Uganda’s Ebola Management: Successes, Challenges, and the Global Outlook
Aryana Ris-Luamháin | 26 February 2025
Summary
An Ebola outbreak in Uganda has been declared and followed by a swift vaccine trial rollout.
The outbreak will disrupt the Ugandan economy, affecting key sectors such as tourism and hospitality. Further, public scepticism and conspiracy theories continue to pose challenges.
This outbreak is likely to remain well-contained and the vaccine should reduce future epidemics. However, there are questions over how effectively future health crises across the globe can be managed with reduced US foreign aid.
On 29 January 2025, the Ugandan Ministry of Health confirmed an outbreak of Ebola caused by the Sudan virus. This marks the eighth Ebola outbreak in Uganda since the country’s first recorded case in 2000. Ebola is a highly infectious disease spread by contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person or their contaminated items. Previous outbreaks of the Sudan variant have had a 40% mortality rate, making it one of the most deadly pathogens in the world. As of 14 February 2025, there are nine confirmed cases and one death. Officials from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have stated that the outbreak is currently stable.
Uganda has a strong track record in responding to public health crises, and this is reflected in its response to the outbreak. The Ministry of Health is actively conducting contact tracing and, as such, 265 individuals are currently in quarantine. The World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Regional Director for Africa Dr Matshidiso Meti has praised the government’s prompt response and declaration. The WHO is playing a large role in the control of the outbreak, having released USD 2 million in aid to support Uganda’s efforts. On X, Director-General of the WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated these funds will help with “surveillance, laboratories, logistics, infection prevention and control in hospitals, treatment centres and research”. Typically, the United States (US) Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) would mobilise to assist, but the Trump Administration’s foreign aid pause has meant that this support has not materialised.
Unlike the Zaire strain of the Ebola virus, there is currently no licensed vaccine for the Sudan strain. However, a vaccine trial for it has been rapidly rolled out at an “unprecedented speed” in the days after the initial announcement of the current outbreak. Initial trials have found the vaccine to be effective and capable of producing a strong immune response, but this is the first time it has been tested in the midst of an outbreak. Individuals who were closely linked to the individual who died from the virus are among the first to receive the vaccine - forming what the Ugandan government hopes to be a ‘vaccination ring’ around cases.
The risk of the outbreak to public health nonetheless remains high. This is compounded by factors that exacerbate the spread of the virus. For instance, conspiracy theories pertaining to Ebola are common in Uganda. These lower public confidence in the government and medical professionals, making many people afraid or unwilling to seek medical treatment. President Yoweri Museveni complained of people seeking treatment from traditional healers rather than medical professionals during the 2022 outbreak.
Ebola outbreaks in Uganda also pose increased economic risks, particularly within the tourism sector. Travel advice has been issued in a number of countries, including the UK, advising travellers to visit Uganda for essential purposes only. This is detrimental as tourism is a key part of Uganda’s economy, with tourism revenue exceeding USD 1 billion in 2023 alone. Economic consequences are expected to follow from this as reduced consumer spending will slow down economic activity in the country.
DFID/Anna Dubuis/Wikimedia, CC BY 2.0
Forecast
Short-term
The outbreak is likely to remain stable as a result of the joint containment efforts by the Ugandan government and WHO.
Long-term
The vaccine for the Sudan strain of the Ebola virus is projected to be widely available and effective once the trial concludes and it is officially licensed. This is very likely to reduce the frequency and severity of future Sudan-strain Ebola outbreaks.
Disinformation will likely continue to heighten risks to public health by lowering public confidence in the government and medical professionals, hindering the efficacy of containment measures deployed by the Ugandan government in future epidemics.
In the coming years, it will likely become more challenging for global health threats to be addressed timely and effectively as the US steps away from intervention.