Iran's Evolving Military: Complementing Asymmetric Doctrine with Conventional Capabilities
Thomas Graham | 6 March 2025
Summary
Iran’s military doctrine was shaped in the 1980s, favouring asymmetric methods of warfare such as supporting proxy militias in the region. The emergence of a low-cost, modernised native military industry has allowed the Islamic Republic to reinforce its conventional fighting forces and methods, supplementing its unconventional doctrine.
Tehran has identified the need for a more technologically-oriented and robust conventional army after setbacks to its unconventional power projection capabilities. These changes are aimed at accomplishing its two longstanding foreign policy objectives: to spread the Islamic revolution in the Middle East and erase the State of Israel.
Military advances have encompassed projectile, drone, cybernetic, navy, and land warfare, with the likely support of limited technology sharing from Russia and China. As regional powers seek to carve out their spheres of influence, strategic partnerships like these will continue to drive multipolarisation.
The Origins of Iran’s Military Doctrine
Iranian military doctrine was largely shaped in the 1980s, with a focus on proxy warfare, asymmetric warfare, and ballistic missiles. In the context of the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) and the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), Iran identified the potential to confront militarily superior foes and export the ideology of the Islamic Revolution through asymmetric warfare. These methods would prove a capable strategy to project influence in the Middle East through establishing various militant proxies, at a fraction of the cost of its rivals. As a result, Iran’s proxy groups have served to challenge regional rival Israel and deter the United States’ influence, earning Iran’s status as the largest regional military power despite only placing 25th in global military expenditure rankings. While effective in achieving Tehran’s revolutionary goals, this doctrine may find itself outmatched by a direct confrontation with Israel and the rapid technological evolution of warfare. Evidently, Iran has identified the need to evolve with it.
Challenges to Iranian Military Doctrine
Tehran’s asymmetric warfare stratagem has been aggressively challenged in recent times, as rivals have developed their own strategies to counteract it. Examples that illustrate this trend include:
Israeli missile defence systems effectiveness in disabling Iran’s ballistic missiles, with claims that more than 90% of them were shot down in the April and October 2024 attacks.
Israel’s ‘mowing the grass’ strategy, in which short military operations are conducted against Iran’s proxy militias in Gaza and Lebanon, have found success in preventing these groups from consolidating their capabilities.
US and British airstrikes against Houthi militants in Yemen have curtailed the group’s willingness to hijack cargo vessels in the Red Sea.
Israel’s ‘siege’ method of warfare has been employed in Gaza and Lebanon to prevent high army casualties from guerilla tactics in foreign territories.
The Evolution of Iranian Military Doctrine
Tehran has recently shifted focus to the manufacturing and development of low-cost, native military technology to increase its capabilities. Likely engaging in limited technology cooperation with Russia and China, a feature of an increasingly multipolarised world, Iran has made remarkable advancements in missile, drone, cybernetic, navy, and land warfare:
The new ‘Qadr-380’ cruise missile can hit targets at a range of 1000 km, utilising artificial intelligence to adjust routes and flight paths after launch.
A converted ‘C110-4’ cargo ship into a low-cost swarming drone carrier, in 2025, promises to expand Iran’s operational range at sea.
The ‘Shahed-136’ suicide drone, manufactured by Iran’s HESH state-owned corporation, can serve as a mass-produced guided munition.
Iranian-affiliated cyber actors have since 2023 conducted sophisticated cyber attack operations against Israeli and US targets.
The ‘Toofan’ Mine Resistant Ambush-Protected vehicle, a new procurement which began production in 2018, is entirely Iranian-designed and built.
With the introduction of modern conventional capabilities alongside its asymmetric doctrine, the Islamic Republic aims to enhance its ability to project power in the Middle East. By bolstering its unconventional forces with a conventional backbone, Tehran seeks to add more weight to its coercive influence, particularly in securing and advancing the interests of its proxy groups. This hybrid strategy is designed to align Iran’s military posture with its longstanding foreign policy goal of spreading influence through the Islamic revolution in the Middle East. Given its strategic outlook, Iran also likely foresees conflict with Israel as inevitable, and the modernisation of its conventional forces may be a deliberate step toward preparing for this eventuality. As its military takes shape for the purposes of fighting a conventional war, the risk of tit-for-tat escalation with Israel is significantly increased, by reducing the likelihood that Iran will back down from challenges to its regional interests.
Fars Media Corporation/Wikimedia, CC BY 4.0
Forecast
Short-term
Iran is likely to adopt a more defensive and retracted stance through the process of modernising its conventional capabilities, avoiding actions which could meaningfully spite Israel and the US. It remains to be seen if this approach will be taken toward the development of nuclear weapons, which pose a high likelihood of inciting Israeli aggression.
Medium-term
The supplementation of modernised conventional forces to Tehran’s asymmetric doctrine is very likely to continue through the technological cooperation with geopolitical partners, found in Russia and China. In addition, modernised equipment may be supplied to Iran’s proxy groups - reinforcing their fighting capabilities and augmenting their power in comparison to local governments.
Long-term
Anticipating a large conflict with Israel in the future, Iran will become increasingly emboldened as it modernises the conventional army. This will likely manifest through a more aggressive posture displayed by its proxy groups.