Energy Security or Human Rights: Azerbaijan’s Role in EU Energy Politics
Elif Bas | 16 February 2024
Summary
The EU is diversifying its gas imports to decrease dependence on Russia.
Resource-rich Azerbaijan has gained importance for European energy security with annual estimates of 12 bcm in 2023.
President Aliyev raises concerns about democracy and human rights practices which could negatively impact the EU’s reputation.
Azerbaijan, an OPEC+ member, recently gained significance for EU gas supply following Russia's Ukraine invasion. As the EU is making efforts to diversify its gas supplies to break economic ties with Russia, Azerbaijan is expected to increase EU exports by up to 20 billion cubic metres in 2027. The EU also plans to invest in Azerbaijan's renewable energy sector, primarily solar and wind energy production.
Despite Azerbaijan’s strategic importance and resources, its democracy and human rights concerns raise questions. President Aliyev, who has been in power since 2003, abolished term limits in 2009, extended office terms in 2016 and secured his position in power until 2031 in the recent controversial elections. Aliyev is also facing criticism for the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh and accusations of ethnic cleansing against Armenians.
Energy deals with Azerbaijan could harm Brussels' international credibility. Azeri imports can reduce imports from Russia, but they will not solely grant the EU energy security or independence from an authoritarian supplier. There are plans to double the route’s capacity to approximately 32 bcm per year in the next four years through additional investment. However, for this to occur, Aliyev must comply with international law and address regional instability. Undemocratic actions that could damage relations with the EU must be avoided. Both parties should consider the long-term consequences and avoid undemocratic actions.
Diego Delso/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term: Investment into pipelines from Azerbaijan to the EU to facilitate an increase in imports.
Medium-term: Amidst Europe's shifting political landscape and upcoming elections, the EU should prioritise renewable energy over diversifying dependencies to mitigate risks associated with engaging with authoritarian regimes.
Long-term: The governance under Aliyev is expected to persist, potentially worsening with ongoing undemocratic practices.