Rishi Sunak's Proposal to Reintroduce Military Service
Marco Garzia | 28 May 2024
Summary
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has ventilated the reintroduction of the national military services for 18-year-olds. Criminal sanctions will not be introduced and alternative service pathways would be included. The move has sparked widespread criticism yet remains unlikely to be implemented, due to recent polls suggesting an upcoming Labour-led government.
Such a proposal would introduce serious organisational challenges whilst also leaving recruitment shortfalls unaddressed. Moreover, the vital 18-24 age cohort appears to be hostile to the introduction of mandatory military service.
As recruitment issues are not unique to the UK and have impacted the operational readiness of multiple NATO members, militaries could first reconsider their composition and understand the reasons behind the lack of engagement within Gen Z.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has recently mentioned the possibility of reintroducing 12 months of military service for British 18-year-olds amidst recent struggles to hit recruitment numbers. The move has received widespread criticism by Labour, who have referred to it as a “gimmick”. Former senior military staff also commented on the feasibility and implementation difficulties of the GBP 2.5 billion plan. Multiple critics have noted that it would require a high degree of coordination to render this program beneficial, rather than outright harmful, to the armed forces. However, it must be noted that the proposal would offer two alternative pathways to young people wishing to avoid full-time placement in the armed forces, namely 12 months of service in the UK Cyber Defence or spending one weekend a month volunteering within their communities.
Considering the British Army has been missing annual recruitment targets since 2010, such a plan could provide much-needed relief to the Armed Forces, following increased geopolitical turmoil and the return of conventional warfare at NATO’s doorstep. However, for successful implementation, the proposal would have to overcome two notable shortcomings. Firstly, the lack of criminal sanctions, as mentioned by Home Secretary James Cleverly, coupled with alternative paths for service amidst widespread hostility to mandatory military service within the 18-24 age cohort. YouGov and JL Partners reported, respectively, that only 10% of this cohort actively supports a one-year mandatory service, with 65% of this age cohort more likely to oppose it. Secondly, the UK has not had military service in place since 1960, a time when militaries were structured for a substantially different type of warfare, and operated on a lesser level of complexity than today. This casts a shadow on the utility of recruits acquired through this scheme and introduces organisational complexities that may hinder the overall quality of the fighting force.
Amidst NATO-wide struggles to hit recruitment targets, it remains to be seen how military forces will cope with this issue. One thing is for sure, similar proposals have been ventilated by politicians in multiple countries as the resurgent Russian aggression has sparked fears on both sides of the Atlantic over the capacity to carry out prolonged conventional warfare. However, militaries could first reconsider their composition in light of their global strategic objectives, coupled with serious investigations into the reasons behind their current recruitment shortfalls amongst the youth, rather than assuming future military operations resembling what is playing out in Ukraine.
Forecast
Short-term
The proposal is likely not to be implemented as the Conservatives are projected to turn into an opposition party following the 2024 General Elections.
Medium-term
The UK Armed Forces are likely to suffer from recruitment shortfalls that may impact their capacity to operate effectively.
Long-term
Amidst growing global tensions, the incumbent government may raise the Defence budget to address the issue. However, the root causes of the recruitment problems are likely to remain partially unaddressed, as general hostility to similar programs has been documented in the 18-24 age cohort in countries facing similar challenges.