Sweden’s Accession to NATO
Kira Persson | 7 March 2024
Summary
On 26th February 2024 Hungary approved Sweden’s accession to NATO, removing the last hurdle for formal membership. This ends Sweden’s two centuries of military non-alignment. The country has not been at war since 1814.
Sweden’s decision to join NATO followed the transformed security climate in Europe, after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The invasion triggered an urgent review of Sweden’s long-term security policy.
Sweden will contribute to NATO with specialised defence technologies and equipment tailored to the Baltic Sea region.
In February this year, Hungary became the final country to approve Sweden’s accession to NATO. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his government have faced increased pressure from NATO member states to ratify Sweden’s entry. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary-General, welcomed Sweden stating that “Sweden's membership will make us all stronger and safer”.
Since 1994 when Sweden joined the Partnership for Peace, the country has increasingly cooperated with NATO, being an Enhanced Opportunities Partner, and participating in NATO military operations. However, President Putin’s coercive foreign policy and rhetoric, and his low threshold for the use of military force, spurred a debate on formal membership. In May 2022, three months after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Sweden applied to formally join.
What will Sweden bring to the alliance? Robert Dalsjö, senior analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), said "NATO gains a member that is serious and capable and it removes a factor of uncertainty in Northern Europe”. With proficient sea floor and underwater expertise, Sweden contributes with valuable military knowledge, submarines designed for the conditions of the Baltic Sea, and anti-submarine technology. It will also bring a large fleet of domestically produced Gripen fighter jets. With NATO’s addition of Finland and Sweden, Western cooperation, security, and strategic depth will improve in the Baltic Sea — a crucial transit route for the Russian navy and Putin’s expansionist project. In the case of conflict with Russia, NATO will control most of the Baltic Sea.
In return, Sweden will enjoy the advantages of NATO membership: the Article 5 guarantee of collective defence, interoperability with allies, improved military capability and procurement.
Sweden’s membership also has symbolic value, affirming the country’s alignment with the West, and its commitment to peace in Europe. Importantly, with both Sweden and Finland joining NATO, ending their long and devoted histories of neutrality, an important message should be conveyed to countries on the fence regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Swedish Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson said "We are joining NATO in order to defend what we are and everything we believe in even better. We are defending our freedom, our democracy and our values, together with others”.
There are fallacies in Sweden’s current defence, however. National security experts in Sweden have highlighted the vulnerable nature of Swedish infrastructure, for instance. The public transit rail network in Stockholm is operated by Hong Kong-based MTR, which has connections to the Communist Party. Reports by the FOI have underscored how foreign direct investments in infrastructure may compromise national security. There is a consensus in the government that a rapid increase in military capacity is required. Moreover, after two centuries of neutrality, it is perhaps fair to apply the term “fredsskadad” or “peace-damaged” to the Swedish population. Whilst increasingly in favour of NATO membership, the public must change its psychological approach to war, to build resilience and preparedness in the reality of external threats and military conflict, and to improve its attitude towards Swedish defence.
Importantly, the ratification process has reflected some of NATO’s internal shortcomings. Hungary’s position on Sweden’s entry raised concerns among NATO allies. Both Hungary and Turkey, which also raised objections to Swedish membership, have closer ties to Russia than other NATO members. Turkey objected Sweden’s accommodation of militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). To appease Turkey, Sweden hardened its laws on participation in terrorist organisations, and relaxed rules on arms sales. Hungary has expressed frustration over Sweden’s critique of Orbán’s direction of democracy, as the country has adopted increasingly undemocratic politics. The stances of Turkey and Hungary towards Sweden’s accession reflect two important things. Firstly, there are diverging perceptions of Russia within NATO. Secondly, individual member states may perceive domestic challenges as their primary security threat — an expansionist European aggressor comes further down on their list (surprisingly so in the case of Hungary). Narrow interests and individual domestic politics certainly affect the wider NATO alliance and its potential to make decisions and move forward in times of crisis.
Sweden’s accession to NATO will be the end of a long process, and while Russia has had ample time to mull over the consequences, this completes the invasion-induced NATO expansion.
NATO/Flickr
Forecast
Short-term: Swedish NATO membership is a significant strategic setback for Russia and will doubtlessly change its military map. Sweden will see increased military spending in 2024 to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP threshold. Further, membership will likely increase Sweden’s public understanding of, and readiness for, the realities of military conflict.
Long-term: NATO’s abilities to protect and understand the Baltic Sea region will most certainly be bolstered. Sweden and Finland both joining NATO, and thus fundamentally changing their histories of neutral foreign policies, demonstrates to Kremlin that Finland’s accession was not a unique incident. This should communicate an important symbolic message to countries who have not yet taken a clear stance in the war. Nevertheless, the process of Sweden’s accession has reflected shortcomings that may undermine NATO’s credibility.