2024 Sri Lanka Presidential Election
Kira Persson | 10 October 2024
Summary
On 21 September, Sri Lanka held its ninth presidential election. The left-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake emerged as a winner with his socialist National People's Power (NPP) alliance.
Economic recovery and anti-corruption were core issues in the election, which Dissanayake has pledged to prioritise.
Dissanayake’s victory marked a significant shift in Sri Lankan politics, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the traditional political establishment.
Country Profile
Economy
GDP: 84.36 billion USD (2023)
GDP per capita: 3,828 USD (2023)
HDI: 0.78 (2022)
Official currency: Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR)
Demography
Population: 23.16 million (2024)
Ethnic composition (2012)
74.9% Sinhala
11.2% Tamil, 9.2% Moor
Electoral System
Sri Lanka’s electoral system combines proportional representation, preferential voting, and a directly elected executive president.
The Parliament has 225 seats:
Members are elected through a combination of district-based proportional representation and a national list.
Members serve five-year terms.
The President is directly elected for a five-year term using preferential voting:
Voters rank up to three candidates in order of preference.
Candidates must receive more than 50% of votes to win. If this threshold is not met, a run-off occurs between the two candidates with the most votes.
The Prime Minister is appointed by the President.
Major Political Parties & Candidates
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)
Candidate: Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the socialist alliance National People's Power (NPP).
The NPP is a leftist alliance led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a Marxist-Leninist political party with Dissanayake as its leader.
The NPP has positioned itself as a clean alternative to the two main political families (the Rajapaksas and Wickremesinghes).
Ranil Wickremesinghe (Independent)
Incumbent president Wickremesinghe was appointed President after the political crisis in 2022.
Wickremesinghe's leadership has been marked by efforts to stabilise the country’s economy and manage the debt crisis. While a seasoned politician, including multiple terms as Prime Minister, he has received critique for his authoritarian tendencies.
Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB)
Candidate: Sajith Premadasa, Leader of the Opposition since 2019.
Left-centrist political party, largely composed of members who broke away from the United National Party (UNP).
SJB has positioned itself as the main opposition, focusing on social welfare programs, economic reform, and fighting corruption.
On 21 September, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the socialist alliance National People's Power (NPP) won Sri Lanka's presidential election. This marked the first time in the country's history that a third-party candidate was elected president, signalling a shift away from traditional political parties. It was also the first time no winner emerged in the first vote count — Dissanayake won with 56% of votes in a second-round runoff against Premadasa.
The presidential race had two focal points —economic recovery and anti-corruption. In 2022, Sri Lanka experienced its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948. The country defaulted on its foreign debt and saw shortages of essential goods, including fuel, food, and medicine. Poverty rates more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, rising from 11.3% to 25.9%. In March 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a USD 3b bailout for Sri Lanka, with conditions requiring economic reforms and restructuring. While such reforms are underway, recovery has been slow and challenging. Economic hardship has been primarily blamed on years of sweeping tax cuts, weak exports, foreign debt accumulation, COVID-19, and its impact on the tourism industry.
Sri Lanka has seen increased discontentment with a political elite out of touch with the public. Anger has been directed at the Rajapaksa family, which has ruled the country for over a decade. In 2022, this discontent and economic hardship culminated in the Aragalaya (Sinhala for “struggle”) and the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. While his successor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, was somewhat successful in stabilising the economy, he faced criticism for his ties to the Rajapaksas. He also demonstrated authoritarian tendencies when drafting security and media laws, including the Online Safety Act and the Anti-Terrorism Act, to suppress dissidents.
It was in the context of 2022 that Dissanayake’s NPP gained prominence, as a counterweight to the traditional political establishment. In the 2024 election campaign, Dissanayake promised to root out entrenched corruption and revitalise the economy by, amongst other initiatives, developing manufacturing, agriculture, and IT sectors. Importantly, the IMF reforms deliver challenges that must be addressed — the poor and middle class have been disproportionately affected by both the economic crisis and the reforms aiming to alleviate it. Dissanayake has also pledged to renegotiate the terms of the IMF agreement to reduce the strain of austerity measures on working people.
Dissanayake faces multiple challenges in fulfilling his promises. Sri Lanka’s institutional capacity, including tax collection, remains weak. Dissanayake’s government must also ensure that the drawbacks and advantages resulting from the IMF reforms are distributed more evenly across society. Further, the JVP faces scepticism due to its violent past as an insurgency group, particularly in the 1970s and 80s. Under Dissanayake's leadership, there have been efforts to moderate the party’s image and present it as a legitimate parliamentary force committed to democratic processes. Nevertheless, a violent history, little government experience and a seemingly scarce policy platform, may pose obstacles to progress. There has also been a massive exodus of people from Sri Lanka, including doctors, engineers, IT professionals, academics and other highly qualified individuals, causing a brain drain in the country. An important task will be to attract these professionals back or find and retain suitable replacements to allow long-term development.
The 2024 presidential election thus marks a pivotal moment in Sri Lankan politics. Dissanayake and the NPP’s success is a clear departure from traditional political dynamics and reflects a strong desire for change among the electorate. However, the new government faces formidable challenges in addressing economic issues, implementing essential domestic reforms, and navigating complex international relations. Dissanayake has made efforts to improve relations with India—a top trading partner—and will have to maintain this pragmatic relationship without alienating China. The new government will also have to deal with economic dependencies on both major powers carefully. While the risk of reverting to debt and socio-political instability remains, this election presents an opportunity for Sri Lanka to chart a course towards long-term recovery and development. The key to success lies in fostering political transparency and inclusive economic growth that benefits all segments of society.
Bunty456 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Forecast
Short-term
Dissanayake will likely seek renegotiation of IMF terms, potentially straining relationships with international creditors. Dissanayake's government will need to carefully balance fulfilling campaign promises to voters with maintaining the confidence of international creditors.
The close election results may increase the risk of domestic political unrest. To prevent this, Dissanayake's government must work to build consensus and maintain stability.
The election result will likely have a limited impact on India-Sri Lankan relations, with economic and diplomatic ties being maintained.
Long-term
The long-term success of economic restructuring will depend on implementing reforms that benefit the wider population. While anti-corruption efforts largely resonate with the public, resistance across the government is probable.
Brain drain risks affecting critical sectors such as education, healthcare, technology, and finance, reducing the quality of services as well as innovation and economic growth.
Sri Lanka's strategic location in the Indian Ocean will likely continue to attract international interest, including from India, China, and Japan. How the country navigates these relationships will shape its long-term economic and geopolitical trajectory.
