US-Central Asia Trade Agreements: Deepening Economic Partnership and Strategic Competition
By Anna Belcikova | 12 November 2025
Summary
In late September, US firms signed multiple trade agreements with Central Asia, the United States (US) government publicly endorsing the deals. These include Wabtec in Kazakhstan and Boeing in Uzbekistan, demonstrating a deepening of bilateral economic ties.
The agreements will provide mutual economic benefits, such as increased investment for Central Asian states and job creation for the US. They also reflect the US’s motivation to lessen dependence on China amidst ongoing trade tensions, contributing to the development of a potential alternative in response to critical raw mineral (CRM) supply chain vulnerabilities.
In the future, further economic cooperation is expected, with Central Asia balancing its multi-vector foreign policy amidst growing significance regarding the management of CRMs.
Context
Last month, in line with the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly, the US signed multiple large-scale trade agreements with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The most significant of Uzbekistan’s procurement deals was with Boeing, involving the acquisition of up to 22787 Dreamliners, valued at USD 8.5b. US President Donald Trump commented that the deal was “fantastic”, with additional smaller deals and projects being agreed upon in sectors such as mining, finance, and artificial intelligence. From Kazakhstan’s perspective, the most notable outcome was the signing of a USD 4.2b contract with Wabtec Corporation. Its focus was on the production of 300 freight trains at the firm’s Astana facility, with the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stating that the deal was the “largest” of its kind. The signing of these numerous agreements represents the strengthening of US bilateral ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, whilst simultaneously posing domestic economic and regional political implications.
Implications
From an economic perspective, these agreements strengthen US-Central Asian ties, providing the US with strategic opportunities amidst an ongoing trade war and offering Central Asia greater foreign investment and technological development capabilities. The key tangible economic benefit for the US will be job creation, with the Boeing deal expected to generate 35,000 vacancies. In the context of Kazakhstan’s deal, such large agreements help promote the transformation of its railway industry. This is supported by Wabtec’s increased presence fuelling innovation, for example by developing a new engineering centre in the country. As a result, Kazakhstan benefits from modernisation, lower costs, and certain skills development. However, there are risks associated with the extent of the technology transfer, with a localisation rate estimated at 45%. Therefore, the full economic benefits of the recent deals are contingent upon efficient technology absorption and value chain integration, to avoid Kazakhstan becoming a predominantly consumer market rather than a producer one. In the case of the Boeing deal, similar considerations can be applied; however, it is also expected to foster economic growth through increased connectivity and tourism.
However, increased US engagement in Central Asia signals deeper strategic motivations and significant geopolitical implications for the region. This is because the US’s consolidation of Central Asian partnerships can be seen as a reflection of its ongoing trade war with China, specifically China’s decision regarding the recent intensification of export controls on CRMs. Therefore, increased deals with Central Asian states and investment into the Middle Corridor can be seen as a strategic bridge towards further cooperation, and an attempt to decrease dependence on China. This is due to China’s significant CRM market leverage, the country controlling an estimated 60% of worldwide production and over 85% of the processing capacity. In comparison, Central Asia can be seen as an alternative, possessing a significant share of the global reserves, such as 38.6% of manganese ore. On the one hand, from the perspective of Central Asian states, increased cooperation with the US is beneficial to the region’s multi-vector foreign policy, as it helps balance China's influence. However, it also risks increasing overall geopolitical competition, with Central Asian states potentially facing heightened pressure through economic statecraft from rival stakeholders.
Thus, in conclusion, the recent trade agreements signal a strengthening economic partnership between the US and Central Asia, whilst simultaneously reflecting the broader geopolitical dynamics regarding ongoing competition with China.
Gift Habeshaw/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
The signing of the trade agreements, combined with the US government’s vocal support, is highly likely to bring greater visibility to the region, thus encouraging potential future investment in sectors ranging from energy to digitalisation.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The deepening of the economic relationships is likely to create a pathway for the US to leverage Central Asia as an alternative to China, with the region having the potential to provide diversification of supply sources and opportunities for the West to invest in refining capacity.
Long-term (>1 year)
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will likely experience tangible economic benefits from both deals, as locomotives will be delivered annually from 2027 to 2036, and the planes are scheduled to arrive in 2031. However, there may be some infrastructural bottlenecks that could risk limiting the impact.
