Bundestag Elections: Far-Right Gains and a Conservative Comeback
Milica Starinac | 11 March 2025
Summary
Germany’s parliamentary elections saw the far-right AfD become the second-largest party in the Bundestag, while the CDU/CSU secured the most seats, positioning Friedrich Merz as the next Chancellor.
The elections marked a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape, with the governing SPD suffering its worst result in a century.
AfD’s rise highlights growing public concerns over immigration and security, pushing mainstream parties to address these issues to prevent further far-right gains. Despite AfD’s success, the longstanding “firewall” policy keeps them out of government, making a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition the most likely outcome.
In the short term, Germany will likely see a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government formed by April 2025, while AfD solidifies its role as the largest opposition party. Long term, Merz’s government is expected to tighten immigration rules, increase defence spending, and push for stronger European cooperation, particularly in nuclear energy.
Germany’s snap elections, which took place on 23 February 2025, resulted in the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party’s ascend from political margins to the second largest party in the Bundestag. The outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to quit frontline politics following the worst result the Social Democratic Party (SPD) recorded in a century with only 16.4% of the votes. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) won the most seats, and its conservative leader Friedrich Merz is set to become the next Chancellor. Merz will have to navigate a landscape of rising concerns about economy, immigration and social security — the issues which marked the electoral campaign. He also vowed to strengthen Germany’s defence in an effort to support Europe’s strategic independence from the United States (US).
A record 48.9 million voters, or 82.5% of the electorate, took to the polls and have shaken the country’s political landscape, which was dominated by the two largest parties - centre-left SPD and centre-right CDU/CSU. Despite faring worse than expected, the two parties are likely to form another grand coalition, with SPD as the junior partner. The liberal democrats (FDP), whose budget dispute led to a vote of no-confidence to the three-way coalition government in November 2024, failed to pass the 5% threshold for entering the German parliament. The Greens, the third coalition partner in the outgoing government, won 11.6% and placed fourth. Besides AfD, the other biggest winner was the Left (Die Linke), with almost 9% votes following a successful social network campaign in the weeks leading up to the election mobilising youth voters.
AfD, led by Alice Weidel and supported by some American government officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk, will likely be the largest opposition party with 152 seats as Merz rejected forming a coalition with AfD. This is due to a longstanding consensus in Germany known as the “firewall” (Brandmauer) designed to keep the far right out of the government following WWII. Three eastern German states designated AfD as right-wing extremist and one of the party’s leading figures, Björn Höcke, was convicted for using a banned Nazi slogan, “Alles für Deutschland”. The slogan bears a concerning resemblance to the one chanted by Weidel’s supporters during the campaign — “Alice für Deutschland.” However, AfD capitalised on concerns over internal security and immigration, particularly in light of the recent terrorist attacks, which further improved the support of their anti-immigration policy.
Although AfD is unlikely to become a part of the ruling coalition, their electoral success draws attention to the wider trend of the rise of far-right, which could continue if the government fails to address public concerns exploited by AfD. The topics that played the biggest role in voters’ decision were internal security, social security, immigration and economic growth — and the potential grand coalition of old-school centre parties will have to demonstrate results in these areas to prevent further strengthening of the far-right. So far, AfD has been successful in setting the agenda regarding their immigration policies, with Merz initiating a motion to strengthen immigration rules in January, for which he received backlash from the public, as well as the former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Forecast
Short-term
It is highly likely that the new government will be another grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD, with Friedrich Merz as a new chancellor. The preliminary talks between Germany’s biggest political parties already began, concessions are likely to occur due to their disagreements in tax policy and debt brakes.
The new government will likely be formed by the end of April 2025.
AfD is highly likely to become the largest opposition party in the Bundestag.
A CDU/CSU coalition with the Greens and the Left is highly unlikely, despite being another option to reach a 316-seat majority, as it would require major concessions from the conservatives.
Medium-term
Germany is likely to tighten immigration rules to respond to growing concerns which are behind AfD’s electoral success. This is in line with Merz’s stance on immigration and asylum rules as well, as demonstrated by his rhetoric and action in Bundestag.
Long-term
Germany led by Merz is likely to continue to increase defence spending and to initiate stronger European cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, to decrease reliance on external actors such as the US and Russia.