2024 Uruguay General Elections
Tim Gros | 19 December 2024
Summary
After obtaining 52% of votes in the second round, Yamandú Orsi was elected the President of Uruguay.
His election follows a trend of shifting governments across the continent and the world, after left-wing Frente Amplio (FA) gained the upper hand over right-wing Partido Nacional (PN).
Despite efforts at improving social welfare and the economy, it is unlikely that Uruguay will take a drastically new trajectory under Orsi.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: 82.84 billion USD (2024)
GDP per capita: 23.050 USD (2024)
HDI: 0.830 (2022)
Official currency: Uruguayan Peso ($U)
Demography
Population: 3.385 million (2024)
Ethnic/Religious composition
European descent (93%), African descent (6%), Mestizo (1%)
Christian (68%), non-religious (30%)
Electoral System
The President is elected for five-year terms.
30 Senate members
Elected by proportional representation in a nationwide constituency.
Five-year terms
99 members of the Chamber of Representatives
Elected by proportional representation for each of the 19 departments.
At least two members per department
Five-year terms
Former history teacher Yamandú Orsi claimed victory in the recent Uruguayan elections, marking yet another shift in government across the globe, after the United States , United Kingdom and Japan, amongst others. The FA regained control after five years of PN reign, during which slow development, derived from the Covid-19 pandemic, ignited a wave of public disapproval. Unlike the FA’s last term in 2014, it will not have a parliamentary majority. The party fell two seats short at the Chamber of Representatives, despite a majority at the Senate. It is uncertain whether this will hinder efforts at implementing FA policies.
Main Parties and Candidates
Frente Ampolio (FA)
Winner of the elections: Yamandú Orsi (52% in the second round)
Main policies focus on improving social welfare, tackling poverty and curbing criminality rates.
Back in power after five years of Partido Nacional rule. FA had previously governed the country from 2005 to 2017 under Tabaré Vázquez and José Mujica.
48 seats acquired at the Chamber of Representatives, 16 at the Senate.
Partido Nacional (PN)
Main candidate: Álvaro Delgado (48% in the second round)
Seeks to uphold previous government goals of free trade deals, including with China, and address organised crime.
Led by the incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou.
29 seats acquired at the Chamber of Representatives, 9 at the Senate.
Partido Colorado (PC)
Main candidate: Andrés Ojeda (16.8% of votes in the first round
The PC has always been centre-right, which explains why Ojeda called for his supporters to back the PN in the second round of the elections.
17 seats acquired at the Chamber of Representatives, 5 at the Senate.
Historically, Uruguay has remained a stable liberal democracy, rarely turning to extremes since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985. Consequently, a shift in government will not directly translate to drastic policy changes. Although a member of a leftist party, Orsi is considered to be closer to the centre.
According to recent polls, the population named eradicating organised crime as the government’s main priority. Although Uruguay doesn’t harbour major criminal organisations, it has increasingly been used as a transit and destination source for illegal activities such as human and drug trafficking. The number of homicides per 100,000 has steadily increased since 2017, reaching 11.2 last year. Yamandú Orsi is expected to adopt a social approach, unlike the PN who advocated for police nighttime raids. The previous administration has centred its strategy around incarcerations of drug dealers and an enhancement of policy capabilities. By investing in social integration and education, Orsi hopes to tackle youth unemployment, which he sees as a key driver of crime recruitment. Should criminality continue to increase, this would strike a blow to Uruguay’s attractiveness as an investment opportunity.
Boosting economic development will also be high on Orsi’s agenda, given how the pandemic affected the outcome of his predecessor. On this front, it is probable that Orsi will implement policies aimed at attracting foreign investments. According to the Cefeidas Group, technology and innovation will be at the core of this strategy, with plans to open technology parks to attract investment in data science and Artificial Intelligence. It is also likely that Uruguay’s critical agricultural sector will be subject to various reforms to improve its output. Orsi has proposed cutting down red tape and operational costs to support small and medium-sized businesses.
Regionally, Orsi wishes to revitalise MERCOSUR, the South American trade union. He aims to position Uruguay as a bridge between the two regional powers that are Argentina and Brazil. Under Lacalle Pou, various trade agreements with China were threatening to undermine Mercosur. Orsi is likely to favour pro-mercosur initiatives. This is unlikely to dampen relations between China and the Latin American block as the former remains South America’s top trading partner.
Yamandú Orsi/ Flickr
Forecast
Short-term
Orsi will likely focus his early mandate on the improvement of social welfare. Tackling unemployment among the younger populations will not only boost the economy but also help address organised crime violence.
Long-term
Uruguay is unlikely to take on a drastically different trajectory under Orsi, as Uruguay has remained a stable democracy under both left and right ruling parties. Internationally, Orsi will likely enhance cooperation with regional partners to strengthen the reputation of Mercosur.