Quantum Computing Breakthroughs: Innovation, Security, and a Widening Geopolitical Divide
Abigail Darwish and Aryamehr Fattahi | 10 March 2025
Summary
China and the US have achieved new technological breakthroughs in quantum computing. China’s photonic chip operates at room temperature, enabling secure and energy-efficient quantum communication, while Microsoft's Majorana 1 chip introduces topological qubits for greater stability.
Quantum computing threatens current encryption methods, leading to concerns over “Q-day,” when quantum computers could decrypt sensitive data.
Few countries, including the US, China, and the UK, can produce quantum computers despite widespread investment. Restrictive exports hinder collaboration on technology, deepening global divides and geopolitical tensions over technological dominance and security.
Quantum computing is an emerging field that harnesses the principles of quantum mechanics to process information exponentially faster than traditional computers. Unlike classical systems that rely on binary bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers use qubits (the basic unit of information in quantum computing), which can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing for unprecedented computational power.
Recently, both China and the United States (US) independently reported technological breakthroughs in this field.
Researchers at China’s Peking University have demonstrated large-scale quantum entanglement on optical chips, a crucial step toward advancing quantum computing and secure communication technologies. Unlike conventional quantum computing methods that depend on superconducting materials and ultra-low temperatures, the Chinese chip utilises photonic technology to function at room temperature. This offers competitive advantages in practical applications, enhancing both accessibility and energy efficiency in quantum computing, whilst producing compact quantum networks capable of secure and efficient information transfer.
At the same time, Microsoft introduced its groundbreaking Majorana 1 chip, featuring the world’s first 'topological qubits’–based on a new state of matter that is not liquid, solid, gas or plasma–offering a revolutionary method for storing quantum information with greater stability and error resistance. This represents a critical step toward realising scalable quantum computers, capable of harnessing millions of qubits in unison to solve "meaningful, industrial-scale problems in years, not decades", such as pharmaceutical discovery and diagnostic decision-making. However, some researchers remain sceptical, arguing that despite the theoretical possibility of topological qubits, experimental validation is still in its early stages with significant hurdles over long-term feasibility remaining.
These divergent approaches—China’s photonic, room-temperature entanglement technique and the United States’ pursuit of error‐resistant topological qubits—demonstrate the breadth of quantum computing development. A key distinction lies in operating temperatures: China’s method functions require no complex cooling, while Microsoft’s relies on extreme cold for topological stability. Additionally, photonic systems use photons as qubits and rely on software-based error correction, whereas topological qubits leverage Majorana zero modes for built-in resilience.
As global investment in quantum research intensifies, breakthroughs from leaders like the US and China, alongside contributions from Canada, the UK, and Japan, will continue to drive rapid innovation, reshaping computing, encryption, and problem-solving across industries. At the same time, international engagement with quantum computing remains comparatively limited relative to that observed in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other emergent technologies.
Quantum Computing’s Security & Geopolitical Implications
Quantum computing also carries profound security and geopolitical implications. The competition for quantum supremacy advances toward the phenomenon known as “Q-day,” a scenario in which quantum computers render existing encryption methods obsolete. This massively amplifies the potential for cyberthreats as hackers could breach critical infrastructures with greater ease, including energy grids and nuclear reactors, by exploiting weakened encryption defences. This strategic vulnerability has prompted the use of “harvest now, decrypt later” tactics, wherein governments collect massive amounts of their adversaries’ encrypted data with the goal of deciphering it after quantum computing matures. The anticipation of Q-day has exacerbated US-China tensions, with both nations accusing each other of such tactics. For example, in September 2023, China’s Ministry of State Security accused the US National Security of “systematic” attacks to steal Chinese data.
Moreover, the international landscape is characterised by uneven progress. Despite more than 20 countries launching national quantum initiatives, only a select few—such as the US, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom—possess the capacity to produce quantum computers domestically. This disparity is further compounded by restrictive export policies imposed by nations including Canada, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom, limiting the global dissemination of quantum technologies. Whilst restrictive export policies currently limit global collaboration in quantum computing, precedent suggests that advancements in transformative fields often necessitate greater international cooperation. As nations strive to keep pace with AI and quantum advancements, it is likely that competitive pressures will eventually drive new frameworks for collaboration, balancing security concerns with the need for technological progress.
manueljota/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term
It is very likely that international competition, particularly between China and the US, will increase as both nations accelerate their investments to achieve quantum advantages.
It is likely that there will be continued scepticism surrounding claims of quantum supremacy, with peer verification becoming increasingly important.
Medium-term
It is highly likely that amidst growing concerns about data security, more governments and organisations will implement quantum-resistant encryption protocols.
It is likely there will be an increased focus on building quantum-ready workforces through targeted educational programmes and public-private partnerships.
It is likely that there will be more practical applications of quantum computing, such as in healthcare, finance, military and AI sectors.
Long-term
It is very likely that greater technological divides between nations with and without quantum technology will emerge, creating new geopolitical power dynamics.
It is likely that “Q-day” will become an emerging threat in the next few decades, should the current trajectory of quantum computing advancements continue.