Limited Agreement: Reconciling Indo-China Border Dispute
Janhavi Pathak | 23 January 2025
Summary
Mutual agreements on joint patrolling, disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction across the contested boundary have led to the resolution of the Indo-China border dispute.
Despite initial stability, border security will remain central to Indo-China bilateral relations. The success of border agreements will gradually consolidate economic and social ties, catalysing the movement of capital and people between the two nations.
Downsizing existing military buildups along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) will enable the strategic diversion of resources into more active zones and capability-building projects.
Historical Context
India and China share an almost 4,000 km un-demarcated notional border called the ‘Line of Actual Control’ (LAC), dividing Indian-controlled territories from Chinese-controlled regions. The de facto border has three geographical sectors, comprising disputed areas. The Indo-China relations have been marred by periodic border disputes, including the 1962 War.
The 2020 Galwan Valley clash between the two militaries over disputed regions in Ladakh resulted in mutual casualties and soured bilateral relations. Construction of surveillance infrastructure and armed patrolling on contested territories led to clashes, shared in viral images of Indian and Chinese soldiers holding sticks to defend their grounds. Military resources were diverted across the LAC, as buffer zones were created to limit conflict and avoid new confrontations. Tension and mistrust festered with India banning direct commercial flights, barring more than 300 Chinese apps (including TikTok) and tightening inbound Chinese investment screening.
Implications
Mutual agreement on joint patrolling and disengagement of Depsang and Demchok contested areas in Eastern Ladakh have eased political & military tensions between India and China. Four friction points remain to be discussed, under ongoing confidence-building efforts. New terms signal a shift from the earlier policy of unilateral patrolling by coordinating military efforts in disputed zones. Patrolling restrictions, including troop size, advance notice and frequency are placed to ensure stability, caution and trust between the two nations.
Economic pragmatism and transactional policy management figure heavily in this dispute resolution, with exchanges of patrolling access to earlier barred areas and rolling back of military buildups along the LAC. Downsizing military presence coincides with diverting resources strategically towards active or riskier zones. For China, this translates into greater resource availability for possible conflicts in the South and East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and potential conflicts with the Trump administration. India will aim to fortify its presence in the Indian Ocean and secure its Eastern and Western borders through infrastructural development.
Civilian and military projects will continue on both sides of the border, resulting in rising defence budgets and capital movement in the region. Easing political tensions will provide economic relief to investors by broadening cross-border investment and business opportunities and incentives. Fast visa approvals and resumption of flights will further ensure more people-to-people connections in the neighbouring counties.
The Discoverer/Wikimedia CC BY 3.0
Forecast
Medium-term
Indo-China political and economic ties will be tested based on the adherence to border security agreements. Cross-border business links, social movement and private investment will likely boost, facilitating capital transfers and civilian movement. National security will remain central in calibrating bilateral ties and fostering political trust amidst a resurgence in cross-border military build-ups and perceived threats.
Long-term
The next few years will likely witness border stability with chances of low-intensity isolated skirmishes on mutually claimed territories. Military and civilian infrastructure projects will surge parallel with both countries' defence budgets and capital expenditures to fortify border security and sustain deterrence. Further de-escalation, disengagement, and de-induction of disputed regions and friction points will likely be achieved through similar restrictive agreements.