Horn Of Africa Tensions: Regional Dynamics and Turkiye’s Strategic Partnerships
Elif Bas | 20 March 2024
Summary
Türkiye signed a defence agreement with Somalia amid tension in the region over Ethiopia leasing land from Somaliland in exchange for recognition.
Preexisting tensions are further complicated by the presence of Türkiye, with the potential for escalation and severe disruption of international shipping and widespread instability in the Horn of Africa.
Shipping costs will increase short-term; however international interests in maintaining peace in the region will prevent violence descending.
Since the beginning of the year, the Horn of Africa has been experiencing novel diplomatic tensions. Ethiopia, as the most populated landlocked country, has a keen interest in decreasing its dependence on Djibouti ports, caused by losing access to the Red Sea in 1993 due to the separation of Eritrea. Ethiopia and Somalia have a history of border disputes and wars since the 1960s - with Türkiye and the US supporting Somalia since the 1980s - resulting in instability and ongoing tensions. In January, Somaliland, which is not internationally recognised and part of Somali territory, signed a controversial port-for-recognition agreement with Ethiopia, allegedly granting them access to the Red Sea through the port of Berbera. This significantly undermined Somalia's sovereignty and caused an uproar, with protesters voicing discontent about leasing land to other states.
Last month, Türkiye and Somalia signed a defence and economic cooperation agreement to bolster territorial control and ensure stability. Ankara will enhance Somalia's maritime security by assisting in countering illegal fishing and piracy in Somalia’s territorial waters by providing training and equipment. In return, Türkiye will receive a 30% share of maritime revenue. This was followed by a second agreement signed in March, focusing on the joint exploration, evaluation, development, and production of oil and gas in Somali territory. The countries have a strong historical partnership dating back to Ottoman times, with Türkiye assisting Somalia with education, healthcare, infrastructure, and military training.
With Türkiye's increased presence in the region, Ethiopia might perceive its access to the Red Sea as threatened, which could complicate internal power dynamics and escalate the situation. The deal might also impact the UAE's presence in Somalia, as it has provided military training and assistance to anti-piracy efforts since 2014.
The maritime security of the Horn of Africa is significant to international shipping routes with a potential global impact. Further, increased tensions cause concerns that, if managed poorly, the conflict could spread across the region, given the existing instability in Sudan, putting many countries' security interests at risk. Others argue Türkiye's involvement could push the parties to the negotiation table. Simultaneously, the deal reflects Türkiye’s ambition to expand its influence beyond its immediate neighbours and build a global reputation. Recent events in the Red Sea caused serious disruption in global supply chains, likely prompting strategic interest in physical presence in the region. Ankara signed a similar deal on oil and gas exploration with the internationally recognised government of Libya in 2022, underscoring its interest in becoming an energy partner for Africa.
Ilyas Ahmed
Forecast
Short-term: Disruptions of international shipping are likely, causing businesses to face increased costs and supply delays due to rerouting and potential reliance on airfreight. While tensions are likely to remain heightened in the short term, international stakeholders will likely intervene diplomatically to foster negotiations and release tensions.
Long-term: Due to the heightened involvement of outside actors, high interest in maintaining peace in the region, and limited capacity to engage in armed conflict, tensions are unlikely to escalate. Türkiye is expected to continue its aspirations of expanding its presence and power beyond the Middle East.