Review on Mexico Breaking Diplomatic Relations with Ecuador Following Raid on Embassy in Quito
29 May 2024
Summary
In violation of international law, Ecuadorian security forces stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito on 5th April 2024 to arrest Former Vice-President Jorge Glas, causing a diplomatic fallout between both countries.
Citizens in both nations will not suffer repercussions. Additionally, exporters’ associations from the two countries have stated that commerce will be unaffected.
An upcoming politically charged calendar, makes the resumption of bilateral ties highly unlikely in the short term.
Ecuadorian security forces stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito on 5th April 2024 to arrest Former Vice-President Jorge Glas. Convicted twice of corruption, Glas had been at the diplomatic premises since December, seeking political asylum after a judge issued a warrant for his arrest. The raid culminated weeks of escalating tensions as the Mexican Ambassador in Quito was declared persona non grata following President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO) comments questioning the integrity of the recent Ecuadorian presidential election. Mexico’s subsequent decision to grant political asylum to Jorge Glas, leading to the embassy assault, resulted in AMLO’s administration responding by cutting diplomatic ties with Quito.
Ecuador’s actions were condemned by international organisations and influential states, such as the Organization of American States, the European Union, and the United States. The Mexican government has since filed a complaint before the International Court of Justice and asked the United Nations for further sanctions as the assault breached the inviolability of diplomatic premises enshrined in the Vienna Convention. Nevertheless, President Daniel Noboa has received support from Ecuadorians who see the unprecedented measures necessary. The Andean country is currently undergoing an acute security crisis, as corruption, cartels and gangs have made Ecuador the most violent nation in Latin America. The diplomatic fallout comes amid a politically charged calendar. Coupled with both countries’ general elections, on 21st April 2024, Ecuadorians were voting on the implementation of harsher methods to combat the increasing insecurity, including extradition, increased penalties, and enhanced military powers.
Nationals in both countries will not suffer repercussions. The two nations have stated that support to citizens and businesses will still be provided through consulates and embassies in neighbouring countries. Regarding trade, Ecuadorian and Mexican exporters’ associations have stated that commerce will be unaffected. However, negotiations for a free-trade agreement between both countries have been suspended, preventing Ecuador from joining the Pacific Alliance trade bloc, and limiting future potential trade opportunities.
Forecast
Short-term
Despite international condemnations, significant repercussions on Ecuador are unlikely due to the ICJ’s lack of direct enforcement mechanisms coupled with heightened attention to the Middle East. Additionally, the upcoming politically charged calendar makes the resumption of diplomatic ties highly unlikely.
Medium and long-term
It is almost certain that Ecuador and Mexico will resume bilateral relations as Quito looks to join the Pacific Alliance which requires Mexico’s approval. Moreover, the interconnectedness between Mexican cartels and Ecuadorian gangs, means that future cooperation would greatly help tackle both nations’ worrying violence.