What does the ICC’s Arrest Warrant against Prime Minister Netanyahu mean for the Conflict in Gaza?
Thomas Graham | 28 November 2024
Summary
The International Criminal Court has produced arrest warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu, former Defence Minister Gallant, and Hamas Commander Deif over their conduct in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
While global responses to the ruling have been mixed, it is evident that politicisation has played a large part in international opinions.
The arrest warrant against PM Netanyahu holds the potential to hinder peace talks and escalate the conflict under a Trump Presidency in 2025.
The arrest warrants from the ICC against Israeli PM Netanyahu, former Israeli Defence Minister Gallant, and Hamas Commander Mohammed Deif on 21 November 2024 are unsurprising. Israel has long been at odds with the international community over the conduct of its war in Gaza and Lebanon, culminating in a ban on the United Nations Works and Relief Agency (UNRWA) in Gaza and the declaration of UN Secretary-General Guterres as ‘persona non grata’ in Israel. The ICC’s official statement claims to have found reasonable grounds to prosecute Netanyahu and Gallant for the war crimes of using starvation as a method of war, murder, persecution and inhumane acts. Simultaneously, Deif is accused of responsibility for murder, extermination, torture, taking hostages and sexual violence. While Gallant has recently been fired from his post over disagreements on the conduct of the war in Gaza and Deif is presumed deceased by Israeli intelligence, the greatest impact from the court’s ruling will fall upon the incumbent Israeli PM.
International responses to the ICC’s ruling have been mixed. United States (US) President Biden, a prominent advocate of liberal internationalism, has expressed ‘outrage’ at the decision, while PM Netanyahu has labelled it as ‘anti-semitic hatred’. Conversely, the warrants have been widely accepted by the European Union (EU) and Middle-Eastern nations, where Hamas has officially welcomed the prosecution without mentioning the charges brought against Deif. The ICC’s attempts to remain impartial in the context of a divisive topic have resulted in a deeply politicised aftermath. The US’ strong alliance with Israel will have certainly influenced its opinion of the ruling, whilst the EU, who had in March 2023 warmly welcomed the ICC’s warrants against Russian President Putin over the war in Ukraine, will have sought to legitimise the court’s previous decision.
The impact of the arrest warrants, especially on PM Netanyahu, is likely to be far-reaching. Domestically, the ICC’s ruling will serve to polarise further an Israeli society largely divided into pro- and anti-war camps, where demonstrations against the ruling coalition are a weekly occurrence. Internationally, Israel is anticipated to further affirm its status as a pariah at odds with international institutions. This situation will hinder any long lasting ceasefire agreement with Hamas and Hezbollah, as a permanent withdrawal from Gaza and Lebanon would certainly require - now unlikely - developmental and peacekeeping assistance from the UN. Furthermore, the deterioration of relations between Europe and Israel will serve to diplomatically isolate a Jewish State increasingly reliant on US influence to pursue its foreign policy goals, which under the incoming 2025 Trump Presidency holds the potential to escalate into strikes against its arch-rival Iran.
International Criminal Court / Source: Flickr
Forecast
Short-term
The ICC’s ruling will highly contribute to an obstruction of any long standing ceasefire agreement between Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel in the short-term.
Medium-term
A diplomatically isolated Israel, emboldened by the support of the incoming Trump Presidency, holds a realistic possibility of increasing military pressure on Iran, with the ultimate goal of striking its nuclear facilities.