Will the United Kingdom Recognise a Palestinian State?
Alex Blackburn | 12 August 2025
Summary
With no significant progress towards a ceasefire in Gaza or any renewed Israeli commitment to a two-state solution, the UK is now expected to formally recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on 9 September. The UK government had stated that recognition would go ahead unless Israel met specific conditions: signalling concrete steps to end hostilities, permitting humanitarian access, and committing to a credible peace process.
The decision reflects both increasing domestic pressure within the Labour Party, the UK public and broader humanitarian concerns. Still, it is likely to strain UK-Israel relations and could test transatlantic ties, especially if the United States' (US) response becomes more hardline.
While unlikely to alter realities on the ground in the short term, the UK’s move may rekindle international support for a two-state solution and encourage other European countries to follow suit, positioning Britain as a more active diplomatic player in the region.
The UK is preparing to officially recognise a Palestinian state in September, marking a significant shift in its long-standing Middle East policy. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government has linked this move to on-the-ground conditions, most notably, an end to fighting in Gaza and a renewed commitment by Israel to a two-state solution. However, with little sign of progress on either front, recognition is now increasingly likely to proceed. The decision follows months of increasing concern in the UK over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. According to figures from the Gaza health ministry, over 60,000 people have died since the war began, with the World Food Programme describing hunger levels in the territory as the worst seen this century. Within the Labour government, calls to act intensified after reports of starvation among children and rising civilian casualties, with nearly half of Britons backing recognition, and many urging the government to adopt a firmer stance on Israel’s conduct during the war.
International pressures have also shaped Starmer’s position, especially from President Emmanuel Macron, who announced a few days earlier that France would recognise a Palestinian state, the first in the G7 to do so. While Starmer has said that recognition is not unconditional, it is clear that the threshold for delay is now very high.
Implications
The announcement represents a significant shift in the UK’s approach. However, the immediate effects are likely to be diplomatic rather than practical, with Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy stating that the goal is to signal support for a peaceful two-state solution and to encourage moderate voices on both sides. Yet, it also reflects the current instability affecting the Labour government. Over 200 Labour MPs have expressed support for recognising a Palestinian State, many of whom are increasingly frustrated with the government's initially cautious stance. This foreign policy U-turn could also be a response to the formation of a new ‘left-wing’ party by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana. The new party has already begun to attract disillusioned Labour members and activists critical of the government's handling of the Gaza crisis. By moving towards recognising Palestine, Starmer may be aiming to bolster support within his party and prevent further left-wing fragmentation. While presented as a moral and strategic choice, the announcement also highlights the political balancing act and the consistent U-turns on key policies that Starmer faces as he navigates pressures both domestically and internationally.
Globally, Israel has firmly rejected the move. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it as a “reward for Hamas” and claimed it would only incite further violence. Netanyahu has long opposed the idea of a Palestinian state, and his current government, reliant on support from far-right parties, has shown no willingness to engage with a two-state solution. Meanwhile, the US response has been varied. President Trump, after meeting with Starmer in Scotland, stated he had no objection, though other US officials, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, were more critical, considering the move a mistake. The UK government, however, has emphasised that its decision is based on timing and principles, not on choosing sides.
The decision also occurs amid ongoing domestic pressure. Large-scale protests have persisted across major UK cities since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, with demonstrators calling for an immediate ceasefire and stronger government condemnation of Israeli actions. These public displays of solidarity with Palestinians have helped shape the political atmosphere around recognition, increasing pressure on Labour to take a firmer stance.
While the UK’s decision to recognise a Palestinian state is unlikely to bring immediate change on the ground, it could have long-term diplomatic and political significance. The move positions the UK as a more proactive participant in Middle East diplomacy, signalling a readiness to move beyond previous caution and align more closely with international allies like France. By tying recognition to the broader goal of restoring a two-state solution, the UK aims to reaffirm that negotiated peace remains achievable, even as on-the-ground conditions suggest the opposite.
One goal is to create more political space for moderate Palestinian leaders, especially as Hamas’s influence has increased amid ongoing conflict. The UK government has clarified that recognition does not mean endorsement of Hamas but is an effort to support the longstanding international consensus on Palestinian sovereignty as part of a fair settlement. The move may also prompt other European nations to follow suit, further diplomatically isolating Israel if its government continues to reject a two-state framework. Recognition would also bring the UK into closer alignment with several Middle Eastern states that have consistently supported a two-state solution and could help enhance the UK’s diplomatic standing alongside both EU partners and key regional players.
Nevertheless, the decision could cause tension in the UK’s foreign relations with other Western powers. While President Trump’s response has been cautious, his administration’s overall stance remains uncertain, and more critical voices in Washington have already voiced concern. If the US becomes more solid in its position, it could complicate transatlantic cooperation on Middle East issues.
Domestically, recognising Palestine is likely to resonate with voters who have been critical of the government's previous caution on the Gaza conflict, particularly among younger and more progressive segments of the electorate. It may help the Labour leadership regain credibility on foreign policy issues where it has faced internal dissent. However, the move also carries political risks. It could reopen contentious debates about Labour’s past handling of antisemitism, something the party has been keen to put behind it after the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn. By going ahead, the government is accepting a degree of uncertainty, especially if the diplomatic fallout worsens or if the recognition fails to lead to significant progress towards a peaceful settlement.
Alisdare Hickson/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Given the lack of meaningful progress from either side towards establishing a durable ceasefire in Gaza, it is likely that the UK will proceed with formally recognising a Palestinian state at the UNGA on 9 September. The UK has clearly stated that its offer to delay recognition was conditional upon substantive action from Israel, including an end to hostilities and a renewed commitment to a two-state solution - conditions that remain unmet.
If formal recognition proceeds, Diplomatic ties may weaken, and cooperation in sectors such as defence, trade, and intelligence might face increased friction. Israel is likely to respond with strong political condemnation, a possible downgrade of diplomatic ties, and a reluctance to collaborate with the UK on regional security issues, possibly extending to economic or cultural boycotts.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
UK-Israel relations are likely to stay tense. Formal recognition could lead to a reassessment of diplomatic and economic ties, including a pause in ongoing trade talks. It might result in the UK being excluded from specific regional security discussions.
Long-term (>1 year)
Domestically, the Labour government will likely strengthen support among pro-Palestinian parts of the public and its own party, helping to lower the appeal of new left-wing political options. However, Starmer’s government will be closely examined over the real effects of recognition, particularly if conditions in Gaza worsen further or if no credible peace process emerges.
