits remain major challenges in upscaling production.
NK kickstarted its drone programme as early as the 2010s by testing simple attack drones on mock South Korean targets and conducting cross-border reconnaissance flights. While earlier NK focused on acquiring Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) drones with limited attack models, it revamped its strategy in 2021 by unveiling “miniature attack drones” and amplifying efforts to build an indigenous tactical arsenal. By 2022, NK was conducting regular ISR missions in South Korea using drones, gathering critical intelligence on civilian and military assets. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between NK & Russia in 2024 jumpstarted further drone development by exchanging advanced technology, expertise and capacity-building resources. With NK drones in Ukraine - the hub of drone innovations - the prospect of growth & innovation is unprecedented.
Emerging Patterns: A Varied & Fatal Mix
NK is bridging the gap in its tactical capabilities by producing suicide drones, capable of executing swarm and coordination attacks at multiple ranges. NK seeks to widen its security coverage beyond the Korean Peninsula and conduct missions in international airspace similar to South Korea, Japan & the USA.
The mass production and diversified drone assembly line sharing hardware & software similarities with Russian and Iranian models signal NK’s ambition of partaking in the drone export market by shipping weapons in lower-risk theatres. NK is co-developing various small-to-medium drones with multipurpose and multidomain capabilities with Russia, integrating advanced technologies like enhanced sensing & imaging, autonomous navigation and modular payload capabilities. Reports have suggested that NK has attempted to mount small nuclear warheads as payloads on its tactical air & sea-based drone fleet.
Newer models are geared towards better interoperability and integration with Russian weapon systems and have been pilot-tested in Ukraine to rectify operational gaps through joint modification efforts. Similar drone exchanges are possibly underway between other allied entities like Iran and its proxies.
NK is adopting a trial-and-error method to develop its offensive drone capabilities. NK soldiers & experts in Ukraine have developed an efficient feedback loop to modernise & recalibrate their indigenous drone industry. Drones are being actively battle-tested to improve their accuracy and capabilities. With a boots-on-the-ground approach to learning different drone and counter-drone systems, and engaging in tactical innovations and countermeasure efforts, NK is rapidly advancing its drone production to meet emerging needs and counter challenges.
Implications: Regional Instability & Aggravated Arms Race
NK's growing drone industry and joint partnerships with allied nations risk aggravating the arms race, regional security and instability in East Asia. NK’s joint initiatives with Russia may prompt South Korea & Japan to adopt harder defence posturing by fostering closer ties with the USA for enhanced intelligence-sharing, combative preparedness and military development. Cross-border tensions can lead to South Korean opposition consolidating power after Yoon’s presidency, while Japan amplifies efforts to achieve proactive deterrence by reequipping its Self-Defense Force.
On the operational front, NK tactical drone capabilities will likely boost the chances of false-positives & false-negative incidents on the border, leading to frequent military escalations. In response, Japan and South Korea must improve their AD systems and recalibrate them to emerging innovations. Inducting suicide drones in the tactical arsenal improves NK’s ability to gather intelligence and execute precision strikes, creating constant tension and psychological fear for the South Korean forces. Conversely, multifunctional drones also provide the opportunity to enhance situational awareness and neutralise threats before any damage.
NK’s sea-based drones threaten maritime security and subsea assets protection in the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea. Any sabotage attempt and attack will have a regional economic impact by hiking insurance fees and shipping prices, raising costs for businesses relying on commercial maritime routes. In parallel, heightened tensions will result in inflated defence budgets with sectoral incentives to propel the indigenous drone industries and attract investments in South Korea and Japan.
A rise in defence expenditure and capacity building will create new job opportunities for people amid sluggish economic growth. Stricter cross-border monitoring will make defection harder, attracting brutal punishments. At a micro-level, tensions with NK can aggravate discrimination towards NK defectors in South Korea, despite the state’s recent efforts towards inclusion.
Freepik AI
Forecast
Short-term
NK will likely bolster its drone industry, adding advanced drones and emerging technology such as FPV and AI to its tactical arsenal. Russo-North Korean joint initiatives in drone development will likely augment with greater exchanges of technology, weapons and resources. NK will likely conduct tests demonstrating its drone capabilities, with a high likelihood of frequent cross-border incidents & maritime incursions with South Korea & Japan.
Long-term
North Korea will likely emerge as one of the top anti-West drone players, forming an axis with allied nations. This will create a new revenue stream for NK, whose drone industry will evoke stricter sanctions by the international community. Proxies in Africa and the Middle East will likely get their hands on NK drones, causing new levels of suffering and death in the region.
Japan & South Korea will continue investing heavily in their drone programmes and AD systems through joint partnerships to counter regional threats and sabotage attempts. The renewed arms race may escalate security risks and instability in East Asia.