Philippines’ Political Crisis: Falling Out of the Marcos-Duterte Alliance
Ranson Lo | 19 February 2024
Summary
The political alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (known as Bongbong) and former President Rodrigo Duterte (referred to as Rodrigo) has broken down, destabilising Filipino politics.
The fallout of the Bongbong-Duterte alliance will likely dissuade Marcos from pushing for constitutional reforms to increase presidential term limits.
Despite the potential escalation of the political crisis, the withdrawal of Duterte’s support for Bongbong’s proposal for constitutional reform provides a safeguard for the Philippines’ democratic institutions.
Bongbong and Duterte’s political alliance with Sara Duterte (Rodrigo’s daughter), running as Bongbong’s vice president, has contributed to his landslide victory in the 2022 elections. Widely perceived as pragmatic cooperation for both Bongbong and the Dutertes at the time, the alliance broke down entirely after Sara’s confidential funds were cut from the official budget.
Bongbong and Rodrigo have been at odds against each other on major policies since Bongbong was elected in 2022, with one of the most notable incidents including Bongbong’s reversal of Rodrigo’s foreign policy and becoming increasingly pro-US by granting Washington access to five extra military bases with the expansion of the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. Bongbong’s proposal to raise presidential term limits from a single six-year term has further exacerbated tensions, as it is perceived as detrimental to Sara’s prospect of succeeding Bongbong as the President once his term ends in 2028, which was the cornerstone of the Bongbong-Duterte alliance.
The breakdown of the alliance creates a new political crisis for the Philippines. Apart from the two rivals accusing each other of “drug addicts” amid the ongoing crackdown on drugs and criminal gangs, Rodrigo has openly called for the secession of Mindanao, the country’s second-largest island that constitutes around 23% of the Filipino population. The region was plagued by a history of insurgency that only ended in 2019 with the peace deal between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) with the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Although his calls for secession were widely rejected and criticised by Bongbong, BARMM authorities and MILF for attempting to destabilise and derail the 2019 peace deal that was signed by Rodrigo himself, his speech over the sovereignty of Mindanao poses a significant threat to the country’s political stability. Itis expected to persist and exacerbate other affairs as the feud between the two Presidents persists.
World Economic Forum/Greg Beadle
Forecast
Short-term
The breakdown of the Bongbong-Duterte alliance and the loss of legislative support will likely dissuade Marcos from pushing for reforms to increase Presidential term limits before the 2025 mayoral elections.
Political instability will likely persist from both within (Bongbong and Sara Duterte) and outside the government (Bongbong and Rodrigo Duterte).
Long-term
Marcos is highly likely to continue his pro-America foreign policy throughout his term amid rows and skirmishes with China in the South China Sea despite Duterte’s criticism.