Saudi-Israeli Normalisation: What Happens Next?
Thomas Graham | 20 February 2024
Summary
Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks have been on hold since the war in Gaza began.
Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7th October 2023 likely had an objective to spoil Saudi-Israeli normalisation.
Normalisation will likely be achieved in the long term, emphasising strategic and economic benefits to Israel and Saudi Arabia, through United States (US) mediation.
The Israel-Hamas War has proved a tough diplomatic challenge for Saudi Arabia. On the one hand, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) official title as ‘Protector of the Two Holy Cities’ grants a unique position of legitimacy to the claim of leadership over Sunni Islam, which extends to, at least in appearance, protection of the Sunni-majority Palestinians. On the other hand, the kingdom’s rivalry with Iran and rapidly diversifying economy position Israel as a strong contender for formalised economic and security cooperation, with the potential to mirror the successes of the Abraham Accords between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel.
The Israeli offensive in Gaza marked an abrupt change in Saudi Arabia’s rhetoric. Between September and October 2023, MBS’ stance flipped from affirming that ‘every day we get closer’ to a normalisation deal with Israel, to a suspension of Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks. Pundits speculate that one of Hamas’ primary goals in the 7th October 2023 attack was to spoil any potential deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If this was indeed the case, Hamas’ success is likely to be short-lived.
The strategic benefits of a Jerusalem-Riyadh nexus have become increasingly harder to ignore. Iranian-supported militias in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria are a consistent thorn in the side of Israel and Saudi Arabia, recently escalating to attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and strikes on the US military bases in the Middle East. Given the US’ strong ties with both Israel and Saudi Arabia, normalisation is only a matter of patience and mediation, also conditional on MBS’ desire for a defence pact with the US. This event will mark another significant step in the geopolitical reconfiguration of the Middle East, notably along pro- and anti-Iranian lines.
Forecast
Short-term: Saudi-Israeli normalisation is not likely to progress as the war in Gaza continues, while the final peace settlement will undoubtedly influence Saudi-Israeli relations.
Medium-term: Escalation between Western-backed forces and Iran’s proxy militias is likely to continue strategically aligning Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Long-term: Saudi-Israeli normalisation is likely to be achieved in the long run, especially as Iran progressively expands its influence and destabilises countries in the region.