200 Militants Killed in Clash, Marking Ongoing Infighting Between Boko Haram and ISWAP in Northeast Nigeria

By Sarah Ambrose | 26 November 2025


Summary

  • A clash between Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in northeast Nigeria on 9 November 2025 resulted in the deaths of over 200 fighters, with ISWAP reportedly suffering more losses.

  • The recent clash is the latest of an ongoing resurgence in violence as Boko Haram works to reclaim territory from its Islamist rivals.

  • It is highly likely that Boko Haram will continue to consolidate and gain power in the region through its attacks in the coming months.


Context

In a continuation of disputes between Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), over 200 fighters were killed in a clash between the two groups in Borno State of northeast Nigeria on 9 November 2025. The violence occurred in the Lake Chad Basin region, which includes regions of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. Numerous jihadist militant groups operate out of the region, taking advantage of lax border regulations, military weaknesses, and criminal networks across the Lake Chad Basin. In recent years, severe flooding has occurred in the Lake Chad Basin, diverting government resources away from counterterrorism and into emergency response. The high level of casualties in the 9 November clash emphasises the increased volatility of Islamist infighting as both Boko Haram and ISWAP were reported to have used armed drones in their attacks.


Implications

The deadly clash represents an ongoing issue of violent infighting within the Sahel region following the resurgence of Boko Haram in recent months. The group’s presence declined in the late 2010s following extensive counterterrorism campaigns by the Nigerian government and taxing disputes with ISWAP. ISWAP was formed in 2016 as a splinter group out of Boko Haram, and the two have fought over territorial dominance since. A resurgence in Boko Haram poses significant security threats to the region, with violence frequently spilling over across national borders. The four states sharing borders in the Lake Chad Basin previously collaborated on the Multinational Joint Task Force to combat terrorism in the region; however, its effectiveness has been weakened in recent years by strained relations between countries and their ultimate withdrawal from the region. With less coordinated counterterrorism measures, the region can expect continued violence from jihadist groups, who frequently target civilians. In recent months, over 100 civilians, primarily women and children, have been abducted in northern Nigeria. 

Throughout November, Nigeria has increased their domestic counterterrorism operations in response to the increase in attacks. In a statement on 14 November 2025, the Nigerian Army reported that recent efforts have killed numerous jihadist fighters, arrested 94 suspects, and rescued 67 kidnapping victims. While recent efforts have seen reported success, the military has also received criticism for their imprecise airstrikes that frequently cause civilian casualties. The rise in Boko Haram poses a threat to local civilians not just from jihadist activities but also from violent military counterinsurgency campaigns.

An increase in Boko Haram violence poses a political threat to the Nigerian government internationally. In recent weeks, United States President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Nigeria for the deaths of Christians at the hands of jihadist fighters. While Christians have been killed by Islamist groups in the region, a majority of Boko Haram’s victims have been Muslim, and the group primarily targets the military and government as opposed to religious institutions. A strengthened Boko Haram presence in northeast Nigeria provides Trump additional incentive to target Nigeria politically or militarily.

VOA/Wikimedia


Forecast

  • Short-term (Now - 3 months)

    • It is highly likely that Boko Haram will continue to clash with ISWAP in the short term, spurred on by the ongoing rise in violence between the two groups.

  • Medium-term (3-12 months)

    • It is unlikely that the United States will follow through with its threats of military action against Nigeria within the next year, as much of the current violence is between rivaling jihadist groups.

  • Long-term (>1 year)

    • There is a realistic possibility that, if Boko Haram continues to gain territorial control over the Lake Chad Basin, the affected countries will open new channels of communications and collaborate on future counterinsurgency campaigns.

    • There is a realistic possibility that the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) will coordinate a response to these militants in accordance with its security mandate.

BISI Probability Scale
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