Trump’s Middle Eastern Foreign Policy: Negotiating Tensions In the Middle East
Thomas Graham | 30 April 2025
Summary
The Trump administration has adopted a strongly pro-Israel position, supporting its military operations in Gaza and the highly controversial idea of resettling Palestinians outside the territory.
President Donald Trump reinforced US military presence in the Middle East to deter Iran and its proxies, such as the Houthis, while threatening further sanctions and military strikes unless Iran halts its nuclear ambitions.
Trump is prioritising renewed ties with the Gulf Arab States, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, to secure investment deals and counter China's growing regional influence.
President Trump’s administration promised to restructure US foreign policy in the Middle East, by strengthening ties with key allies and taking a harsher stance toward adversaries in the region. His adoption of a pragmatic isolationist stance signals that the Middle East is a secondary concern for the US, focused on containing the influence and expansion of Islamic fundamentalism, advanced by Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’, and improving relations with key allies, such as Israel and the Gulf Arab States. 4 months into Trump’s incumbency, these goals have broadly materialised through:
Allowing Israel greater operational freedom and resuming the conflict in Gaza with the aim of defeating Hamas decisively. Besides non-interference, the US has voiced support for the controversial idea of resettling the Palestinians outside of the Gaza Strip.
The deployment of 2 US aircraft carriers in the Middle East and stealth bombers in the Diego Garcia base serves both as a deterrence force against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and a threat to Iran.
Trump has threatened further sanctions and military action against Iran, if the country does not agree to negotiate to prevent its development of nuclear weapons.
The US President has planned state visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, amidst negotiations for investments potentially amounting to USD 1t in the US.
The War in Gaza
Diverging from the Biden administration, Trump has done little to pressure Israel into securing a ceasefire with Hamas. On the contrary, it has echoed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s tough stance with a demand for the unconditional release of all hostages and hinting at a possible resettlement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. This stance is markedly pro-Israel in comparison with that espoused by previous administrations, and is very likely a result of Trump’s aims to support the Jewish State and contain Iran’s influence in the Middle East, as Hamas is widely regarded as an Iranian proxy group.
While it is likely that Israel will continue its military occupation of the Gaza Strip into 2025, with the goals of achieving a ‘total victory’ against Hamas and rescuing the hostages, the end goal of the Gaza War remains unclear. It is highly likely that Prime Minister Netanyahu will continue to prolong the war as much as allowed by domestic and international pressures, given that it remains in Israel's national security interests, is a central tenet of the far-right coalition that maintains him in power, and allows him to potentially delay ongoing corruption trials. Trump’s posturing serves to embolden the Israeli administration in this goal.
Regional Deterrence
Houthi militants have routinely threatened Israeli and Western-linked cargo ships traversing the Red Sea via the Suez Canal. Continuing Biden’s policy of deterrence against the group, the Trump administration ordered targeted strikes against the insurgents, the most notable of which resulted in the Signal group chat security breach debacle. Likely intent on intimidating the proxy group and its patron, Iran, the US has recently bolstered its striking capacity in the region with the addition of carrier USS Carl Vinson and six B-2 stealth bombers. This move is very likely linked to Trump’s attempts to bring Iran to the negotiating table regarding its nuclear program, both as a means of intimidation and a last resort in the realistic possibility that the US sees no alternative other than striking Iran’s nuclear development facilities.
Gulf State Relations
Good relations with the Gulf Arab States were a central tenet of the first Trump Presidency, which has been strengthened with the current administration. Biden’s foreign policy as a champion of democracy and human rights often contrasts with the political realities of the US’ Middle Eastern allies. Seeing the potential to secure lucrative investment deals with Gulf Arab States, Trump will likely conduct state visits with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. These visits will also serve to persuade them that the US is still their most favourable power broker in the region, in the face of an encroaching China seeking to expand its influence in a multipolarised Middle East.
The Trump White House Archived
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
US foreign policy in the region is very likely to continue applying pressure to Iran, both by allowing operations against its proxies and threatening to strike in case a nuclear deal is not achieved.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
There is a realistic possibility that the Trump administration will attempt to advance the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, this time between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Diplomatic normalisation and the expansion of commerce between these two nations would prove disastrous for the Palestinian cause in Gaza.
Long-term (>1 year)
As the US’ attention turns towards China and the Pacific, there is a realistic possibility that Trump seeks to disrupt the expansion of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East. This geopolitical move will most likely occur through diplomatic backdoors, providing incentives for countries to replace and abstain from Chinese investment offers.
