The Enemy of My Enemy: Iranian-Russian Strategic Partnership Advances Geopolitical Multipolarisation
Thomas Graham | 11 February 2025
Summary
Iran and Russia have signed a strategic partnership deal to enhance economic, diplomatic, and military cooperation.
The deal has emerged amidst a volatile geopolitical scenario, in which both signatories feel threatened by the liberal democratic West.
Further driving multipolarisation, Moscow and Tehran stand to amplify their energy security and hybrid warfare capabilities, increasing their resilience and power projection capacities.
Iran and Russia signed a 20-year strategic partnership deal on 17 January 2025, aiming for increased cooperation in defence, economy, infrastructure, energy, technology, culture, and cyberspace security. In practice, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty will likely see an increase in intelligence-sharing, cooperation in military innovation and cyber capabilities, and initiatives to enhance energy security, such as resource supply commitments. Nuclear cooperation, briefly mentioned in Article 23 under the pretence of “implementing joint projects in the area of peaceful use of nuclear energy”, is likely to contain hidden clauses regarding Moscow’s assistance in Tehran’s pursuit of atomic weapons. While the treaty does not explicitly guarantee security guarantees from either party, it is evident that each regime now perceives an alignment of interests, rooted in recent geopolitical developments.
Why did the deal originate?
A glance at Iran and Russia’s geopolitical environment is quick to reveal the motivations behind the agreement. Both countries are currently the target of heavy Western sanctions, embroiled in conflicts of attrition with Israel and Ukraine, respectively, and faced with a Trump Administration which seeks to empower the Jewish State and NATO’s fighting capabilities. Furthermore, they are both recovering from the recent loss of influence in Syria, through the defeat of ally Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, granting Israel more autonomy to act in the Middle East and the strengthening of Europe’s fighting capabilities spells bad news for the deal’s signatories, as its democratic neighbours became increasingly capable of undermining their strong-armed attempts to project influence. Beyond finding common enemies in the West, Tehran and Moscow also possess remarkable similarities of circumstances. As oil-rich nations run by authoritarian regimes who are skilled in the strategies of hybrid warfare, they have much to gain from sharing technology innovation and manufacturing knowledge. Given this context, it is unsurprising that enough common ground was identified to seek out an agreement for relationship-building and the mutual strengthening of state economic and military capabilities.
What are the likely implications of the deal?
The Iranian-Russian deal is another symptom of a multipolar world order which has progressively brewed in the 21st century. So far, Moscow and Tehran have been the main nations to capitalise on a globally rescinding US in Europe and the Middle East, epitomised by President Trump’s approach of pragmatic isolationism. Each has raced to expand its spheres of influence, rapidly amplifying a ‘West versus East’ divide which challenges the liberal international order. While the agreement cannot be considered an alliance or unified front against the West, it has certainly emerged as a means to strengthen illiberal regimes’ economic, diplomatic and military capabilities in face of it. The agreement is likely to have unsettled liberal countries. Russia and Iran have recently acquired the status of Pariah in the West, respectively, for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Hamas proxy attack on Israel in 2023, as well as a range of cyber and ransomware attacks aimed at disrupting public and private critical national infrastructure. An increase in capabilities might enhance their capacity to further threaten and disrupt the status quo, a scenario which must be taken very seriously by their liberal geopolitical rivals.
National Police of Ukraine/Wikimedia, CC BY 4.0
Forecast
Short-term
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty is very likely to enhance Iranian and Russian information sharing, energy resource commitments, and hybrid warfare capabilities based on these countries’ shared strengths. Although obscured in the deal, there is a realistic possibility that Moscow may assist Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon, a prospect which would destabilise the Middle East.
Long-term
The deal signifies a further shift towards a multipolar world order, in which nations with common rivals in the West are seen to cooperate to rescind liberal influence. The success of the agreement is likely to result in a strengthening of Iranian and Russian hybrid warfare capabilities, employed to expand their capacity to project power in the Middle East and Europe, respectively.