Ranson Lo | 9 October 2024

Summary

• Shigeru Ishiba is set to become the next Japanese Prime Minister (PM) after winning the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership election, the governing party in parliament.

• Shigeru, a parliament member (MP) and former defence and agricultural minister, defeated conservative candidate Sanae Takachi in the run-off. Shigeru is one of the most popular figures among LDP MPs and nationwide members.

• Shigeru’s hawkish stance on defence policy will likely be a continuation of the current PM, Fumio’s plans to improve military capabilities and push to rearm the Self-Defense Forces.

Japan’s long-term governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held the leadership election on 27 September, following the incumbent leader and PM Fumio Kishida’s decision to step down in mid-August. Fumio, who has been in office since October 2021 has been deeply unpopular after scandals of unreported campaign funds within the party and reports of the MP’s close ties with the controversial Unification Church, which came into light following the former PM Abe Shinzo’s assassination in July 2022.

Shigeru Ishiba, the former defence and agricultural minister and vocal critic of Fumio and Abe, defeated the right-wing conservative candidate Sanae Takachi in a narrow leadership run-off. Given the LDP’s position as the governing party and parliamentary majority (290 out of 465 seats), Shigeru will become the new PM following a largely symbolic confirmation by the National Diet (Japan’s parliament). Following his appointment by the parliament, Shigeru dissolved the legislature and scheduled the election on 27 October.

Given Shigeru’s background, one of his major platforms is the advocacy for a stronger defence policy and capabilities for the island nation. Despite the criticism of his predecessors, Shigeru supported reforming the defence policy and regulations. Japan’s Self Defense Forces (SDF), instead of a military, have been significantly restricted since the end of the Second World War, as Article 9 of the Constitution explicitly banned Japan’s capacity to wage war. Abe initiated talks to repeal constitutional restraints amid soured relations with China, which was given further life by Fumio following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and escalating tension in the East China Sea. Shigeru supports expanding SDF’s defence capabilities, as well as lowering reliance on the United States by establishing a NATO-style regional defence bloc, raising concerns in Washington and potentially straining bilateral relations.

Shigeru’s victory will also likely see Japan join its G7 partners in revamping nuclear energy. Despite internal opposition within the LDP, expanding nuclear plants to replace fossil fuels has regained support in recent years after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. 30% of the country’s energy was generated from nuclear reactors prior to the disaster, and Shigeru aims to recommission these plants to safeguard Japan’s energy security. Shigeru also perceived the return to nuclear energy as a major pillar in bolstering the country’s stagnating economy with the influx of cheap energy sources and attracting foreign investment.

However, despite Shigeru’s victory and the LDP’s control over the Diet, they do not guarantee a smooth governance for the new PM. Shigeru’s vocal criticism of his predecessors, which remains popular among the LDP members despite popular dissent, has stoked further division within the party, which has been plagued by long-term factionalism. Therefore, Shigeru must seize the momentum and prioritise popular domestic policy, such as revamping the economy and strengthening the SDF to appease internal dissidents and unite the LDP. Failing to do so would further damage the public’s confidence in the party and the government, which could see LDP attaining a slimmer majority in the next election, which has to be called before July 2025, and potentially costing Shigeru’s role as the PM and party’s leader.

Forecast

• Short-term

• LDP will highly likely win the parliamentary election in October with a majority.

• Shigeru will likely prioritise advancing the establishment of a stronger defence policy, as it has been his priority and a popular issue among voters. A successful draft and implementation could offer Shigeru a stronger leadership role and higher LDP approval rates in the next parliamentary election in 2025.

• Medium-term

  • Shigeru will likely continue Fumio’s assertive defence policy and plan to rearm Japan’s SDP. This policy will likely improve regional defence coordination between the democracies in East Asia, specifically between Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

  • Shigeru will likely face difficulties unifying the LDP, which has been fractured since Abe Shinzo's assassination in 2022. Despite LDP’s entrenched political control and Shigeru’s popularity among voters, failure to resolve the situation will likely weaken LDP’s electoral position and prospects in the upcoming elections.

• Long-term

  • Shigeru’s government will likely continue to support nuclear power and transition to renewable energy, despite internal opposition within the LDP, following the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant incident in 2011.

  • Despite the lack of US support, Shigeru will likely continue advocating for the establishment of an Asia-Pacific version of NATO to strengthen Japan’s position amid China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy.