Russia's Future Arctic Arms Race
Alex Blackburn | 19 November 2024
Summary
Putin views the Arctic as essential for its economic resources and security, seeking control over its resources beyond its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone.
Russia's Arctic ambitions are driven by economic interests and national security concerns, particularly in response to perceived threats from the U.S. and its allies.
Russia’s selective adherence to international law and portrayal of Western nations as hostile competitors may lead to increased militarisation of the Arctic as it pursues control over strategic resources.
Putin’s territorial interests extend beyond the Ukrainian border as it also looks northward to secure its geopolitical dominance and future security. The Arctic Ocean, designated as a “vital” ocean in Russia’s Maritime Doctrine, is viewed as an essential resource base to supplement Russia’s dwindling terrestrial deposits. It is believed to hold untapped reserves of phosphate, bauxite, iron ore, copper, nickel, and diamonds. In December 2023, at a Navy forum, Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov, head of the Russian Navy, reinforced this new doctrine by emphasising Russia’s commitment to the “full-scale development” of the Arctic beyond its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone, declaring the Arctic a “strategic resource base” of significant economic importance.
Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic are not solely focused on economic objectives; they are also closely linked to national security priorities. Recent Russian strategic policy has highlighted that sovereignty over Arctic resources is essential for state security. For Russia, defending its Arctic ambitions involves establishing territorial claims and countering perceived threats, particularly from the United States and its allies. In recent years, Russia has accused these nations of militarising the Arctic and pursuing containment strategies that hinder Russia’s access to resources.
Although Russia claims to adhere to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in delimiting the Arctic continental shelf (operating within its 200-mile exclusive economic zone), Russia’s Foreign Policy Strategy states that international boundaries will only be recognised “unconditionally in line with its national interests and sovereign rights.” This perspective reflects Russia’s broader stance that international norms are subordinate to its objectives. Its recent actions in Ukraine have undermined trust among Arctic states such as Canada, Denmark, and the United States regarding Russia’s commitment to international law.
Moreover, Russia’s selective adherence to international law indicates that, despite its stated intentions, Moscow may prioritise unilateral actions over cooperative governance if it perceives its interests are threatened. Putin warns of “strategic competition” in the Arctic and accuses other ‘Arctic’ nations of hostility. By portraying Canada and other Western allies as antagonistic "Anglo-Saxon" forces aligned with the United States, Russia frames Arctic disputes within the broader context of the geopolitical rivalry between NATO and the Russian Federation. This framing could lead to greater militarisation of the Arctic as Russia feels compelled to defend what it sees as a vulnerable resource base against foreign containment.
Looking ahead, Russia’s Arctic policy signals an escalating struggle for control over resources, driven by geopolitical rivalry and economic necessity. As climate change accelerates, opening new sea routes and revealing untapped resources will likely enable Russia’s Arctic ambitions to grow. However, Arctic nations, wary of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and its dismissive attitude toward international law, may seek to strengthen their own military and economic presence in the region, potentially leading to an Arctic arms race.
Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term
Over the coming years, Russia will be looking to show its naval strength in the Arctic sea. Having already been embarrassed in the Black Sea by Ukrainian efforts to suppress Russian naval dominance, Russia may seek to assert itself further in the Arctic Sphere by conducting more daring exercises with its Northern Fleet. This may prompt a NATO response in the region, formally establishing an Arctic arms race.
Long-term
As climate change accelerates Arctic ice melt, Russia will likely intensify its control over newly accessible sea routes and untapped resources, using its military presence to assert dominance. With the Arctic Treaty’s enforcement waning, Russia may establish more military infrastructure, pushing other Arctic and NATO nations to bolster their defences and increase military exercises in the region. This escalation could transform the Arctic into a flashpoint of geopolitical competition, driven by resource extraction and strategic interests.