Lebanon and the War in Gaza
Kira Persson | 30 January 2024
Summary
Border clashes and military threats between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon have raised tensions between the two countries to one of the highest levels since the 2006 Lebanon War, narrowing the window for a diplomatic solution.
The dysfunctional nature of Lebanon’s political system makes any agreement with Israel difficult to reach and commit.
War in Gaza and the extended Middle East conflict can be a tipping point for Lebanon, driving it into prolonged chaos and de facto division.
Lebanon is balancing decades of political corruption, one of the most severe economic crises in recent history, and an intensifying regional conflict. Attempts at much-needed economic reform, largely with help from IMF, have been repeatedly obstructed by political elites, including the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah. Making matters worse, the country has been without a president for over a year.
As violence in Gaza intensifies, so do tensions between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah has increased its rocket-firing into Israel (allegedly in response to the killing of a senior Hamas leader in Beirut earlier this month), and concerns over conflict escalation along Israel’s northern border have deepened. While the U.S. attempts to broker a solution, the window for averting all-out war narrows. Earlier this month, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, said he believes the people of Lebanon do not want an escalation of the crisis. Hezbollah has stated that it does not want to escalate the war but will not shy away from doing so if required.
Trust in Lebanon’s fragmented political system is low, both domestically and internationally. The dysfunctional nature of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing government and its proneness to deadlock render policymaking nearly impossible. This has been evident in attempts at economic and political reform, and makes a diplomatic solution with Israel near impossible. With trust already lacking between the two countries, Lebanon’s fragile political climate and the absence of legitimate leadership makes any type of agreement difficult to reach and harder to commit to, even with the presence of third-party guarantees. Yet, with the economy in freefall, Lebanon’s ability to absorb another conflict is limited.
Piotr Chrobot/Unsplash
Forecast
Short-term: Rocket exchange between Israel and Hezbollah, with the latter increasingly targeting more sensitive locations in Israel. Government dysfunction will likely prevent any long-term agreement from being reached and fully implemented.
Medium-term: Hezbollah will increasingly use the war in Gaza and clashes with Israel to portray itself as an important resistance force against Israel, especially as Lebanese elections await.
Long-term: Iran will likely strengthen Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon, as an important regional proxy. Prolonged national crisis risks buttressing sectarian tensions, political outbidding, and the rise of extremist groups with reliance on external actors. This would suggest a bleak outlook for Lebanon as a de facto independent country.