Rio Tinto Returns? The EU’s Risky Embrace of Serbia’s Lithium Mine
Milica Starinac | 23 June 2025
Summary
The European Commission has designated the Jadar lithium project in Serbia, operated by Rio Tinto, as a strategic project under the Critical Raw Materials Act, despite years of public opposition and political controversy within Serbia.
The move underscores the EU's urgency to reduce dependence on China for lithium and bolster its green transition, especially in light of tightening Chinese export controls, but risks further alienating Serbian citizens.
In the wake of domestic protests and declining public trust in institutions, the EU’s backing of the project will likely deepen anti-European sentiment in Serbia. In the medium to long term, the mine’s future will hinge on Serbia’s internal political trajectory and its relationship with EU institutions.
The European Commission (EC) listed the Jadar project in Serbia, run by Anglo-Australian company Rio Tinto, as one of 13 strategic critical raw material projects outside of the European Union (EU). The decision came on 4 June 2025, almost a year after the Constitutional Court of Serbia ruled in the mining company’s favour and overruled the Government’s decision from 2022, which halted the controversial project following a series of protests across the country. In the European Union, particularly Germany, which has a strong automotive industry, the lithium-mining project is seen as an important step in reducing dependency on China and boosting production of electric vehicles. However, the Serbian public widely opposed this project due to environmental and governance concerns.
Rio Tinto first came to Serbia in the early 2000s and discovered the mineral jadarite — named after the valley of the river Jadar in Western Serbia — which is a raw mineral containing both lithium and boron. In 2017, the proposed lithium-mining project received support from the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and the Government ruled by his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), but numerous experts and activists voiced concerns. Rio Tinto then became probably the most unpopular company in the country, as the citizens’ opposition to the project grew, leading to two major waves of protests — from April to September 2021, and in the summer of 2024. Main concerns surrounding the project involve environmental health, Rio Tinto’s reputation, and the lack of trust in the Serbian institutions to hold the company accountable to adequate standards. In response to these criticisms, Rio Tinto and the Serbian officials supporting the project claimed that it will result in economic benefits, provide enough lithium to manufacture batteries for 1.1 million electric vehicles and possibly bring car manufacturers to Serbia, according to President Vučić. However, a group of economists from Serbia argued that Rio Tinto would be the one reaping economic benefits after the government’s subsidies: they estimated that total revenues of the project would be EUR 2.6 (GBP 2.2) per capita annually, which seems negligible considering the possible environmental impact.
The EC selected 60 projects it deemed strategic in implementing the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). Out of the 47 projects in the EU, only seven include the mining and processing of lithium. The reignited focus on Serbian lithium — a key component in manufacturing batteries needed for electric vehicles — comes after China’s decision in April to impose export curbs on rare earth minerals until new licences are renegotiated. Proponents of the project claim that a potential mine in Jadar valley could supply 90% of Europe’s lithium demand, but critics have questioned this estimate. Rio Tinto estimates that the mine could produce 58,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually. According to the initial plans, the mine was supposed to become operational by 2027, at an estimated cost of EUR 2.55b (GBP 2.16b). However, Rio Tinto officials stated that the budget would need to be revised to meet EU standards, which were deemed necessary after the designation.
While Brussels, and notably Berlin, continue to advocate for the lithium mine, SNS rule in Serbia is being undermined by the student protests, which began as a response to the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad, in November 2024, but soon turned into nationwide protests against the ruling party’s practices of corruption, impunity and violence. Pushing for the controversial mining project at this moment would be a risky move for the Serbian President, whose popularity has declined in recent months.
Mikolaj Felinski/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Public backlash against the EU will likely intensify, even among pro-European segments of Serbian society, as the decision reinforces the perception that Brussels prioritises strategic and corporate interests over environmental and democratic concerns.
The Serbian government and the president are unlikely to make decisive moves during the ongoing student protests to avoid furthering public dissatisfaction.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The pressure on the Serbian government will likely intensify, and Serbian leadership will feel compelled to deliver on the lithium mine in a quid pro quo arrangement, particularly given the EC’s relatively muted stance on protests and democratic backsliding.
Long-term (>1 year)
The fate of the Jadar project will depend on political developments in Serbia in the next election cycle, but the timeline depends on whether Vučić accepts the students demands and calls snap elections. The most likely outcome is for opposition forces to prevail and SNS to lose power, in which case the mine would likely face cancellation or indefinite suspension despite EU support.
