2024 Russian Presidential Elections
Ranson Lo | 13 March 2024
Summary
The Presidency of Russia will be elected from 15th to 17th March by the 114 million registered voters.
President Vladimir Putin is expected to win with little competition and clinch the Presidency in the 1st round due to his high domestic popularity and unfair election practices (i.e. barring legitimate opposition).
The levels of civil rights and freedoms in Russia are expected to recede further.
Russia is holding its 8th presidential election since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, President Vladimir Putin, who has been in power since 2000, is expected to win with a comfortable margin given that there is little competition due to high domestic popularity with regards to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and unfair electoral practices by barring opposition candidates. Putin is allowed to run for a third consecutive term after the restriction on term limits was lifted by himself with the amendment of Article 81 of the Constitution in 2020.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: USD 1.9 trillion (2023)
GDP per capita: USD 13,320 (2023)
HDI: 0.822 (2021)
Official currency: Russian Ruble
Demography
Population: 142.92 million (2023)
Ethnic composition (2022)
71.7% Russian, 3.2% Tatar, 1.1% Bashkr, 1.1% Chechen
11.3% other & 11.6% unreported
Religion (2022)
60% Russian Orthodox & 9% Islam
24% no religion
Electoral System
Registered voters will vote for the next President for a six-year term.
First-past-the-post system for presidential election, second round would be held if no candidates receive more than half of the votes.
Presidential candidates must be over 35, be a Russian resident for over 25 years, and not hold any foreign citizenship.
Major Candidates
Vladimir Putin
Incumbent President since 2012, also served as President from 2000 to 2008.
Leader of the United Russia (Единая Россия), the largest party in both the Federal Council (upper house) and State Duma (lower house).
Expected to win with little competition.
Vladislav Davankov
Deputy Chairman of the State Duma since 2021.
Head of the Central Executive Committee of New People (party) (Новые люди).
Polls show Davankov is the second most popular candidate due to his relatively liberal ideas of ending government censorship over the reporting of the Ukrainian War despite trailing behind Putin significantly.
Leonid Slutsky
Leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR, Либерально-демократическая партия России) since 2022 and MP since 1999.
Led the Russian negotiation team in 2022 following the siege of the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, advocated that Ukraine’s Azov regiment should be executed and not treated as prisoner-of-war (POW).
Accused of corruption, bribery and sexual harassment.
Nikolay Kharitonov
MP since 1993 and a member of the Russian Communist Party (CPRF, Коммунистическая Партия Российской Федерации).
Ran for the presidency against Putin in 2004 with 13.8% of the votes.
Advocate for Leninst ideas and values and opposes most of Putin’s domestic policies apart from the invasion of Ukraine.
Despite dissent over Putin’s autocratic measures, misgovernance of corruption and lack of transparency, the 71-year-old president remains firmly in power with strong domestic support for the war in Ukraine as 73% of respondents approved the aggression based on the polls held by the independent Levada Center. Given the high level of support alongside all four candidates supporting the war in Ukraine, apart from the fact that Putin has no real competition, the election will almost certainly have no major impact on the Ukrainian War as the aggression is almost certain to continue. Although the sanctions on the Russian state and economy by democratic countries have been unable to deter Moscow’s military aggression, these measures have been detrimental to Russia’s economy and weakened its capacity in the long run.
Although Putin is almost certain to remain in power with a landslide victory in the upcoming election with strong support from the population amid the Ukrainian War, the domestic situation remains tenuous as indicated by the death of the prominent opposition leader, Alexei Navalny last month, who was imprisoned for trumped up charges of embezzlement and extremism. His death sparked protests as thousands of his supporters paid tribute in Russia, implying that despite Putin’s high level of support, there remains a proportion of dissidents and objections to his government. This could haunt his rule in the coming months as there remains a chance of Moscow calling for a second round of mobilisation and conscription amid the mounting casualties in Ukraine, as the first wave of mobilisation in September 2022 has sparked nationwide protests and thousands fleeing the country.
The backslide of democracy in Russia has also significantly accelerated following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as the government has banned journalists other than the state-owned media from reporting on the war. Sites doing so are blocked and individuals arrested for doing so and threatened with a maximum of 15 years of imprisonment under the war censorship laws (Articles 31 and 151 of the penal code). Journalists, activists and civil groups that voice dissent are also labelled by the government as foreign agents or terrorist groups. Apart from the increased crackdown on dissidents in the name of national security and combating disinformation, the prominent opposition figures of Boris Nadezhdin and Yekaterina Duntsova are also barred from running in the election on the grounds of “irregularities” and “errors in paperwork” in their applications as presidential candidates, making the current election unfree nor fair. The backslide of electoral rights was also indicated by the constitutional amendment to overturn the restriction of Presidents running for more than two consecutive terms, which paved the way for Putin to contest in the upcoming election with an almost certain chance to stay in power as President for life.
Kremlin.ru
Forecast
Putin is almost certain to win the election due to his high approval rate and the lack of opposition figures running.
If Putin wins:
International sanctions on Russia are highly unlikely to be lifted as the Ukrainian War is expected to continue.
Given Putin’s domestic popularity and likely to win by a large margin, it is likely that Moscow will call for a second wave of mobilisation due to the significant casualties the Russian armed forces have suffered in their invasion of Ukraine.
The predominated foreign intervention policy, including the spread of disinformation and the use of mercenary forces (i.e. Africa Corp, formerly known as Wagner Group) is highly likely to remain in place to project Moscow’s influence, especially in Europe, the US and Africa.
