Chinese Military Drills Near Australia Disrupt Flights and Raise Security Concerns
Alex Blackburn | 5 March 2025
Summary
On 21 February 2025, Chinese naval vessels conducted suspected live-fire drills in international waters, prompting a direct warning to commercial flights and causing flight diversions.
The incident highlights China's growing military presence in the Pacific, prompting increased surveillance by Australia and its allies.
There is increased pressure on Australia’s allies to review their policies toward Pacific island nations and protect vital trade routes from Chinese domination.
On 21 February 2025, an Emirates flight from Sydney to Christchurch received a direct warning from the Chinese military to avoid a section of international airspace. The warning caused concern and prompted airlines such as Qantas and Air New Zealand to divert flights. It was linked to suspected live-fire military exercises conducted by Chinese naval vessels in international waters, roughly 340 nautical miles southeast of Sydney.
Although the Australian military observed the Chinese fleet deploying a floating target and manoeuvring into formations typical of a live-fire event, no actual firing was confirmed. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that the exercises were conducted legally, in line with international law and standard military practices. However, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles expressed concern that China had not given the expected 12 to 24 hours notice, causing concerns for airlines and air traffic controllers.
Beyond flight disruptions, this incident underscores China’s growing military presence in the Pacific and its broader strategic ambitions in the region. The Chinese naval task force - comprising the Jiangkai-class frigate Hengyang, the Renhai-class cruiser Zunyi, and the Fuchi-class replenishment vessel Weishanhu - had already been tracked in the Coral Sea within Australia’s exclusive economic zone. This increasing presence aligns with China’s long-term goal of expanding its influence across the Pacific, both militarily and diplomatically.
A notable example is China’s 2022 security pact with the Solomon Islands, which raised concerns in Washington, Canberra and Wellington regarding the potential for a Chinese military presence in the South Pacific. Although both the Solomon Islands and China have denied any intention to establish a permanent military base, the agreement allows for the deployment of Chinese security personnel at the request of the Solomon Islands government. Furthermore, China has signed an economic cooperation deal with the Cook Islands, which is constitutionally subordinate to New Zealand concerning foreign and defence policy. This agreement, while officially centred on economic cooperation and undersea mineral exploration, has further intensified speculation about Beijing’s broader strategic ambitions in the Pacific.
The exercise has sparked political debate within Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese maintained a neutral stance, stating that the drills followed international law and posed no direct threat to Australian or New Zealand assets. However, Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie criticised the government’s response as weak, accusing China of using "gunboat diplomacy" to test U.S. allies. The timing of this incident is also notable, as it follows a recent high-level meeting between Australian Air Marshal Robert Chipman and senior Chinese military leader General Xu Qiling in Beijing - the first such meeting since 2019. While China reportedly cancelled planned live-fire drills before the meeting to maintain diplomatic goodwill, no discussion of future exercises took place, leaving uncertainty about future events.
As China continues asserting its presence in the Pacific, Australia and its allies - especially New Zealand and the United States - are likely to ramp up military surveillance and cooperation. Defence Minister Marles confirmed that Australian ships and aircraft were closely monitoring the Chinese task force alongside New Zealand’s military.
This heightened awareness is expected to manifest through increased joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and strategic deployments in the region. The AUKUS partnership, which includes Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, aims to accelerate efforts to enhance Australia’s naval capabilities, including the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, although three of these submarines were ordered in December 2023, prior to these Chinese exercises. These submarines, projected to be operational in the 2030s, will enable Australia to conduct longer-range patrols and surveillance missions, countering China’s expanding maritime presence.
Furthermore, Australia and its allies may strengthen security partnerships with Pacific Island nations to counter China’s influence. The United States has already reopened its embassy in the Solomon Islands and is enhancing diplomatic and security engagement with Pacific nations through initiatives such as the Partners in the Blue Pacific.
Tiffini M. Jones, MC 1st Class/US Navy/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term
If the evidence proves that the Chinese naval exercise did not produce live fire, the geopolitical fallout will likely be minimal, as China is Australia's largest trade partner.
Long-term
Given the Australian military's inability to detect a Chinese fleet in the Tasmanian Sea, Australian defence leaders will likely enhance their military relationships with like-minded regional allies, notably Japan and the United States. Joint exercises between the states will most likely be scheduled for the near future, not only to increase military cooperation between the regional powers but also to deter any future Chinese transgressions towards Australia.