Harris vs. Trump: A Comparative Analysis of Middle East Foreign Policy Strategies
Abigail Darwish and Thomas Graham | 28 October 2024
Summary
The upcoming US elections will be pivotal for America’s foreign policy. Harris and Trump believe that America should approach the Middle East through liberal interventionism and pragmatic isolationism, respectively.
Regional challenges faced by the next US President include the next stage of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, addressing Iran and its proxies, and adjusting America’s relationships with Gulf Arab countries.
Complicating matters further for the US is the advent of Middle-Eastern multipolarity, with encroaching powers Russia and China, bolstered by the BRICS+ expansion, beginning to forge regional alliances and establish spheres of influence.
Election Overview
The 60th United States (US) presidential election will occur on Tuesday, 5 November 2024. Of the four presidential candidates, Kamala Harris (Democrat) and Donald Trump (Republican) stand at the centre of political debate. Whilst the American public and international community are largely conversant with the foreign policy strategies of both candidates, with Kamala as the current US Vice President and Trump as a former US President (2017-2021), ongoing geopolitical tensions have made its foreign policy decisions ever more important. A significant scale of escalation in the Middle East was observed in the past year, spanning from Israel’s war with Hamas and Hezbollah, resurging tensions with Iran (in addition to warming relations between Iran and Russia), and shifting alliances in the Gulf region. Not only have these developments prompted mounting pressure on both Harris and Trump to offer solutions and strategies for the region, but the current moment is also a defining point for the trajectory of US global power in the long-term.
The direction of America’s foreign policy — whether interventionist or isolationist — will shape how key players, including Russia and China, assume greater influence in the region. The 2024 election will therefore be crucial in defining the future of the Middle East and US power in the global arena. Harris holds a marginal lead in polls at the time of reporting, but results over recent weeks have fluctuated. As such, it is currently unclear who is most likely to win. Amidst this uncertainty, an analysis of both Harris and Trump’s predicted foreign policy strategies in the Middle East would prove insightful when considering America’s geopolitical stance concerning Israel/Palestine, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
Challenges in the Region
The next US President will face complex, if not entirely novel, challenges in the Middle East:
The decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict has again erupted into all-out war, initiated by the Hamas 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, where the most recent chapters have seen the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) occupy Gaza and conduct airstrikes and ground operations to the north against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hamas and Hezbollah proxy militants are economically and militarily backed by Iran, with whom a war looms following multiple ballistic missile attacks against Israel. The latter has since retaliated with airstrikes against IRGC military facilities and weapon manufacturing sites.
Diminishing US influence in the region, in favour of a focus on the Asia-Pacific, has seen diplomatic and economic encroachment by Russia and China to solidify relations with prominent Middle Eastern nations, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Looking back to see forward
There is precedent to suggest how potential Presidents Harris and Trump will approach these challenges to US foreign policy. While the former has been actively involved in incumbent President Biden’s administration as Vice President since 2021, the latter previously occupied the office from 2017 to 2021.
Trump’s Middle-Eastern Foreign Policy Retrospective (2017 - 2021)
The Trump administration saw a period of relative stability in the Middle East, focused on building a US-oriented coalition of Middle Eastern allies and adopting a hawkish stance against adversaries in the region.
The Trump administration displayed unwavering support for Israel over its four years. Notable moments included the recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital – a deeply controversial issue amongst the international community – and suggestions for a Two-State Solution deal claimed by many Arab states to disfavour Palestinians.
Trump exercised diplomatic and military hostility against Iran. In annulling the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – intended as a diplomatic solution to rescind Iranian sanctions in exchange for halting their development of nuclear capabilities – to striking and killing General Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), US-Iran relations became extremely strained.
Republican direction also culminated in relationship-building with many of the Gulf Arab states. This period saw an increase in American military presence in Saudi Arabia and support for Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey. The US was also successful in facilitating normalisation efforts between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE, countries that maintain good relations to date.
Biden’s Middle-Eastern Foreign Policy Retrospective (2021 - Present)
The Biden-Harris administration has faced a period of instability in the Middle East in the past four years, driven by the conflict between Israel, Iran and its proxies. Its regional focus has resided on preventing military escalation and promoting liberal international values.
Biden has supported Israel in its conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah, especially through the supply of ammunition for the Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile defence and the recent installation of the THAAD ballistic missile defence systems. While the US has also directly struck the Houthis in Yemen in retaliation to their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, they have urged restraint in retaliation against Iran and made Israeli support conditional on the entry of aid for Palestinians in Gaza.
The Biden-Harris administration attempted to rekindle the JCPOA deal with Iran as a diplomatic solution to prevent their development of nuclear capabilities. Despite Iranian acceptance in exchange for the removal of sanctions, the International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran likely maintains undeclared nuclear material. It is believed that in early 2023 they enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels and are suspected to have conducted nuclear tests in the past month.
The Democrats initially sought to castigate Saudi Arabia for its breach of liberal international norms, with Harris’ calls for a “fundamental re-evaluation of US-Saudi ties” in 2019 and Biden’s condemnation of Khashoggi’s murder in 2022. Despite this rhetoric, no concrete changes have been made to the alliance, and the relationship remains static.
Signing of the Abraham Accords / Source: Flikr
What is to come?
Trump’s Likely Middle-Eastern Foreign Policy
A Trump victory in the upcoming election would likely see a return to a US foreign policy of pragmatic isolationism in the Middle East. The Republican leader has formerly positioned the country as a power broker, demonstrating minimal interest in directly interfering with regional affairs. Consistent with this approach, the current conflict will result in increased strategic autonomy for Israel to conduct its military operations. Given the political climate in the foreseeable future, it is unlikely a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will receive significant attention. Once de-escalation has been achieved in the region, Trump will likely resume his diplomatic efforts to normalise relations between Muslim countries and Israel through the Abraham Accords, which was perceived by his administration as a necessary step to achieve a solution to the conflict.
While a Trump administration would likely avoid direct intervention in the region, his strong pro-Israel stance suggests a more hawkish foreign policy approach, particularly towards Iran. Building on his previous tenure, it is expected that Trump would continue efforts to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program, undermine the Islamic Republic's support for regional proxies, and abandon the JCPOA, imposing even harsher sanctions in its place. Beyond limited US strikes on key Iranian targets, such as the previous killing of IRGC General Soleimani in 2020, a largely ‘hands-off’ approach can be expected, relegating the majority of these efforts instead to an emboldened Israel. Nevertheless, it is conceivable that Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities would cross a line, as this could result in a spike in oil prices, degrading energy security across the globe.
On the diplomatic front, the Republican has previously worked to establish robust ties with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are expected to strengthen with his potential return to office. In contrast with the Biden administration, which has previously withheld arms sales to Saudi Arabia due to the country’s conduct against the Houthis in Yemen, greater leniency on its military actions can be expected. In line with Trump’s isolationist inclination and warmer relations with the Saudis, it is anticipated that he would bolster arms exports without direct military involvement in the region.
Harris’ Likely Middle-Eastern Foreign Policy
A Harris presidency will likely continue the status quo of liberal interventionism in the Middle East. Prioritising temperance and regional stability, the Democrats’ stance will likely focus on pressuring Israel to accept a ceasefire deal with the broader objective of achieving a Two-State Solution and preventing further civilian casualties in Gaza. Aligning with Biden’s stance on Iran, Harris is expected to make her support of Israel conditional on the Jewish State’s adherence to international norms, as well as restraint in potential attacks on Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities.
Concerning US-Iran relations, it is also highly likely that her administration will attempt to revive the JCPOA deal as an alternative to a military solution to Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Whilst Harris has vowed to “never hesitate” to take “whatever action is necessary” to safeguard US forces and interests from either Iran or Iranian-backed militias, how this would be implemented is unclear. Sanctions on Iran, particularly on oil exports, will likely continue as seen under the Biden administration, while changes to US-Iran relations are unlikely.
Amidst souring US-Saudi relations under the Biden administration, Harris has previously remarked that a 'fundamental re-evaluation' of Washington and Riyadh's ties in light of American values and interests is necessary. With no significant shift in her stance since then, a thaw in relations appears unlikely. Under Biden, the Houthis were removed from, and later reinstated to, the list of recognised terrorist organisations. If this designation remains under Harris, it could open the door to limited US-Saudi cooperation in addressing the Iran-backed militia in Yemen. However, given that the US has sporadically halted arms sales to Saudi Arabia over the past four years, a broader alignment between US and Saudi strategies is unlikely in the near future.
Multipolarisation in the Middle East
The broader international context also ought to be considered. The advent of multipolarity has notably redefined relations between the US-led world order and non-Western powers, positioning US foreign policy as evermore important in navigating mounting global challenges. Uniquely, the Middle East region serves as a critical intersection for major state actors to project influence. The foreign policy strategies of Harris and Trump will be important in shaping the regional order, namely whether they consider competing or cooperating with other powers to ensure regional stability – or perhaps to retreat from the region altogether.
As expected, cooperation between Washington, Moscow and Beijing is increasingly unlikely. Russia has developed close ties with Western adversaries in the region, most notably Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, alongside forming a strategic alliance with Iran. Though China has avoided direct military involvement in the region, an expansion of its economic engagement doctrine has positioned Beijing as a major actor. In reality, souring US-China relations in the Asia-Pacific makes it unlikely for America, regardless of a Republican or Democrat administration, to cooperate in ensuring stability in the region.
Further complicating multipolarity in the region is the role of intergovernmental organisations, such as BRICS+, which are continuing to cement Russian and Chinese alliances with various Global South nations, most significantly with Iran and potentially Syria. The prospect of a Middle East led by a Russian-Chinese coalition is therefore more viable than one with the US, should its influence in the region continue to diminish. By extension, the upcoming election will be critical in not only determining how America can positively shape the region, but also in ascertaining its relative power and influence in a multipolar world.
China and the Normalisation of Saudi-Iranian Relations / Source: Free Malaysia Today
