Meloni and Trump Meet for High-level Negotiations
Anna Toso | 12 May 2025
Summary
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and United States (US) President Donald Trump met in Washington on 17 April 2025 for a high-level diplomatic exchange.
Meloni reached economic agreements with Trump, underlined by their ideological similarities, showing converging interests and opportunities for cooperation between the two countries.
Trump will highly likely meet Meloni in Italy in the near future, and will also likely schedule talks with the European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen.
On 17 April 2025, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and US President Donald Trump held closed-door consultations on economic, security and technological cooperation in Washington, followed by a press conference with international journalists.
The Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs on countries with a trade deficit towards the US on 2 April, which was suspended with a 90-day pause for negotiations. Despite the Italian governing coalition’s unanimous decision against retaliatory tariffs, their approaches remain fragmented. The Infrastructure Minister and Lega’s leader, Matteo Salvini, favours direct bilateral Italy-US deals, risking Italy’s isolation from its European partners, diplomatically and economically. Meanwhile, the Foreign Minister and Forza Italia’s leader, Antonio Tajani, pushes for unity across the EU Member States (MSs), with Italy representing a bridge between Brussels and Washington. Accordingly, Meloni was in close contact with the European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen before her visit to the White House. Although the Commission retains the formal mandate to negotiate duties for the European single market, Trump promised Meloni that there will “100% be an EU tariff deal.” Currently, the EU has paused its retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, but American duties still stand at 25% on aluminium, steel, and derivatives, and 10% on all other European products, projected to rise to 20% in July unless a new agreement is reached.
The US are the third-largest importer of Italian goods after Germany and France, taking 10.4% of Italian exports in 2024 at EUR 64.8b (USD 73.9b). Meanwhile, the value of Italian imports from the US was EUR 25.9b (USD 29.3b), resulting in a trade deficit for the US with Italy. Since Italy has the third-highest trade surplus with the US among the MSs, the stakes for Italian export-driven manufacturing are significant and strategic. If American tariffs rose back to 20% in July, Italy's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could shrink by 0.4-0.6% over the next two years. The Italian Finance Ministry has already halved the official GDP growth estimates, updating the previous +1.2% with a new prospect of +0.6% by the end of 2025. Tariffs could also raise Italy’s unemployment rate, reverting its progressive reduction registered in the last few years until 2024, when it reached 6.5%, slightly above the EU average.
Despite the constrained public finances, Meloni pledged to increase Italian purchases of American LNG and defence spending. Specifically, she committed to raising the latter from the current 1.5% to NATO’s requirement of 2%, inching closer to Trump’s 5% proposal. The two leaders also agreed to bolster the transatlantic defence industry’s supply chain cooperatively. For instance, Italy will contribute to reviving the American shipbuilding industry. This commitment strengthens the long-term involvement of the Italian corporation Fincantieri in the American naval construction sector. Moreover, the US will invest in the Italian cloud computing and AI technology and support the Mattei Plan – Italy’s public investment scheme for infrastructural development in Africa. These commitments display bilateral intentions for long-term economic and diplomatic cooperation.
However, the military involvement in Ukraine was the major point of explicit divergence. Contrary to Trump’s administration, Meloni’s government holds a strong pro-Ukraine stance. Nonetheless, Italy opposes the ground troops deployment proposed by the UK-initiated coalition of the willing, complying with the established pacifist sentiments of the Italian public opinion and constiution. Pragmatically, the Italian Prime Minister endorses the EU and NATO positions because they are prerequisites to prevent Italy’s isolation from its neighbors and most important trade partners.
Meloni and Trump share a similar conservative, right-wing, anti-immigration, and nationalist political ideology, granting the Italian premier a privileged relationship with the US President, as they share a common ground of “western nationalism”. Unsurprisingly, Meloni was the only EU leader invited to Trump’s presidential inauguration. Meloni’s political stance has become a strategic asset that improves her international legitimisation and bipartisan appreciation thanks to her privileged position in the EU-US dialogue. This trend is also reflected in the ambition to enhance Rome’s relevance as a multilateral geopolitical crossroad. Italy also hosted US Vice-President JD Vance the day after Meloni’s trip to Washington. Being also the venue of the ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, Rome has the potential to increase its importance in high-level geopolitics at the European and international level. Overall, during the next 2 years of mandate, Meloni could represent the conjunction between the EU interests and the US approach under the Trump administration, crucially enabling an open window for dialogue between the two sides of the Atlantic, otherwise ideologically distant.
Governo italiano/Wikimedia, CC-BY SA 3.0
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
It is highly likely that Trump will make an official visit to Italy in the very near future, given his acceptance of Meloni’s invitation.
On that same occasion, the US President will likely schedule formal talks also with the EU representatives, as during Pope Francis’ funeral, Trump agreed to meet with Von der Leyen.
Alternatively, there is a realistic possibility that the NATO summit happening in The Hague on 24-25 June 2025 could enable further EU-US diplomatic dialogues.
The Italian government is unlikely to negotiate a parallel bilateral deal on tariffs with the US, circumventing the European Commission, since this operation would damage Italy’s reputation within the EU.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
Additional meetings will likely take place between Italian and American officials to operationalise the points negotiated by Meloni and the Italian Finance Minister, who visited the White House on 24 April.
Long-term (>1 year)
Throughout Trump and Meloni’s presidential mandates, the relationship between the US and Italy will likely remain positive thanks to their strong ideological affinity and aligned interests.
