India’s Climate Crisis
Divya Narvekar | 5 May 2025
Summary
India has faced climate and environmental challenges since the 1970s, which are exacerbated by its geographical diversity and high population density, despite accounting for only 7% of global emissions and 17% of the world’s population.
Climate change poses a significant threat to food security, affecting agriculture, fisheries, human health and livestock. Extreme levels of air and water pollution resulted in increased infant mortality rates, reduced life expectancy, and inadequate sanitation conditions.
India is expected to experience more frequent heatwaves, coastal flooding, and water crises in the coming years. The economic toll of climate change on India is substantial. Projections suggest potential GDP losses ranging from 6.4% to over 10% by 2100, with an estimated 50 million people at risk of falling back into poverty due to climate-related challenges.
Heatwaves
In May 2016, an all-time record high temperature of 51°C was recorded in Rajasthan, India. Subsequently, in May 2023, 10 Indian states faced a prolonged heat wave lasting 2–3 weeks.
A heatwave is a prolonged period of excessively high temperatures, often accompanied by dry conditions, which can have severe impacts on human health, agriculture, and infrastructure. In India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines a heatwave as:
Plains: When temperatures reach ≥40°C (104°F) or are 4.5–6.4°C above normal.
Coastal & Hilly Areas: When temperatures reach ≥37°C or exceed normal by at least 4.5°C.
India has experienced widespread deforestation, mainly driven by agricultural expansion and industrialisation. The loss of forest cover diminishes the natural cooling effect of trees, leading to rising temperatures and intensifying the severity of heatwaves. Heat-related deaths have surged, and energy demands for cooling have skyrocketed. As global temperatures rise, the most vulnerable populations around the world will continue to suffer the most, as climate change threatens livelihoods and displaces communities.
To combat heatwaves, India needs better climate adaptation strategies, increased public awareness, and improved urban planning. Strengthening early warning systems, enhancing green cover, and promoting sustainable infrastructure can help reduce the devastating impact of extreme heat.
Sea level rise (SLR)
Sea level rise is one of the most severe consequences of climate change, posing a significant threat to India’s coastal cities, ecosystems, and livelihoods. India has a 7500 km coastline and is home to millions of people, major economic hubs, and crucial infrastructure. As global temperatures rise, melting glaciers and polar ice caps contribute to increasing sea levels, which lead to coastal erosion, flooding, and salinity intrusion into freshwater sources.
With India close to the equator, the sub-continent would see much higher SLR, and storm surges would lead to saltwater intrusion in the coastal areas of Kolkata and Mumbai, both densely populated cities, particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding. Rapid construction along coastlines has destroyed natural barriers like mangroves, wetlands, and sand dunes. Some ways to mitigate the impact of SLR include building sea walls, improving early warning systems and promoting sustainable coastal behaviours. The restoration of natural barriers such as mangroves and wetlands should also be prioritised.
Heavy rains & flooding
India experiences intense rainfall and severe flooding due to monsoon patterns, cyclonic storms, and climate change. India is vulnerable to flood disasters, with an average annual loss from floods estimated to be approximately USD 7.4b. The Indian monsoon has become more severe, leading to both droughts and devastating floods.
Flooding disrupts lives, damages infrastructure, and causes significant economic losses. The frequency and intensity of floods have increased in recent years due to unplanned urbanisation, deforestation, and global warming. India’s long coastline (7,500 km) is vulnerable to cyclones from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Cities like Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad suffer from waterlogging due to unplanned urbanisation. Major rivers like the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Yamuna frequently overflow, causing floods in Assam, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.
In 2021, Cyclone Yaas left an estimated 150,000 homeless in eastern India after destroying at least 25,000 homes. India, being an agrarian economy, is majorly impacted by climate change. Crop yields for staples like wheat, rice, and pulses are declining due to shifting rainfall patterns and extreme weather. Farmers face growing financial distress, contributing to migration and rural economic instability.
Migration due to Climate Change:
The New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found that India experienced extreme weather events on 314 out of the 365 days in 2024, killing 2933 people and 92000 animals, destroying 8000 homes, and destroying 2m hectares of crops. The numbers could be even higher because the data was not complete, according to the organisation.
Extreme weather conditions often force people living in parts of India to migrate to already overcrowded cities. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) in India estimates that there are currently about 14 million people in total who have been forced out of their homes due to climate change. Approximately 80% of India's population resides in areas highly susceptible to natural disasters, including extreme heat waves and severe flooding.
In India, the expected rise in internally displaced populations (IDPs) due to climate-induced disasters is likely to exacerbate competition for essential resources like land, water, housing, and employment, particularly in urban and suburban centres. This flow could place severe stress on already overburdened infrastructure and public services. In areas with existing social, caste, or religious tensions, this increased pressure may fuel grievances, leading to localised social unrest or even triggering communal violence.
Dibakar Roy/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
It is likely that India will experience an increase in heatwaves, particularly in northern and central India, which could lead to higher mortality rates and water shortages.
Restoration of degraded landscapes and watersheds is likely under the government’s Green India Mission, contributing to ecosystem enhancement, improved livelihoods, and climate mitigation.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
Despite strong frameworks, India will likely continue to struggle with the implementation of climate policies.
Unstable weather conditions over the monsoon season will likely threaten food security in India by significantly reducing the yields of staple crops like rice, wheat, and pulses.
Long-term (>1 year)
India will likely to face severe and worsening climate challenges in the coming decades due to rising global temperatures, extreme weather patterns, and environmental degradation.
India's climate crisis is highly likely to have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond its borders, potentially affecting regional stability, global economic systems, migration trends, and international climate cooperation.
