Johannes Jansen | 17 July 2024

Summary

• The German Ministry of Defence announced a new selective military service model to address Bundeswehr personnel shortages and make the military more robust for large-scale land-based warfare.

• The Bundeswehr faces challenges due to old barracks, limited training capacities, and budget constraints, with the model's reliance on voluntariness receiving criticism for lacking comprehensive reforms. The reintroduction of mandatory military service faces political opposition, while the initiative signals a gradual remilitarisation and cultural shift in German society.

• Short-term logistical challenges and public debate; medium-term improvements in enlistment and training capacities, with strengthened NATO commitments; long-term achievement of 200,000 active soldiers and 200,000 reservists, enhancing strategic readiness and cultural acceptance of military service.

On the 12th of June 2024, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new selective military service model to address the Bundeswehr’s personnel shortages and respond to the geopolitical threat from Russia's aggression against Ukraine. This initiative follows the suspension of mandatory conscription in 2011, which transitioned the military into a smaller professional force. The shift from foreign missions to territorial defence has necessitated a re-evaluation of military recruitment and preparedness, with predictions that Russia could potentially attack a NATO state by 2029. The new model aims to make the Bundeswehr more scalable and responsive to such threats.

Inspired by Sweden’s military service, the model involves sending a questionnaire to all 18-year-old men and women to assess their willingness and ability to serve. Approximately 400,000 males fall into this category annually. Men must complete and return the questionnaire, while women can participate voluntarily, in line with the German constitution. Sanctions for non-compliance are still under consideration. Based on the responses, selected individuals will be invited for medical examinations and potential enlistment, focusing on those most motivated, fit, and suitable. Selected individuals can perform a basic military service of six months or commit for up to 23 months, maintaining the principle of voluntariness. Those serving longer will receive additional training and may receive bonuses for further educational pursuits. The plan also includes establishing a robust reservist system, with active troops and reservists regularly training together. The long-term goal is to increase the number of reservists to around 200,000.

The announcement has several implications. The Bundeswehr's old barracks and limited training capacities can currently only accommodate an additional 5,000 recruits annually, highlighting the need for a gradual buildup of infrastructure and training personnel to support this increase. Thousands of new recruits will also put further pressure on the already strained annual budget, exclusive of the € 100 billion special fund from 2022. Furthermore, the model heavily relies on voluntariness, a point of critique from the CDU party and the Bundeswehr Association, arguing that the plan lacks the comprehensive reforms needed to address the personnel gap effectively. The Bundeswehr currently has a shortfall of approximately 20,000 soldiers, and the need is projected to increase with older personnel retiring from active service and rising NATO demands. However, the re-introduction of mandatory military service for males faces stiff opposition from most major political parties and large parts of society, while forcing females to fill out the questionnaire would require a change to the German constitution. Finally, this announcement reflects a gradual remilitarisation of German society, though to a lesser extent compared to during the Cold War due to the nature of the selective military service. It is initiating a cultural shift among German youths, who will soon be confronted with the option of joining the military.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • The military service model will likely face logistical challenges and mixed public reactions as it begins implementation. Debates about increasing the annual military budget will highly likely intensify as the new model will be costly and take money away from modernising equipment. 

• Medium-term

  • Enlistment numbers and training capacity will likely improve, while legislative changes to address any gaps or issues identified during the initial implementation phase will likely occur. Germany’s commitment to NATO’s territorial defence will also be strengthened.

• Long-term

  • If implemented and functional, the Bundeswehr will achieve operational capacity with 200,000 active soldiers and 200,000 reservists, enhancing Germany's strategic readiness and fostering a gradual cultural shift towards accepting military service.